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question for shortonsense

What's on your mind?
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 07 Feb 2010, 20:00:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phildo', '
')For fantasy family fun vacations, I figure visiting these folks in Montana would be the thing (Mrs. Phildo does not concur :-D ) >>>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutterite


I bet such a philosophy goes over like gang busters in Texas.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 07 Feb 2010, 20:34:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')I'm toast if I have to stand up against any of them. (The good news is I probably won't even know I lost). :)



You can come down here! :)
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 07 Feb 2010, 20:40:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')they appear to be extremely Luddite influenced.



Wow, with folks like patience and PeakOiler, what I would consider almost anti-Luddite, a couple of the most active and useful posters in the Planning Forum, I guess I wonder what threads you're looking at....?

Is gardening or farming considered "Luddite" these days? Or installing PV? 8O That's mostly what people post about in that forum. Not much Rambo training. :roll:
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 07 Feb 2010, 20:49:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')they appear to be extremely Luddite influenced.



Wow, with folks like patience and PeakOiler, what I would consider almost anti-Luddite, a couple of the most active and useful posters in the Planning Forum, I guess I wonder what threads you're looking at....?


Really? I am familiar, slightly, with patience's story, but not PeakOiler, maybe if he's the same guy who did the EROEI modeling which Oily has had so much fun with? In either case, they weren't on my mind when I wrote the sentence.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 07 Feb 2010, 20:56:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')they appear to be extremely Luddite influenced.



Wow, with folks like patience and PeakOiler, what I would consider almost anti-Luddite, a couple of the most active and useful posters in the Planning Forum, I guess I wonder what threads you're looking at....?


Really? I am familiar, slightly, with patience's story, but not PeakOiler, maybe if he's the same guy who did the EROEI modeling which Oily has had so much fun with? In either case, they weren't on my mind when I wrote the sentence.



I was looking at that forum just now, and saw no threads about Luddism or Rambo training anywhere near the top. Can you give some examples of these threads?

Thanks.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 07 Feb 2010, 22:34:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')I was looking at that forum just now, and saw no threads about Luddism or Rambo training anywhere near the top. Can you give some examples of these threads?

Thanks.


Sure...although really, I could also make the argument that even some of the basic "back to earth" movements ( let alone Powerdown nonsense from the likes of Heinberg ) are almost by definition Luddite ( using the definition provided by Mirriam of course, "one who is opposed to especially technological change" )...but anyway....



Prepare to Barter...to heck with currency!

Grinding grain is great exercise!

Eat roadkill! Save ammo!

Why buy socks, knit your own!

Communal ovens for everyone! Can you see these in New York?

Directions to make a wooden spoon even a Doomer could follow...with pics in case of confusion over what a saw is!

And Rambo stuff? Rambo? With that one you MUST be kidding!
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 08 Feb 2010, 04:04:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phildo', ' ')By the time you get to the Dieoff.org level, you have pretty much reach All-Dingbats-All-The-Time, mho.


That is absolute crap. Please link to a 'Dingbat' article in dieoff.org? Just coz u don't like it or think it's evil or not good or whatever (talk about a universe in black and white); don't make it 'dingbat' material.
(Sorry to interupt Shorty, feel free to harp with this geezer if you like, please include links from dieoff.org!)
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 08 Feb 2010, 09:16:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Prepare to Barter...to heck with currency!

Grinding grain is great exercise!

Eat roadkill! Save ammo!

Why buy socks, knit your own!

Communal ovens for everyone! Can you see these in New York?

Directions to make a wooden spoon even a Doomer could follow...with pics in case of confusion over what a saw is!



So bartering, frugality, and making stuff yourself is Luddism.

Okey dokey. :|
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 08 Feb 2010, 09:18:31

Regarding the Rambo thing, I think you might be confusing the Planning forum with the Self Defense forum.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 08 Feb 2010, 11:14:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phildo', ' ')By the time you get to the Dieoff.org level, you have pretty much reach All-Dingbats-All-The-Time, mho.


That is absolute crap. Please link to a 'Dingbat' article in dieoff.org?


Geez, when is someone going to ask a TOUGH one?

This was one of the dumbest concepts ever put forth into peaker land...

http://dieoff.org/page125.htm

How about the 3rd figure down the page, did you know that 2008 was DAY OF THE DEAD!!! With skeletons and everything!

http://dieoff.org/

This one isn't a dingbat class thought, but its linked from dieoff.org and shows why Colin spends more time keeping his head down so people won't continually throw his own predictions back into his face.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')(Sorry to interupt Shorty, feel free to harp with this geezer if you like, please include links from dieoff.org!)


