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The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Tue 21 Dec 2010, 20:25:42

Looks like WTI has touched $90/barrel. So there will be a new high price for the year. 10 days left...

Check out the graphs of WTI oil price via this link:
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

Looks like SeaGypsy will be #1 this year.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 22 Dec 2010, 18:11:47

The EIA reported a new high and closing price for WTI of $89.82 as of 21-Dec. I believe it's gone over $90 today.

SeaGypsy #1, eXpat #2, OilFinder2 #3, (no change in top 3), and lateStarter bumped me out of fourth place to fifth.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 23 Dec 2010, 19:24:42

91.38 today, the plot thickens.... still 4 days of trading left, I think....
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Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 23 Dec 2010, 22:37:51

Why is there so little concern in the MSM about oil being over $90/bbl in a crummy economy?
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 24 Dec 2010, 02:47:46

Seems widely known that the US is continuously lobbying for lower prices.
How much this lobby has actually achieved is impossible to quantify.
In the short to medium term there's no political will to do more than lobby for lower prices; the most inane response imaginable. Plus utterly futile to argue for stable prices whilst inflating the dollar.
The MSM is not known for it's willingness to ongoingly confront intractable issues.
When it takes a week's wages to fill the tank, the US may get going with a sensible energy policy, but not sooner. After all why outdo the Chinese?













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Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 30 Dec 2010, 16:34:17

We're down to the last trading day and WTI has actually backed off a dollar or two... SeaGypsy's lead is pretty strong, but further down the table there might be some changes in the standings....Here it is, using today's current price as the close....


$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
High Low Close average
91.51 68.01 89.46 79.52
High Low Close Hi Diff Low Diff Close Diff Overall
SeaGypsy 92 68 87 0.49 0.01 2.46 2.96
eXpat 100 70 90 8.49 1.99 0.54 11.02
OilFinder2 88 66 77 3.51 2.01 12.46 17.98
lateStarter 104 68 98 12.49 0.01 8.54 21.04
PeakOiler 96.5 62.4 78.25 4.99 5.61 11.21 21.81
basil_hayden 105.83 65.17 84.19 14.32 2.84 5.27 22.43
Gerben 101 65 78 9.49 3.01 11.46 23.96
Cog 110 74 90 18.49 5.99 0.54 25.02
Midessa 100 75 100 8.49 6.99 10.54 26.02
kmann 95 58 75 3.49 10.01 14.46 27.96
jdmartin 118 70 90 26.49 1.99 0.54 29.02
shortonsense 95 55 75 3.49 13.01 14.46 30.96
TheAntiDoomer 96 58 73 4.49 10.01 16.46 30.96
SteinarN 112 71 102 20.49 2.99 12.54 36.02
pup55 117.1 55.01 87.28 25.59 13 2.18 40.77
Daniel_Plainview 125.15 66.6 83.73 33.64 1.41 5.73 40.78
Nike62 95 40 80 3.49 28.01 9.46 40.96
Arsenal 134 67 89 42.49 1.01 0.46 43.96
ColossalContrarian 119 64.38 102.76 27.49 3.63 13.3 44.42
sparky 98 55 60 6.49 13.01 29.46 48.96
no_name 127 62 81 35.49 6.01 8.46 49.96
alpha480v 125 75 99 33.49 6.99 9.54 50.02
kublikhan 125 70 105 33.49 1.99 15.54 51.02
obixman 120 64 110 28.49 4.01 20.54 53.04
Comp_Lex 90 40 65 1.51 28.01 24.46 53.98
TreeFarmer 88 38 63 3.51 30.01 26.46 59.98
rangerone314 152 72 90 60.49 3.99 0.54 65.02
IslandCrow 140 70 105 48.49 1.99 15.54 66.02
TheDude 120 45 65 28.49 23.01 24.46 75.96
thylacine 150 60 100 58.49 8.01 10.54 77.04
Revi 157 62 97 65.49 6.01 7.54 79.04
2cher 136 72 123 44.49 3.99 33.54 82.02
careinke 135 65 125 43.49 3.01 35.54 82.04
AlexdeLarge 88 35 40 3.51 33.01 49.46 85.98
davep 140 60 120 48.49 8.01 30.54 87.04
misterno 100 70 8.49 1.99 89.46 99.94
pablonite 169 69 113 77.49 0.99 23.54 102.02
vtsnowedin 152.5 51.25 117 60.99 16.76 27.54 105.29
Carlhole 100 60 8.49 8.01 89.46 105.96
Repent 120 10 70 28.49 58.01 19.46 105.96
eastbay 147 72 137 55.49 3.99 47.54 107.02
Hawkcreek 168 69 119 76.49 0.99 29.54 107.02
mcgowanjm 78.51 27.25 27.25 13 40.76 62.21 115.97
wisconsin_cur 138.95 32.16 55.12 47.44 35.85 34.34 117.63
EndOfGrowth 220 70 90 128.49 1.99 0.54 131.02
Bas 168 68 148 76.49 0.01 58.54 135.04
biofuel13 168.25 62.5 162.47 76.74 5.51 73.01 155.26
Timo 193 71 101.49 2.99 89.46 193.94
Kez 198 70 198 106.49 1.99 108.54 217.02
Armageddon 219 75 201 127.49 6.99 111.54 246.02
')
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Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 31 Dec 2010, 19:37:41

The market rallied today, and the close was 91.40, up a buck and a half from yesterday....

