[Graeme]

Has the World Already Passed “Peak Oil”?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he year 2006 may be remembered for civil strife in Iraq, the nuclear weapon testing threat by North Korea, and the genocide in Darfur, but now it appears that another world event was occurring at the same time—without headlines, but with far-reaching consequence for all nations.

That’s the year that the world’s conventional oil production likely reached its peak, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Vienna, Austria, said Tuesday.

According to the 25-year forecast in the IEA's latest annual World Energy Outlook, the most likely scenario is for crude oil production to stay on a plateau at about 68 to 69 million barrels per day.

In this scenario, crude oil production "never regains its all-time peak of 70 million barrels per day reached in 2006," said IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2010.

[Pops]

Thanks Graeme, I forgot...

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/

[Graeme]

If you are prepared to pay for it.

[Pops]

The summary says we won't have a geologic peak because we're going to increase renewables fast - like really fast - starting tomorrow - or maybe this afternoon...

Oh I forgot, we do that because we are all worried about GW...

Snort...

Fact Sheet PDFs

[Graeme]

Well, we are touchy today. But you're right, the fact sheets can be viewed for free here. Plenty of points to ponder including this one:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he eventual peak in oil will be determined by factors affecting both demand and supply. In the
New Policies Scenario, production in total does not peak before 2035, though it comes close to doing
so. By contrast, in the 450 Scenario, production does peak, at 86 mb/d, just before 2020, as a result
of weaker demand, falling briskly thereafter. Oil prices are much lower as a result. The message is
clear: if governments act more vigorously than currently planned to encourage more efficient use of
oil and the development of alternatives, then demand for oil might begin to ease soon. As a result,
we might see a fairly early peak in oil production, which would help prolong the world’s oil reserves.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'W')ell, we are touchy today.

[lper100km]

Why is the Peak always coupled to the Production Rate? This single parameter is not a reliable indicator of anything. Production can be varied according to the economic conditions of the time up to it’s geologic ceiling. What is equally relevant is the peak in reserves – the actual midpoint of consumed to date vs estimated recoverable reserves. The indications are that this peak was reached in 2006. I don’t see how it’s possible to make predictions without taking both parameters into account. Of course, estimates of reserves are anything but reliable also, but you still can’t have one without the other.

Since, if by definition we have peaked, there is now only a ‘known’ finite volume remaining for recovery and every bbl taken reduces the reserves accordingly. Presumably recovery becomes more difficult and thus slower as time goes by, so that at some point, there could be significant oil remaining even as the production tends to zero, at least relative to the numbers we are used to seeing now. It’s possible that oil could be produced for another 100 years or so, maybe more – but in such reduced flow that the general population can forget about using any for themselves.

From a PO perspective, we should hope for a no growth economy at most. That’s unlikely to happen since everyone is striving to restore bau as fast as possible. Well, that’s fine, except that after a delusional starburst of well being, we’ll be set to enter an unending period of economic decline.

What is always overlooked is that any alternative energy ‘solution’ is wholly dependent upon using our present oil infrastructure as a crutch. Without it, it can’t stand. It doesn’t really matter if techno fixes are not ready for another 90 years (see other thread oil-will-run-dry-before-substitutes-roll-out-study-t60029.html), since they could not function anyway without an oil based infrastructure.

[rdsaltpower]

Sounds like we have passed peak gas consumption in the US. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_guzzling_less_gas

[dolanbaker]

Fuel consumption in Ireland has dropped some 10% since 2006, much of that can be put down to the death of the celtic tiger.

Problem will be when they try to grow the economy again, the oil wont be there!

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rdsaltpower', 'S')ounds like we have passed peak gas consumption in the US. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_guzzling_less_gas

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'W')ell, we are touchy today. But you're right, the fact sheets can be viewed for free here. Plenty of points to ponder including this one:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he eventual peak in oil will be determined by factors affecting both demand and supply. In the
New Policies Scenario, production in total does not peak before 2035, though it comes close to doing
so. By contrast, in the 450 Scenario, production does peak, at 86 mb/d, just before 2020, as a result
of weaker demand, falling briskly thereafter. Oil prices are much lower as a result. The message is
clear: if governments act more vigorously than currently planned to encourage more efficient use of
oil and the development of alternatives, then demand for oil might begin to ease soon. As a result,
we might see a fairly early peak in oil production, which would help prolong the world’s oil reserves.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lper100km', 'W')hy is the Peak always coupled to the Production Rate? This single parameter is not a reliable indicator of anything.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')When we reach a peak in production we have then consumed the first half of the total reserves. This relationship has been verified many times

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rdsaltpower', 'S')ounds like we have passed peak gas consumption in the US. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_guzzling_less_gas

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'H')ubberts own example don't follow Hubberts decline, Ohio being the prime example of course. Dismissed as depleted by Hubbert(1956) it nearly achieved another oil peak in the 1970's, some 7 or 8 decades after its first peak.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')There are hundreds of oil producing fields, regions and nations that follow a classic Hubbert's curve. You are barking up the wrong tree.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')There are hundreds of oil producing fields, regions and nations that follow a classic Hubbert's curve. You are barking up the wrong tree.