S'all right.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 08 Feb 2010, 11:24:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')So bartering, frugality, and making stuff yourself is Luddism.

Okey dokey. :|


The general definition of Luddism that I am familiar with revolves around the rejection of modern technology in favor of...well....older and simpler and less technological solutions. I hope I didn't attach a connotation that it is "bad" in the moral sense, because it isn't.

Certainly any movement backwards into what most of us might describe as a "simpler" life might satisfy many people with its appeal, the days when our children didn't use phones with more computing power than actual computers ( at least when I was growing up ). TV's with 100's of channels, cars you talk to with computers, heck, some cars nowadays ARE computers on wheels, the speed with which information now flows around us, entertainment somehow being confused with reality TV, I certainly can understand the desire by many to "powerdown" or build wooden spoons as nearly a way to maintain a connection with how we grew up, or as a way to avoid what the world has become.

I think this feeling, and for some the unease which is undoubtedly entails, whether it qualifies strictly as Luddism or not, drives quite a bit of the peak oil debate as well. Not explicitly perhaps, but the entire powerdown/transition town angles certainly seem to fall into this category.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 08 Feb 2010, 11:49:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phildo', ' ')By the time you get to the Dieoff.org level, you have pretty much reach All-Dingbats-All-The-Time, mho.


That is absolute crap. Please link to a 'Dingbat' article in dieoff.org?


Geez, when is someone going to ask a TOUGH one?

This was one of the dumbest concepts ever put forth into peaker land...

http://dieoff.org/page125.htm

How about the 3rd figure down the page, did you know that 2008 was DAY OF THE DEAD!!! With skeletons and everything!

http://dieoff.org/

This one isn't a dingbat class thought, but its linked from dieoff.org and shows why Colin spends more time keeping his head down so people won't continually throw his own predictions back into his face.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')(Sorry to interupt Shorty, feel free to harp with this geezer if you like, please include links from dieoff.org!)


S'all right.


His major pedictions for timelines have not been too far off so far. Yep he has messed up several, a lot less than Nostradamus did. I am not calling the dude 'Oh Great One'' I am merely taking offense to the original "all dingbats all the time' quote. I prefer sites and writers which refrain from making predictions per se, as I prefer to be provided with checkable facts and left to decide for myself what they might mean. If you read the revelation in the bible there are some pretty wild predictions with imprecise timelines also; which Phildo would I gues not choose to label as 'all dingbat, all the time.'.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 08 Feb 2010, 13:38:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')His major pedictions for timelines have not been too far off so far. Yep he has messed up several, a lot less than Nostradamus did. I am not calling the dude 'Oh Great One'' I am merely taking offense to the original "all dingbats all the time' quote.


Fortunately, that wasn't me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')If you read the revelation in the bible there are some pretty wild predictions with imprecise timelines also; which Phildo would I gues not choose to label as 'all dingbat, all the time.'.


The Bible is great reading....certainly I never worried about any predictions contained within it unless strict acolytes were to show up at my doorstep and try and enforce their will upon me based on their interpretation of it. Certainly quite a few of the circular peak references qualify as all dingbat, all the time ( names withheld to protect beat cops and social commentators with no experience in the sciences ) while others can be quite the scholarly dissertation.

It is quite noticable to outsiders that some of these references are relied on heavily, and others are virtually ignored, and this distinction appears to be based upon the enthusiasm one has for the conclusions, rather than any study of the actual thought contained within the work..

For example, have you ever seen anyone quoting "The Battle for Barrels" by Duncan Clark? Of course not. AAPG peer reviewed articles on the topic, like "Energy Resources, Cornocopia or Empty Barrel?" by P. McCabe? Much of anything from Natural Resources Research? Occasionally at best. Work by real scientists on the topic isn't hard to find...but for some reason, the circular reference gang with their incessant ( and obviously faulted ) predictions seem to prevail, and this certainly propagates the idea of a dingbat brigade. IMHO.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby Phildo » Tue 09 Feb 2010, 02:53:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', ' ')If you read the revelation in the bible there are some pretty wild predictions with imprecise timelines also; which Phildo would I gues not choose to label as 'all dingbat, all the time.'.



