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Postby ArimoDave » Sun 15 May 2005, 15:57:54

Bigg said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')’m not concerned with the world right now; I’m concerned with the place I call home. I sucks right now to live in many countries and they are not me, nor my concern.


YIKES! 8O :shock: 8O :shock:
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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 16:07:55

Can you add anything intelligent or is taking things out-of-context trolling the best you have? I think you missed the rest of my quote there ArimoDave besides adding nothing eariler.
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Postby Jack » Sun 15 May 2005, 16:59:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', 'C')an you add anything intelligent or is taking things out-of-context trolling the best you have? I think you missed the rest of my quote there ArimoDave besides adding nothing eariler.


On the contrary, he has highlighted a revealing remark.
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Postby Jack » Sun 15 May 2005, 17:13:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', 'I') was going to bring this up next but since you linked it already, did you notice where your linked chart also mentioned “Wheat”? I think you forgot to look into grain sorghum with some even fuzzier math here Jack! Can you figure an equation showing how we can make things work instead this time cus those "stinking numbers" you don’t need for projecting doom are coming back to haunt you….


If you are capable of doing the arithmetic - I will not dignify such calculations by calling them mathematics - then, by all means, do so. Tell us how much of present U.S. grain production is to be converted to ethanol. Then tell us what the impact will be on grain availability for human consumption and for the livestock industry. Detail for us the impact on exports and the trade deficit. Since you are making the claim, it is incumbent on you to do the work.

As matters stand, your claims are the equivalent of the classic post that proposed to send ships to Jupiter to obtain methane.

Numbers? We don't need no stinkin' numbers!
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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 17:42:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', 'C')an you add anything intelligent or is taking things out-of-context trolling the best you have? I think you missed the rest of my quote there ArimoDave besides adding nothing eariler.
On the contrary, he has highlighted a revealing remark.

Perhaps it would help if you looked at things in context instead of relying on a trolls poor imagination.

BiGG quote in context: “I’m not concerned with the world right now; I’m concerned with the place I call home. It sucks right now to live in many countries and they are not me, nor my concern. I already have lots more answers for the world also btw as Peak Oil to me is discussing answers and they are everywhere if you look.”

I think you can also see where I said something about answers for the rest of the world also but that was left out to support a trolls agenda. The person highlighted by their remark here is the troll misquoting others.
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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 18:07:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')
If you are capable of doing the arithmetic - I will not dignify such calculations by calling them mathematics - then, by all means, do so. Tell us how much of present U.S. grain production is to be converted to ethanol. Then tell us what the impact will be on grain availability for human consumption and for the livestock industry. Detail for us the impact on exports and the trade deficit. Since you are making the claim, it is incumbent on you to do the work.

As matters stand, your claims are the equivalent of the classic post that proposed to send ships to Jupiter to obtain methane.

Numbers? We don't need no stinkin' numbers!


YES! You sure don’t need any “stinking numbers” involving reality when producing all of your little fuzzy math numbers apparently!

The “trade deficit”? You have got to be kidding me here (again)! How much do we send overseas to buy others antiquated oil? How many hundred billion is that costing US every year again? Did you see where I said 80% of the money generated by these ethanol plants is spent within 50 miles of the plant? I’m kinda thinking homegrown oil/gas helps with the trade deficit thingy there Jack but it looks like that fuzzy math habit is getting in your way of seeing reality here. Are you typing from the Saudi Embassy or something?

I think you missed some other important facts also btw:

“Ethanol production consumes the grain’s starch, the protein, minerals, fat and fiber are concentrated during the production process to produce a highly valued and nutritious livestock feed. The majority of feed is then dried and sold as Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS). However, approximately 20-25% of the feed is shipped wet locally, reducing energy input costs and providing another market for producers.

Historically, over 85% of DDGS has been fed to dairy and beef cattle as a high-quality, economical feed ingredient. With continuing research, DDGS use in swine and poultry diets is expanding also.”

You do know the rest of this can be returned to the soil also?
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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 20:03:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ArimoDave', 'M')ethinks it's a-clear
That ethanol is
Not the choice to use.

