[Graeme]

Dear Graeme




Thank you for your email dated 24 March 2004 regarding peak oil and
alternative transport fuels.


Putting a date on when oil production will peak is a real headache. It
requires data we don't have and assumptions we can't test. Indeed, about
the only thing that commentators on this issue agree on is that world oil
production will peak and decline some time this century. However I would
like to note that your sources of information represent some of the most
pessimistic views of world oil supplies. The International Energy Agency
(IEA) is considered to be one of the leading authorities on world energy
projections and energy supply issues. In their 2004 World Energy Outlook,
the IEA predicts that global production of conventional oil will not peak
before 2030 if the necessary investments are made.


My officials carefully consider a wide range of evidence and information
but it should be recognised that mainstream opinion is that oil is not
likely to peak this decade. Keep in mind that after the 1970's oil shocks,
predictions were for oil to run out by the year 2000.


It is also important when considering the oil market situation, to account
for the short term and long term nature of the causes of oil-price rises.
The increase in oil prices since 2003 has been attributed to various
factors including international political unrest, hurricane damage to
refining capacity, demand growth in Asia, and a lack of investment in new
capacity. Higher oil prices do not necessarily imply that global oil
supplies are running out.


In your letter you call on the Government to establish targets for clean,
renewable energy and to establish measures and policies to encourage the
efficient use of energy. Promotion and development of renewable energy
sources and uptake of energy efficiency measures are priorities for the
government. The National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy
(NEECS) sets out two targets, one for energy efficiency and the other for
the uptake of renewables. The target for renewable energy includes a
sub-target for the uptake of renewable transport fuels. The Energy
Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) has responsibility for
implementing the government's objectives relating to energy efficiency and
renewables. Transport sustainability, including the promotion of renewable
transport fuels, is a key element of EECA's work programme. If you would
like further information on EECA's initiatives and programmes see
http://www.eeca.govt.nz.


As part of its climate change policy package, the government has developed
the Projects to Reduce Emissions mechanism, which is intended to promote
growth in the renewable energy sector and encourage business practices that
are less greenhouse gas intensive. The initiative provides incentives for
firms to undertake emissions reductions prior to and during the first Kyoto
commitment period (2008-2012). The Government has also decided to introduce
a carbon tax (on fossil fuels and industrial process emissions, ie. carbon
dioxide and fossil methane) from 2007 to create an incentive to reduce
emissions. Further information on the projects mechanism and carbon charge
can be found at http://www.climatechange.govt.nz.


The New Zealand Transport Strategy sets out a direction for New Zealand's
transport system. Sustainability is an underlying principle of the
strategy. You may be particularly interested in chapter 6, which outlines
our objectives for environmental sustainability including reducing fuel
consumption and increasing the use of low energy transport options. For
more information, or to view the strategy, go to http://www.beehive.govt.nz/nzts/.


The Government's recently released sustainable energy framework, a
cross-government project led by the Ministry of Economic Development, is
the best forum to look at overall government energy planning. A copy of
the framework can be found at:


http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/environment/ ... ble-energy.


You asked specifically about the Government's programme for alternative
transport fuels. Encouraging the use of transport biofuels contributes to a
number of sustainable development and climate change policy objectives. For
example, the NEECS, described above, includes a target for renewable
transport fuels of 2 Petajoules a year by 2012. The sustainable energy
discussion document recognises the importance of transport biofuels in
promoting reliable and affordable energy and taking better care of the
environment. In the context of these objectives, the primary transport
biofuels currently being considered in Government policy are biodiesel and
bioethanol. The Government is also examining further options to support the
uptake of transport biofuels such as mandatory biofuels targets, developing
appropriate quality standards and subsidies and other forms of financial
incentives.


