[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')The excerpt on Lower 48 is complete hooey.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '[')img]http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/510/Laherrere_CreamingCurve.png[/img]

[Ache]

here is a link to a pdf copy of the book for downloading

http://www.mediafire.com/?v0m66jj7fyr7e95

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Today, the oil industry is a high - tech business, with technological advances
being adopted in areas ranging from discovery to recovery. Computer - aided
visualization, 3D viewing, and new geophysical methods have accompanied
major progress in the use of horizontal wells and precision directional drilling.
Rather than leaving behind most of the oil after pumping, modern production
can remove the majority of oil initially in place. Dismissing the consistent
role played by technological advances and thereby unavoidably forecasting
global depletion is to ignore historical data and processes that should be a
part of a valid scientifi c analysis. The world has depended on technological
advances in many industries, and to think that they will stop is nonsensical.
Forecasts of global oil depletion should not depend on global endowment
estimates that have not held up. Predictions should not rely so heavily on the
convenient and simplistic projections of historical discovery and production
data.

Increased transportation fuel effi ciency is essential to reducing future oil
demand. In the 1970s, annual global oil production was about 5.1 barrels per
person. When the CAFE standards of 27.5 mpg improved new fuel economy
by 14 mpg, annual global per capita production dropped to 4.1 barrels per
person, and that fi gure has remained fi xed for the past 25 years. Global oil
use has grown at the same rate as the increase in population. If fuel effi ciency
were increased to 43 mpg, oil production might fall to 3 barrels per person
per year. At that per capita rate, peak global oil production would occur
during the anticipated period of maximum global population of 9.22 billion
in 2075. Under that scenario, annual global oil production requirements
would be 27.7 billion barrels, which is essentially the global production value
seen in the past few years. Should the world of the future choose to use oil
as we do today to power transportation, our current rate of production would
be suffi cient as long as vehicle fuel economy were improved by about 60
percent. This prospect seems likely. Fuel economy improved by more than
60 percent in response to the original 1975 CAFE standards, and many small
cars and hybrids already get 43 to 50 mpg (5.5 to 4.7 liters per 100 km). The
2007 revised CAFE standard of 35 mpg by 2020 added 7.5 mpg, but at least
another 7.5 mpg gain is needed. The rest of the world is ahead of the US
on vehicle fuel economy, and the US must catch up and begin to take the
lead. The Obama administration is aiming to shorten the time - line for fuel -
economy compliance to 2016 and make the standard 35.5 mpg, roughly in
line with the California requirement. 78 This is a move in the right direction,
but it is not enough to facilitate a concerted effort to replace light - fl eet
vehicles with plug - in hybrids and electric cars.

After a viable technology that improves effi ciency is introduced, its adoption
spreads. Typically, there is no widespread reversion to an older ineffi -
cient approach. The global transfer of new technology affects oil recovery
and consumption. A rapid increase in oil prices can have a positive effect on
technology and the direction of our oil - consumption path. High prices promote
effi ciency and the introduction of substitutes. As a consequence of innovation,
the ultimate result of an increase in price is a sustainable lower price. However,
that progression will likely involve coping with oil - supply disruptions and
oil - price volatility. Alternatively, a new model would be to actively promote
oil - price stability and allow for the orderly transition to the most sensible
transportation - fuel alternatives.

If there is a peak and decline in global oil production during the next two
decades, it is more likely that it will refl ect a decrease in global oil demand,
rather than production choked by critically low global availability. The
state of global oil resources (listed above) suggests that improvements in
technology and effi ciency will allow for continued use of conventional oil
resources. The line between conventional and unconventional sources of oil
will blur as more unconventional sources come on line. However, issues other
than availability have become increasingly important to our future use of oil.
Driven by security, stability, and environmental concerns, major consuming
nations may shift away from conventional oil as a transportation fuel. Based
on the history of production of other non - renewable Earth resources, a move
away from today ’ s conventional oil will take place long before the end of the
global endowment is in sight.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ache', 'h')ere is a link to a pdf copy of the book for downloading

http://www.mediafire.com/?v0m66jj7fyr7e95

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '[')img]http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/510/Laherrere_CreamingCurve.png[/img]

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')Its good to see that a decent scientific work can see through these types of charades.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou just linked to a apologia for USGS WPA 2000? We recently laid waste to that piece.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')our recent post is a waste of time, an off-topic distraction as you fail to respond to criticism of the book excerpt. This is pretty much over.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The resulting graph gives one or more hyperbolas which can be used to estimate the total amount of original oil.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Can you stick to a topic or is everything a diversion? I used the creaming curve in this discussion to refute the author contention that lack of US reserve additions were a consequence of cheaper foreign oil. No it was not. It was a consequence of declining physical reserves in spite of increasing drilling.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')bah blalh balh peer reviewed

Are you peer reviewed? Can anyone verify that you are really for real?