One burns more gas
To produce the corn
Than is replaced
In the tank of fuel.

BiGG it seems to not
Understand the lot
Ethanol has placed
In our overall
U.S. Consumption.

ArimoDave


I sure would like to know where you are getting your alleged “facts” because they are not even close to realty. Every Btu of petroleum used in the production of ethanol produces 13.2 Btus



American Society of Agricultural Engineers

We show that corn ethanol is energy efficient, as indicated by an energy output/input ratio of 1.34 and 1.53 under a best–case scenario.

United States Department of Agriculture

The energy ratio is 1.57 and 1.77 for wet- and dry-milling, respectively, and the weighted average energy ratio is 1.67.
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Postby Jack » Sun 15 May 2005, 20:38:41

More hand waving arguments. You really don't understand, do you? How sad.
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Postby ArimoDave » Sun 15 May 2005, 20:44:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', 'C')an you add anything intelligent or is taking things out-of-context trolling the best you have? I think you missed the rest of my quote there ArimoDave besides adding nothing eariler.


On the contrary, he has highlighted a revealing remark.


To expound upon it further would bring about a whole new topic. I do not wish to be that much of a troll, however.

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Postby TWilliam » Sun 15 May 2005, 21:04:44

All of this is quite interesting, but the one salient point that I note has yet to be mentioned is simply this (as MonteQuest is so fond of reminding us) : "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch." Full-scale "farming-for-fuel" is not sustainable. Just as with oil, eventually demand will outpace supply, the energy cost will outweigh the energy return, and we'll be back to (an even smaller) square one. That is, of course, assuming that we pursue energy farming with the intent of otherwise maintaining Business As Usual...
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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 21:16:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'M')ore hand waving arguments. You really don't understand, do you? How sad.


Gee, and here I thought you guys would appreciate me showing you real facts debunking all the urban myths floating around here!
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Postby ArimoDave » Sun 15 May 2005, 21:25:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'M')ore hand waving arguments. You really don't understand, do you? How sad.
Gee, and here I thought you guys would appreciate me showing you real facts debunking all the urban myths floating around here!

The ASAE site only gives an absract -- unless you are a member. No way to verify their numbers. The other one won't open in my version of Word-Pad, nor in my word processor. Can't verify that one either. The result: No verifiable numbers -- just assertions.

edit Grammar and punctuation.
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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 22:05:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'A')ll of this is quite interesting, but the one salient point that I note has yet to be mentioned is simply this (as MonteQuest is so fond of reminding us) : "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch." Full-scale "farming-for-fuel" is not sustainable. Just as with oil, eventually demand will outpace supply, the energy cost will outweigh the energy return, and we'll be back to (an even smaller) square one. That is, of course, assuming that we pursue energy farming with the intent of otherwise maintaining Business As Usual...


I think the most important thing to remember here is many sat around for years telling others about how planes could never fly, horseless carriages could never replace the horse, computers were only fancy word processors, the world was flat, and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and …

I personally know many “smart” people that cannot envision a different color paint on the wall until they see it, but they can spin a great tale …… I personally know many “smart” people that don’t have an ounce of common sense ….. I personally know one scientist that is one of the leading experts in his field on the planet, but needs instruction how to turn a screwdriver every time he uses one …. I personally know many “smart” people with predisposed negative attitudes that could not see a positive if it smacked them in the head …… I personally know many “smart” people that can smoke a calculator but can’t add things up sitting right in front of their face ….. I personally know many “smart” people that will defend the intellectual dishonesty of their heroes with the zeal of a doomer standing on the street corner wearing a signboard claiming “The End of the World Is Near”, just because their heroes support their agenda, even though you produce clear facts showing they are anything but intellectually honest.

