[Daniel_Plainview]

Jobless Claims Soar by 18,000, Breaking Past the 400K Barrier to 409,000

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 409,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 391,000. The 4-week moving average was 410,750, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 414,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent for the week ending Dec. 25, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 25 was 4,103,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,150,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,122,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,125,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 577,279 in the week ending Jan. 1, an increase of 52,038 from the previous week. There were 645,446 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent during the week ending Dec. 25, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,390,661, an increase of 273,882 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.2 percent and the volume was 5,484,997. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Dec. 18 was 8,765,952.

[copious.abundance]

Here's the latest chart. Still on a clear downtrend the past few months or so.

[Armageddon]

500,000 people per month are falling off the 99 week program. These people are no longer counted and now have no income. It won't take long before things start esculating out of control. Millions of jobs will be lost in 2011 by the budget crises in most states. Buckle up buddy boy, things are about to get interesting. Unless you are one of those morons who thinks they can print money forever.

[vision-master]

One expert (no I can't remember who) on mainstream news said it may take 40 years for a recovery.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'O')ne expert (no I can't remember who) on mainstream news said it may take 40 years for a recovery.

[vision-master]

The USA has enough oil to last 100 years!

They have been saving it........

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '5')00,000 people per month are falling off the 99 week program. These people are no longer counted and now have no income.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'B')uckle up buddy boy, things are about to get interesting.

[joewp]

Well now, this doesn't look very good...

December jobs report: Payrolls up, unemployment rates falls - Jan. 7, 2011
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The economy added 103,000 jobs in December -- falling short of most expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate sunk to 9.4%, its lowest level since May 2009, confusing some economists.
...
Discouraged workers in December ticked up to 1.3 million, with those workers falling off the the unemployment rate calculations.

About 260,000 adults dropped out of the labor force for various reasons, and were no longer counted as unemployed by the government. The overall participation rate in the U.S. labor force fell to a new recession low of 64.3%.

"Incredibly, the U.S. labor force is now smaller than it was before the recession started, though it should have grown by over 4 million workers to keep up with working-age population growth over this period," said economist Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute.

[Chuckmak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'B')uckle up buddy boy, things are about to get interesting.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'B')uckle up buddy boy, things are about to get interesting.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'B')uckle up buddy boy, things are about to get interesting.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Jobless claims soar by 35,000 to 445K as double-dip takes foothold

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT7

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 445,000, an increase of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 410,000. The 4-week moving average was 416,500, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 411,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Jan. 1, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 1 was 3,879,000, a decrease of 248,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,127,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,056,500, a decrease of 72,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,128,500.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 770,413 in the week ending Jan. 8, an increase of 191,686 from the previous week. There were 815,593 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.8 percent during the week ending Jan. 1, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,766,951, an increase of 351,439 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.6 percent and the volume was 6,013,891.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Dec. 25 was 9,193,838.

Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin, during the week ending Dec. 25.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,922 in the week ending Jan. 1, a decrease of 308 from the prior week. There were 2,042 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 208 from the preceding week.

There were 49,772 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Dec. 25, an increase of 2,659 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 41,865, an increase of 1,297 from the prior week.

States reported 3,773,092 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Dec. 25, an increase of 195,429 from the prior week. There were 4,980,124 claimants in the comparable week in 2009. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Dec. 25 were in Alaska (7.5 percent), Oregon (5.2), Idaho (5.1), Montana (4.9), Wisconsin (4., Pennsylvania (4.7), Puerto Rico (4.6), Nevada (4.5), Illinois (4.4), and Michigan (4.3).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Jan. 1 were in Georgia (+11,997), Michigan (+10,129), Pennsylvania (+9,004), New York (+8,379), and Wisconsin (+7,236), while the largest decreases were in California (-13,694), Florida (-1,867), Nevada (-972), Kansas (-841), and New Mexico (-721).

[Daniel_Plainview]

Karl Denninger's spin: "This is unambiguously bad - extended benefits AND initial benefits both up materially, and note that this was a week during which people said that the claims numbers were generally "good". Nope. Wake up folks - the supposed "economic expansion" is complete crap and is all government blowing money they don't have. The end of that rope is approaching. Fast. And the floor of the canyon we're rappelling down is 500' below us."

[copious.abundance]

Daniel is making the exact same mistake Sixstrings made when he started this thread.

And BTW, not that any doomer types will be willing to take this into account, but the first full week of January always has the largest NSA initial claims count.



It will probably fall by at least 100K next week. Of course the doomer types won't mention that when it occurs.

[dolanbaker]

But those charts only show people joining the dole queue, It doesn't show them leaving it!
Even if you take out the seasional factor, the rate is still high.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'D')aniel is making the exact same mistake Sixstrings made when he started this thread.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'D')aniel is making the exact same mistake Sixstrings made when he started this thread.

[copious.abundance]

BTW, here's another little goody for you doomer types.

Last year, in the first full week of January (w/e 1/9/2010), the NSA number was 802,573.
This year, for the corresponding week (w/e 1/8/2011) the NSA number was 770,413.
In other words, this year the NSA number was 32,180 (4%) smaller than the same week last year.
Data

Last year, in the first full week of January (w/e 1/9/2010), the SA number was 444,000.
This year, for the corresponding week (w/e 1/8/2011) the SA number was 445,000.
Data

In other words, with a smaller unadjusted number than last year, the Labor Department's seasonal adjustment process came up with a larger adjusted headline number than last year! Yes that's right folks, the Labor Department actually made the headline number worse this year compared to last year. If they had applied the same percentages to this year's number that they did for the same week last year, the headline SA number out today would have been 426K instead of 445K. Do the math yourself and you'll see what I mean.

[AirlinePilot]

OF,

You just don't seem to get it. The patient is still hemorrhaging and has been left on the table without help. If you cannot understand that these numbers are BAD then there really is no point in arguing. We are still a long way from any of these numbers being "good" or even normal. If you can say that in light of the trillions of dollars the Gov't is blowing, WHICH IT DOESN'T HAVE, in order to right a completely failing economy then I guess you are incapable of understanding why these numbers are not good. With the amounts that have been blown already, and in light of QE1 and QE2, results such as these are nothing short of DISMAL.

It's going to take FAR longer than the Government has money to fix what is wrong. On top of that they haven't solved any of the core problems which put us here in the first place. They are NOT changing the trajectory of GDP contrary to your fallacious arguments.