Don't be too sure about that. :-D :-D

When I think about some of "Great Texas Religious Minds" like say David Koresh or Jim Hagee who obsess over The Book of Revelations -- I tend to think "All-Total-Frickin' Whack-Jobs-All-The-Time" anytime someone starts into that. :-D :-D

Serious question? Why would you think I would prefer one flavor of Whack Job over another? Keep in mind I am fresh out from LATOC -- aka "doomers.us." I have had more than enough of Nut Cases for more than a while. Is a respect for sanity (and concurrent distaste for lunacy) such a bad thing?
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 09 Feb 2010, 04:02:18

Ok Phildo as long as you are into equality, I'm ok with you despising whack jobs as long as you despise them all equally 8)
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 10 Feb 2010, 01:44:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')So bartering, frugality, and making stuff yourself is Luddism.

Okey dokey. :|


The general definition of Luddism that I am familiar with revolves around the rejection of modern technology in favor of...well....older and simpler and less technological solutions. I hope I didn't attach a connotation that it is "bad" in the moral sense, because it isn't.

Certainly any movement backwards into what most of us might describe as a "simpler" life might satisfy many people with its appeal, the days when our children didn't use phones with more computing power than actual computers ( at least when I was growing up ). TV's with 100's of channels, cars you talk to with computers, heck, some cars nowadays ARE computers on wheels, the speed with which information now flows around us, entertainment somehow being confused with reality TV, I certainly can understand the desire by many to "powerdown" or build wooden spoons as nearly a way to maintain a connection with how we grew up, or as a way to avoid what the world has become.

I think this feeling, and for some the unease which is undoubtedly entails, whether it qualifies strictly as Luddism or not, drives quite a bit of the peak oil debate as well. Not explicitly perhaps, but the entire powerdown/transition town angles certainly seem to fall into this category.


As a general rule, I think society is reaching a point where technology is moving ahead faster than cultures can adapt.

If one thinks about it in a historical context, there have always been cycles of optimism and pessimism about progress.

The post war years were filled with optimism about the future of America but also concerns about Soviet ambitions. The 1960s had the Great Society and the Civil Rights Movement but also the Vietnam War. The economic and cultural stagnation of the 1970s was followed by the boom years of the 1980s/1990s. The internet bubble and Pax Americana of the 1990s was followed by 9/11 and the War on Terrorism. The housing boom was followed by the housing bust and the credit crisis.

Everything moves in cycles. During the rough patches, people begin questioning the fundamentals of their society. This questioning leads to innovations that allow the next boom to occur.

There are some who look at something like the "Great Recession" and conclude that we must powerdown and return to the farms. There were those who said the same about the stagflation of the 1970s and the Great Depression.

There are others who look at situations like ours and see opportunities. It is these people who pull us out of rough patches.

People can only handle a certain amount of change in a given time period. People begin demanding a slowdown so that they can cope. The important thing is that society balances the needs of innovators with the needs of reactionaries.

Societies that are too open for too long risk causing such strain on their cultural/economic systems that they trigger a nasty backlash from the threatened native populations. Societies that shut themselves off from the rest of the world for too long, stagnate.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby Vogelzang » Sun 26 Dec 2010, 19:47:32

We need coal to liquids now!
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby scas » Mon 27 Dec 2010, 01:55:58

Judging future events through the lens of the past is hazardous. Those people marching to their deaths in WW1 surely expected a quick victory, and those entering WW2 had no idea of the extent of the war - perhaps assuming it to be no greater than WW1. How many imagined the nuclear bomb?

Similarly, the incorrect predictions of the past does not disprove a future event. If you were 100 years old, would you assume you were invincible because you had not died yet? Each passing year only brings you closer.

Most economists looking at humans populations through history would see the present condition as a bubble, and expect some form of "population correction", as they would call it.

Similarly, by examining organism population through history..it's hard to say when they crash. But systems work hardest before they fail. No one can say for sure how many people can live on planet earth indefinitely, but assuming that the number is much higher than present is simply a method of psychological distancing...and sometimes ecological reasons reduce carrying capacity, rather than population growth exceeding unchanging limits.

Peak energy is but one of many converging issues. Mother Nature is far older than Homo Sapiens...we can all learn from her.

The only way forward is to reduce energy wastage by the masses, and fund and accelerate scientific research exponentially.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 27 Dec 2010, 07:45:55

The research has largely already been done and conluded the following:

We had better replace oil pronto.

We can't replace oil.

We can manufacture hydrocarbons of sufficient variety to fulfill most voids left by the end of oil.

To manufacture such man made oil to replace the amount we use now is only possible with one fuel.

Nuclear.

Solar and wind and wave and geothermal all put together will not replace oil even if a worldwide monofocus was applied to the problem, at least not in a timeframe likely to prevent die-off.

Conversion through CTL or GTL exascerbate environmental issues.

There is no political will to accept nuclear power.

Thus die off is a forgone conclusion.
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