I personally know intellectual honesty is key when picking your heroes or spokespersons, and those claiming answers for anything aren’t necessarily either just because they spin a grand tale.
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Postby Tyler_JC » Sun 15 May 2005, 22:56:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think the most important thing to remember here is many sat around for years telling others about how planes could never fly, horseless carriages could never replace the horse, computers were only fancy word processors, the world was flat, and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and …


The Car, the Air Plane, and the Computer were all built out of cheap energy. Without oil, we never would have invented the computer. It just wouldn't have made sense to invest so much energy into something that adds nothing but complexity to the world.

Energy is the abililty to do work. We would not be able to do as much work if energy became more expensive. We would invest more of our energy into "producing" energy rather than investing that energy into bikes/computers/food. Technology uses energy to do work. Tecnology does not produce energy.

EROEI does matter. If you run an economy on ethanol, the standard of living will decline. More of the energy will be used "producing" energy than if the economy was run on oil. There's a reason Rome never went to the moon. They didn't have the energy to do it. "But I thought they didn't have the technology?" That's true too. But remember, energy IS technology. A computer uses far more energy than just the electricity required to run it. You need an entire civilization to build one. Rome didn't have enough energy for its civilization to invent spaceships to go to the moon.

I pity you. I honestly do. You just can't seem to get "it".

However, I do agree. Screw the rest of the world. I'm not interested in the solution for Agrentina. Unfortunately, there is no solution for us other than war-for-oil or PowerDown. I'm hoping for PowerDown. I don't want to die so that self-loathing @$$holes can sit around watching TV and eating Big Macs.
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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 22:58:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ArimoDave', 'T')he ASAE site only gives an absract -- unless you are a member. No way to verify their numbers.The other one won't open in my version of Word-Pad, nor in my word processor. Can't verify that one either.The result: No verifiable numbers -- just assertions.

What? You need to sit back and think about this a minute as just because you are having problems with a link does not mean these are “assertions”! These are what are known as facts.

USDA Search Result Page You can try this link where you will find many choices to read about regarding this and if you have problems look into getting your computer fixed.
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Postby TWilliam » Mon 16 May 2005, 00:10:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'A')ll of this is quite interesting, but the one salient point that I note has yet to be mentioned is simply this (as MonteQuest is so fond of reminding us) : "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch." Full-scale "farming-for-fuel" is not sustainable. Just as with oil, eventually demand will outpace supply, the energy cost will outweigh the energy return, and we'll be back to (an even smaller) square one. That is, of course, assuming that we pursue energy farming with the intent of otherwise maintaining Business As Usual...


I think the most important thing to remember here is many sat around for years telling others about how planes could never fly, horseless carriages could never replace the horse, computers were only fancy word processors, the world was flat, and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and …

I personally know many “smart” people that cannot envision a different color paint on the wall until they see it, but they can spin a great tale …… I personally know many “smart” people that don’t have an ounce of common sense ….. I personally know one scientist that is one of the leading experts in his field on the planet, but needs instruction how to turn a screwdriver every time he uses one …. I personally know many “smart” people with predisposed negative attitudes that could not see a positive if it smacked them in the head …… I personally know many “smart” people that can smoke a calculator but can’t add things up sitting right in front of their face ….. I personally know many “smart” people that will defend the intellectual dishonesty of their heroes with the zeal of a doomer standing on the street corner wearing a signboard claiming “The End of the World Is Near”, just because their heroes support their agenda, even though you produce clear facts showing they are anything but intellectually honest.

I personally know intellectual honesty is key when picking your heroes or spokespersons, and those claiming answers for anything aren’t necessarily either just because they spin a grand tale.


I fail to see how any of this is relevant to the issue of biofuel (or any other alternative) replacement of oil. As far as "intellectual honesty" is concerned, I don't need a slew of mathematical "proof" for me to comprehend that

a) oil represents stored sunlight --a solar "battery", if you will-- embodying some millions of years worth of solar radiation bombarding the earth,

b) our access to this "battery" has enabled us to build a civilization that utilizes the equivalent of (I'm guessing here) some thousands of years of solar input per day,

c) nothing else available to us is as energy-dense as oil,

d) regardless of what "numbers" might seem to indicate, one year's worth of stored sunlight in the form of biomass, even if the entire landmass were stripped bare, can not possibly produce the energy equivalent of thousands of years' worth of energy use per day (nor do I believe that all "alternatives" combined could do so, logistical concerns aside),

