[Asterisk]

As I see it, there are 2 crisis that are converging at the same time....global warming, and peak oil.

Global warming, as far as I can tell, is nothing but bad news. Crop failures, extreme weather, rising seas, etc. etc.

BUT....

Peak oil is another thing altogether.

Yes, peak oil will mean eventual collapse, BUT before the collapse, oil prices will go up and up and up. Anyone with even a cursory knowledge of the topic will agree with me there.

AND, it appears that we are indeed AT THE PEAK! If we aren't, then it's almost certainly a year or 2 away max.

That being the case, there must be some way to profit from our KNOWLEDGE that within the next year or 2, oil and gas prices are going to go up and up and up and up.

Part of me hates to invest in oil, because oil companies sicken me to the core. I would much rather get rich by investing in renewables....but that ain't gonna happen.

So, how can I 'bet' that oil prices are going to go through the roof in the next year? I only have about 3 or 4 thousand to invest, but knowing what I know, I would be willing to invest all of it! I would use the profits to get myself prepared (guns and long-term food are not cheap let me tell you!)

Oh God, my vegan Greenpeace father would disown me if he ever discovered that I invested in oil! haha

What do you guys think?

[Armageddon]

When this economy crashes, oil demand will plummet, so will oil prices.

[Asterisk]

Oil demand will plummet? What do you base this on?

Oil is not something that most of us CHOOSE to use. It is a necessity of life. We need it to heat our homes and drive our cars to work.

What do you base your statement on? Could you please post a link that backs up your claim? (I'm guessing not)

[SeaGypsy]

Even if every one of us liquidated everything and put it all into a tanker, it would not mean blip on the market. Sooner or later the price will be much higher than now; barring fiancial armageddon. I expect oil prices to outpace inflation by about double for the forseeable future. Meaning that 100 million dollar tanker will double in about 5 years, but 200 will only buy what 150 buys now. That's probably as good as it gets.
Trying to profit off short term fluctuations is hit/ miss at best and involves a lot of hours staring at a screen.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Asterisk', 'O')il demand will plummet? What do you base this on?

Oil is not something that most of us CHOOSE to use. It is a necessity of life. We need it to heat our homes and drive our cars to work.

[Asterisk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'E')ven if every one of us liquidated everything and put it all into a tanker, it would not mean blip on the market. Sooner or later the price will be much higher than now; barring fiancial armageddon. I expect oil prices to outpace inflation by about double for the forseeable future. Meaning that 100 million dollar tanker will double in about 5 years, but 200 will only buy what 150 buys now. That's probably as good as it gets.
Trying to profit off short term fluctuations is hit/ miss at best and involves a lot of hours staring at a screen.

[SpringCreekFarm]

I think it is far better to spend your extra cash on reducing or eliminating debt. With all the talk about the money system collapsing, it doesn't make sense in relying on anything but becoming more independent from the 'system'.

<<< no debt and fewer worries because of it.....

[diemos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Asterisk', 'O')il demand will plummet? What do you base this on?

Oil is not something that most of us CHOOSE to use. It is a necessity of life.

[SeaGypsy]

I think there is a controlled slide underway.

It has been widely discussed that sovereign default is not an option unless the USA is prepare to go without imported oil, something we all know is currently impossible. Severe Austerity is not palatable politicly and would do massive damage. Inflation is the only answer.

Asia and emerging markets will take up any slack in oil prices, as will speculators. I think there is a solid floor under about $78 a barrel which would take an extremely dire and prolonged black swan event to push down.

Topwise depends a lot on financial diplomacy. The rest of the world has now chewed over and having trouble swallowing the situation the USA is in. A major cough could result in a choke. But the vested interests in controlled slide of the dollar are inestimably enormous; there is not a non basket case economy in the world which can afford to let the US market just fall off the map.

Those are just the external pressures. Internally the control aspect in dollar descent is the difference between gradually becoming a 3rd world country or a warzone.

Oil must go up.
The dollar must go down.
Too fast will cause a trainwreck.
The fed can try to lobby for a price cap; but the suppliers will always want more than the inflation rate, significantly more.

All of this creates increasing pressure to create an alternative reserve currency; to an extent that if there was a viable alternative up and running it would have aready been replaced. This is another motivator for controlled descent.

Bankers inside goverment obfuscate the predicament. The last thing they want is an uncontrollable surge in prices and an equity flood to oil.

Bankers outside goverment seem to have been put on a leash through the backroom deals involved in the various bailouts. I find it strange that it seems this way despite allowances for continued investment in outsourcing work; but
i guess bankers are arguing that they have to be able to make a profit, something they are not likely to do within the domestic market, or much less likely than overseas.

Reminds me of a terminal cancer patient I looked after who went out and caught incurable gonnoreah trying to drain a little more enjoyment from life.

[scas]

I think the best profit can be had by insulating yourself from the effects of peak oil and climate change. You can 'profit' by not losing everything.

We may be moving into a world where money has no value, and the economy doesn't exist as were used to.