Yours sincerely


Trevor Mallard
Minister of Energy

[enakllitrah]

I received a similar reply. He is likely to conform, keep up appearances, and not stick his neck out on this issue. Just campaign against voting for Trevor and his capitalist, kow tow to China, Labour party.
It's a pity NZ couldn't be one of the first nations to formally acknowledge the energy decline issue. After all we need all the time and preparation possible. NZ is far from the clean green paradise promoted in tourist brochure propaganda and 'Lord of the rings' tours. New Zealand is modelling itself as a 'little usa'. We have more SUV's per capita than anywhere, running on diesel of far lower quality. The air pollution in many centres is extreme, with airborne particulate lead levels at one Christchurch intersection measured at three times the average for central Hong Kong. The small portion of the country which is not mountainous has been degraded by many decades of top soil erosion, past DDT and 2,4,5 T pesticide use, over use of nitrate fertilisers on thin soils. The transformation of huge swaths of prime cropping land to irrigated high intensity, maximum profit dairy farming has had an adverse effect on water quality of waterways as well as depleting aquifer resources. In essence we have very petro-reliant industrial agriculture supporting an oil junkie nation. In the event of further escalating oil prices NZ will suffer before many if not most other countries.
Trevor's Labour party is in a 'think big' phase, building massive freeway projects which will be completed early next decade to cope with the nearing exponential traffic growth expected by that time. On the electricity front, the national grid is grossly undercapitalised, an article in the current 'Metro' magazine claiming Auckland can expect blackouts in three years time. Generation is also lacking, with further hydro development becoming increasingly difficult to pass the resource management act, so this government turns to recommissioning old inefficient thermal plants burning imported coal, rather than 'non cost effective' high grade south island coal. Coal powered thermal generation being necessary because NZ's Maui gas field is in 'cliff' mode and our historic anti nuclear stance has embedded a distrust in that option… not that we could even afford the single 1200MW nuclear plant required maybe on the outskirts of Pukekoe.

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('enakllitrah', 'T')he small portion of the country which is not mountainous has been degraded by many decades of top soil erosion, past DDT and 2,4,5 T pesticide use, over use of nitrate fertilisers on thin soils. The transformation of huge swaths of prime cropping land to irrigated high intensity, maximum profit dairy farming has had an adverse effect on water quality of waterways as well as depleting aquifer resources.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'W')hat do you think about the west coast of Northland? There is a tract with 86 hectares of native bush near Helena Bay including a waterfall and natural pool. It is rugged terrain, but possibly suitable for fruit and nut trees scattered about and free range chickens and goats. Possibly could be used for fresh water aquaculture (talipia). Maybe wet enough for escargo. There are also some other similar properties near Kerikeri with waterfalls and horticultural potential.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

the Labour Party are a bunch of cynical liars.

the last time i voted for them was 1987. they lied through their teeth. i won't vote for them again. ever.

Anderton's just as bad. campaigned for a Tobin Tax years ago, but as soon as he got into Cabinet, never hear a word about it.

it appears only the Greens and Maori Party are willing to tell the truth to the NZ public. the rest all have a vested interest in keeping people in the dark.

of course they all know PO will hit within 10 years MAX, but you still get this 2030 crap which even the US EIA has now quietly acknowledged is rubbish.

[enakllitrah]

Northland is where I would like to live, especially when I think of the future of my heat pump as an expensive dusty wall ornament. However, the good folk of the sprawling metropolis of Auckland are likely to head North from the isthmus, rather than South to 'Mordor'.
A reasonable proportion of “The City of Sails” population could be quite mobile with the harbours full of yachts.

I like the idea of small scale aquaculture; it’s a problem that the West side of NZ is too wet, with some areas receiving an average 300 inches (7.5m) per year, yet in the East there are areas approaching desertification especially with extended el nino phases.

The lion’s share of NZ crude is shipped from Dubai. I wonder how reliable that relationship is.

On the politics side, where should people best direct their party and candidate votes to effect changes?

[fastbike]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('enakllitrah', '
')On the politics side, where should people best direct their party and candidate votes to effect changes?

[skiwi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('enakllitrah', 'I') like the idea of small scale aquiculture; it’s a problem that the West side of NZ is too wet, with some areas receiving an average 300 inches (7.5m) per year