e) limitless economic growth (the god of economists, and a euphemism for "population increase" ) is simply not tenable. It's referred to as cancer in the medical profession, and it must either remit or kill it's host,

f) this civilization is no more immune to collapse than any of the previous civilizations that have been built on a foundation of a non-renewable resource and subsequently collapsed. The only difference I see here is that we've reached greater heights (i.e. have developed the ability to support greater numbers), therefore the fall will be that much further and the impact that much more painful.

Do some reading about the fall of the Roman Empire and it's aftermath sometime; you will get a preview of what's to come. I suspect that there were also some foresighted individuals then who were blithely dismissed as "gloom & doomers"...
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Postby MonteQuest » Mon 16 May 2005, 00:44:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', ' ')
Where MonteQuest thinks numbers don’t matter is beyond me, if he wants to run around making claims like that it’s his business, and you using the fuzzy math figures quoted above is just as absurd. It would be nice if some here would start looking at things logically for a change.


Now, I think it is time the bullshit stops, BIGG. You are the one who claims hard data numbers are worthless, not me. The "we don't need no stinkin numbers" is a slap at your posted pie-in-the sky nonsense that makes spurious claims without any hard science data to back them up.

I don't think you can grasp sarcasm, either. :lol:
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Postby Specop_007 » Mon 16 May 2005, 03:02:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', 'S')pecop,
This is not sarcasm, Dick Cheney actually did state that. Call me and let's discuss matters since you just don't seem to get it!!!

Image


Your level of idiocy if appalling......
It ranks right up there with Re's denial of scientific facts and Rapheal's false religious contexts.
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Postby BiGG » Mon 16 May 2005, 09:34:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Now, I think it is time the bullshit stops, BIGG. You are the one who claims hard data numbers are worthless, not me. The "we don't need no stinkin numbers" is a slap at your posted pie-in-the sky nonsense that makes spurious claims without any hard science data to back them up.

I don't think you can grasp sarcasm, either. :lol:



I am fully aware of your cheap attempt at sarcasm, I was returning the favor by mocking your quote and you can believe me on this one, the bullshit didn’t just stop for me starting here. The bullshit stopped for me when reading your pie-in-the sky nonsense as your numbers only tell part of the story and some of us can fill in the many blanks you missed.

I think I can sum it up easily like this ……. Some people freak out when they run out of shampoo and just give up on washing their hair period, while other people know you can use laundry detergent, dish soap, bar soap, body wash, animal fat, and a host of others to get your hair clean in a pinch.

Your equations regarding “hard numbers & data” are much like the aforementioned scenario and I think you lack the ability to put together equations outside of the realm of your limited understanding. It’s real easy to get consumed by, & focus on what was, and many have great difficulty understanding what can be where many parts outside of their understanding are involved.

All the while you and a few others are painting pictures of doom regarding oil being at the half way point, there are millions & millions of others painting a very different picture and I suggest you start looking into what they are saying for a change because we were moving away from oil whether it is in decline or not. We have plenty for the transition according to the vast majority of knowledgeable professionals around the planet contrary to what you and some others can envision.
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Postby Agren » Mon 16 May 2005, 09:46:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')our equations regarding “hard numbers & data” are much like the aforementioned scenario and I think you lack the ability to put together equations outside of the realm of your limited understanding.

You sound like a proponent of the "new economy" in 1999. Screw all the old, screw calculations, screw everything but faith.

You don't have a scientific background, if I guess correctly? Of course numbers are needed, of course hard data is needed. If anything is to replace oil it's going to be needed on a massive scale. If you (not necessarily you personally, but someone that you can link to) can't show calculations showing how that is going to happen, how much of oil usage that can be switched to ethanol or whatever why should anyone belive you, it's all down to faith at that point.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ecause we were moving away from oil whether it is in decline or not

You are aware that we are using more oil than ever before, right? "Hardly moving away from".
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