Here are the tentative final standings. Official final results will be issued early next week when the EIA posts the last two days' trading results:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')High Low Close average
91.51 68.01 91.4 79.52
High Low Close Hi Diff Low Diff Close Diff Overall
SeaGypsy 92 68 87 0.49 0.01 4.4 4.9
eXpat 100 70 90 8.49 1.99 1.4 11.88
lateStarter 104 68 98 12.49 0.01 6.6 19.1
OilFinder2 88 66 77 3.51 2.01 14.4 19.92
PeakOiler 96.5 62.4 78.25 4.99 5.61 13.15 23.75
Midessa 100 75 100 8.49 6.99 8.6 24.08
basil_hayden 105.83 65.17 84.19 14.32 2.84 7.21 24.37
Cog 110 74 90 18.49 5.99 1.4 25.88
Gerben 101 65 78 9.49 3.01 13.4 25.9
jdmartin 118 70 90 26.49 1.99 1.4 29.88
kmann 95 58 75 3.49 10.01 16.4 29.9
shortonsense 95 55 75 3.49 13.01 16.4 32.9
TheAntiDoomer 96 58 73 4.49 10.01 18.4 32.9
SteinarN 112 71 102 20.49 2.99 10.6 34.08
ColossalContrarian 119 64.38 102.76 27.49 3.63 11.36 42.48
pup55 117.1 55.01 87.28 25.59 13 4.12 42.71
Daniel_Plainview 125.15 66.6 83.73 33.64 1.41 7.67 42.72
Nike62 95 40 80 3.49 28.01 11.4 42.9
Arsenal 134 67 89 42.49 1.01 2.4 45.9
alpha480v 125 75 99 33.49 6.99 7.6 48.08
kublikhan 125 70 105 33.49 1.99 13.6 49.08
sparky 98 55 60 6.49 13.01 31.4 50.9
obixman 120 64 110 28.49 4.01 18.6 51.1
no_name 127 62 81 35.49 6.01 10.4 51.9
Comp_Lex 90 40 65 1.51 28.01 26.4 55.92
TreeFarmer 88 38 63 3.51 30.01 28.4 61.92
IslandCrow 140 70 105 48.49 1.99 13.6 64.08
rangerone314 152 72 90 60.49 3.99 1.4 65.88
thylacine 150 60 100 58.49 8.01 8.6 75.1
Revi 157 62 97 65.49 6.01 5.6 77.1
TheDude 120 45 65 28.49 23.01 26.4 77.9
2cher 136 72 123 44.49 3.99 31.6 80.08
careinke 135 65 125 43.49 3.01 33.6 80.1
davep 140 60 120 48.49 8.01 28.6 85.1
AlexdeLarge 88 35 40 3.51 33.01 51.4 87.92
pablonite 169 69 113 77.49 0.99 21.6 100.08
misterno 100 70 8.49 1.99 91.4 101.88
vtsnowedin 152.5 51.25 117 60.99 16.76 25.6 103.35
eastbay 147 72 137 55.49 3.99 45.6 105.08
Hawkcreek 168 69 119 76.49 0.99 27.6 105.08
Carlhole 100 60 8.49 8.01 91.4 107.9
Repent 120 10 70 28.49 58.01 21.4 107.9
mcgowanjm 78.51 27.25 27.25 13 40.76 64.15 117.91
wisconsin_cur 138.95 32.16 55.12 47.44 35.85 36.28 119.57
EndOfGrowth 220 70 90 128.49 1.99 1.4 131.88
Bas 168 68 148 76.49 0.01 56.6 133.1
biofuel13 168.25 62.5 162.47 76.74 5.51 71.07 153.32
Timo 193 71 101.49 2.99 91.4 195.88
Kez 198 70 198 106.49 1.99 106.6 215.08
Armageddon 219 75 201 127.49 6.99 109.6 244.08


A well deserved helping of Love and Respect is due SeaGypsy who claimed the lead late in the year when we had that little rally....

I believe SG also wins the love and respect for the high, three players, SeaGypsy, Late Starter and the late Bas tied for the closest prediction of the low, and if I am not mistaken, there is a 5-way tie for the most accurate prediction of the close, by the five players that brilliantly predicted 90.....

Congratulations to all of the players who had the nerve/courage/sense of fun to participate.... I hope that this continues to be a fun PO.com tradition, and am looking forward to some more excitement next year....
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Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 31 Dec 2010, 19:44:37

:) Thanks Pup for doing the precision paper shuffling.
And to all those that finished ahead of me I can only say ,Wait till next year!!.
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Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 31 Dec 2010, 19:46:42

p.s. interesting sidebar: The "average prediction" from our group this year was:
high 127, low 61 and close 96, which would have finished about 20th in the competition, for anyone who is tempted to use the average to make his or her prediction....

and the main source of error was the excessively bullish "high" of 127.....

p.s.. it is PeakOiler that deserves credit for keeping us up to date with his frequent well done updates....
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Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 20:47:42

Thanks pup.

Below is my final scorecard for 2010 after the EIA posted their data Wednesday.

Image

Congrats SeaGypsy!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 23:35:27

Congrats SeaGypsy! :)
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw

You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
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Re: The 2010 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 23:53:32

Thanks folks, not too shabby for a 1st time player, of course lady luck played a central role! :)
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