My method of 'profiting' is to have land somewhere fairly isolated, with fertile topsoil, groundwater, and not requiring electricity and gasoline to maintain a decent standard of living. A basement full of potatoes, a few barrels of water, some weapons, an electric bicycle, handy skills and good friends may not be worth much now, but in harsh times may be worth more than a giant wad of cash.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Asterisk', '
')That being the case, there must be some way to profit from our KNOWLEDGE that within the next year or 2, oil and gas prices are going to go up and up and up and up.

Part of me hates to invest in oil, because oil companies sicken me to the core. I would much rather get rich by investing in renewables....but that ain't gonna happen.

So, how can I 'bet' that oil prices are going to go through the roof in the next year?

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Asterisk', 'O')il demand will plummet? What do you base this on?

Oil is not something that most of us CHOOSE to use. It is a necessity of life. We need it to heat our homes and drive our cars to work. What do you base your statement on? Could you please post a link that backs up your claim? (I'm guessing not)

[Asterisk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') dare say few, if any, people who post on this site actually "work" for a living, as in expend energy, manage the expenditure of energy, create energy etc. I.E. What used to be called "work."

Therefore, when shortages occur and the price of petroleum increases then all the superfluous tasks we have come to call "work" will disappear. Perhaps rapidly. Then there will be lots of folks milling around with little to do. How does one get RICH in this circumstance?

--I would imagine hoarding old sneakers or bras in a well-fortified abandoned brick or stone building might be a first step.
--All those old bras and sneakers would need a cleaning before sales. One might put together an industrial cleaning service. As few people will own or have the money to operate their own washing machines. Find an abandoned prison and strip the prison laundry room of its machinery.
--Then of course those old sneakers and bras will need constant repair and updates. There's a job. America's first modern sweat shop Think they won't be coming back from China????? Think again!
--Finally when the old sneakers and bras wear out completely they can be recycled into a felt-like material. They are shredded and pressed together under heat to make a mat. The Three R's in Action. Reuse, Recycle, and Reality! Think of the opportunities. Patagonia Sneaker/Bra Climbing/Snowboarding Apparel. Sneaker/Bra Skins for dead Iphones

[Asterisk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')Wrong on both counts. You can walk to work and you soon will. That may mean moving closer to your work or changing jobs but one way or the other you will stop driving a car to and from work. You do not need to heat your home, at least not all 2000 square feet of it.

[Asterisk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')To try to help, I will discuss oil related INVESTMENT ideas here a bit. I am talking about a, say, (at least) 5 to 15 year strategy which can withstand crashes in the global economy and oil prices, as well as strong run-ups like we had in summer of 2008. I'd like to see more discussions like this on this site -- having money helps our ability to prep - regardless of our forecast for society.

[davep]

I've already got some calls on crude for 2013, and intend to get some more for 2015, 2017 etc. Some can be really silly (e.g. 500 dollars) but they're very cheap. Others are more expensive (e.g. 150/200 dollars) but also worth a punt.

If you have spare cash and no debts, this longer-term leveraged approach is bound to make serious money at some point, unless the Government suddenly outlaws private individuals from speculating on the oil futures options markets. I can see it now "It's the fault of these speculators, let's do something about it..."

[Ibon]

Complimenting davep's post and also Outcast-searcher here is a podcast for you to all listen through. it will review the following ways to invest if you have a conviction, that inspite of demand destruction and cycles, the price of oil will rise:

Oil equity stocks
OIl ETF's
Oil Futures
Oil Futures with options

It is really worth listening to this. It also mirrors what I am doing with a significant part of my net worth.

http://www.financialsense.com/financial ... he-century

[mattduke]

Putting it all into physical silver bullion in your possession would be a reasonable choice that will serve you well during the period before the oil crisis and after. If you want to play the pre-oil crunch dollar crash you can get into the miners with ETF's like GDXJ and SIL. You can short treasuries with TBT. One can imagine a scenario where as EROEI drops off that oil companies will fail even as the oil price skyrockets. In that situation a direct oil-price tracking ETF like USO would make sense. But when things get that bad, relying upon the wall street financial system starts to seem risky. Which brings us back to physical bullion in your home.

[Ibon]

You have to hedge all this advice against the improbable but not impossible scenario that governments and central banks around the globe see the potential for such destabilizing gyrations due to currency and energy markets that out of their own self interest they actually do sit down together and take such draconian action as oil price fixing and rationing, currency stabilization, etc.

Or a Tea Part type majority that wins elections, overpowers the FED, stops quantitative easing and plunges the economy into a deflation where commodities tank and the recession runs so deep that demand destruction kills again oil price.

Or that against all logic and odds we go for one last illusionary bubble where confidence returns and the dream goes on. commodities could tank but energy soar.

always allow opposite scripts to play out as devils advocate from the one you believe in and invest in puts and hedges accordingly.

The nature of volatile times dictates you don't put all your eggs in one investment strategy.