[Pops]

This was discussed at TOD earlier this year, I just got around to reading the full paper:
Tipping Points: Near-Term Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production

This is the Overnight Armageddon Scenario updated with lessons from the Great Recession.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he credit crisis exemplifies society's difficulties in the timely management of risks outside our experience or immediate concerns, even when such risks are well signposted. We have passed or are close to passing the peak of global oil production. Our civilisation is structurally unstable to an energy withdrawal. There is a high probability that our integrated and globalised civilisation is on the cusp of a fast and near-term collapse.

[Cog]

I've spent the afternoon reading the paper and I do have some disagreements with his conclusions. I'm going to re-read it later to make sure I understood fully where he is going with this.

He makes the case that a planned power-down is somewhat impossible. I would not go that far. I would say it probably won't happen and its extremely difficult. What I have seen so far from our political class, the banking system, and corporations is a desperation to keep business as usual going. The bank bailouts in 2008, the midnight meeting with the Congressional leadership, is evidence that instead of letting debt default, and changing our current system, the political class and banking system will do everything it can do to avert that.

There is a great deal of momentum in the global system. His remarks that peak oil/energy can result in a systemic crash is one that I don't buy just yet. There remains a great deal of waste in our use of energy. The political class can pass just about any law you want to envision to cut energy use below oil depletion levels. Yes, this results in unemployment as he correctly pointed out. But you can keep things running for a while with draconian energy conservation laws. People will still go to work if they have a job that is paying to keep them in their house. Even if we go to 30% unemployment/underemployment instead of the currently accepted 17% level, things would not change much for most people who are working.

Instead, what I have envisioned is a stair-step down in quality of life(BAU) with intermittent and more frequent major recessions that are handled with the usual crisis management that leads to short term solutions. Consider recessions every 5 years or every 3 years as common. The end result is grim since nothing is ever really solved and you do end up in a collapse of the current system but I'm thinking a little further down the road then he alludes to.

I will have more to say on this after a re-read of his conclusions but this is my thinking right now.

[Pops]

Here is an article referenced in the paper (#52), just barely within my grasp,
Early-warning signals for critical transitions (pdf)

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I will have more to say on this after a re-read of his conclusions but this is my thinking right now.

[diemos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I')t might be that it takes a hundred years before you could look back with any certainty and say, yes, things are definitely worse now than they used to be.

[ian807]

I too think there will be a stair step collapse with recession happening every 3 to 5 years due to oil price feedback and derivative-induced monetary collapse until we finally slide into a semi-permanent depression. The bottom line is that the USA and every other country essentially becomes a third world country. If we're collectively smart, the wealthy will be forcibly eliminated to prevent future occurrences of the same type. We're probably not that smart.

Regardless, we have a lot of slack, and a long way to fall. Furthermore, the effect of centuries of industrialization is that there is quite a bit of refined metal and materials floating around. There will be electricity, even if it's in very small amounts made from a a few hundred antique truck alternators being turned by paddle wheels on a river. There are buildings and building materials aplenty. Rocks still exist. Trees will still grow (assuming we don't cut them all down - a real possibility). Steam engines will one again become a popular item. The folks who survive the initial 50 year powerdown/decline won't be living high on the hog (Think rural Mexico), but they'll be living.

[diemos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', 'T')here will be electricity, even if it's in very small amounts made from a a few hundred antique truck alternators being turned by paddle wheels on a river.

[Whitefang]

That tipping points paper might make us feel elevated with them equations, bifurcations.....blablabla....
It is a simple fact anyone with 3 braincells can grasp that we are at the end of the line here.
We are way to late to avert disaster.

Let us summerize:

Climate is over the top, polar icecap broken up last september, methane venting which is an extinction level event by itself. Result is mass extinction, human life by crop failure. Moderate climate down the drain. Warm and cold spells.

Ocean life at risk from acidification, loss of plankton, base from the food chain. Many species already at risk or over the hill, cliff actually. Aridification, widespread loss of ecosystems.

Peakoil and about everything else has happened, no more growth, paper money or stock not backed up, western global empire bankrupt.
Global war on terror, worldly elites using home made fantasy of OBL beating Pentagon with knife and cellphone from cave , arming themselves against locals to hold palace and Benz. Using fear to make people give up car and mass consumption, their priviliges and freedom. The end game starting with global fin.crisis, riots and Gulags, FEMA camps for the whole family, with playgrounds for the little happy campers!
Also plastic coffins for the dead where the chipped bodies can be transported to the local mass grave, RIP.
Our management east and west, have been extremely busy making preps for peakoil and the life after, only 911 involves a great deal of planning for the future, London bombings, Madrid etc etc.....the whole economy ponzy scheme, wars in Africa, Middle East, Far East....idiocy that takes tonnes of energy and did accelerate that human die off-tipping point by years.


Thing is how much time before it hits? months, years?
Indeed a large system, so hopefully more than a few months, cannot see it peacefull for another 5 years.....best guess 2 or 3 years, then finally the civil war out in the open.
After disregarding the obvious we get anger, frustration and fear, the mess will be enormous, no planned cut down in steps, no order beyond the green zones. The boys oversea will take the fight home, shoot terrorists in the US instead faraway places, maybe the smart ones will turn thier guns on our masters.
Will take a long time before our state enemies, traitors are killed.
No more traffic jams.....clean air.....less people, who knows what good might come from all that shit hitting the fan?

[Whitefang]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whitefang', 'T')hat tipping points paper might make us feel elevated with them equations, bifurcations.....blablabla....
It is a simple fact anyone with 3 braincells can grasp that we are at the end of the line here.
We are way to late to avert disaster.

Let us summerize:

Climate is over the top, polar icecap broken up last september, methane venting which is an extinction level event by itself. Result is mass extinction, human life by crop failure. Moderate climate down the drain. Warm and cold spells.

Ocean life at risk from acidification, loss of plankton, base from the food chain. Many species already at risk or over the hill, cliff actually. Aridification, widespread loss of ecosystems.
Hey, even ol'Hoover going down by 2013
hoover-dam-could-stop-generating-electricity-as-soon-as-2013-t59557.html

Peakoil and about everything else has happened, no more growth, paper money or stock not backed up, western global empire bankrupt.
Global war on terror, worldly elites using home made fantasy of OBL beating Pentagon with knife and cellphone from cave , arming themselves against locals to hold palace and Benz. Using fear to make people give up car and mass consumption, their priviliges and freedom. The end game starting with global fin.crisis, riots and Gulags, FEMA camps for the whole family, with playgrounds for the little happy campers!
Also plastic coffins for the dead where the chipped bodies can be transported to the local mass grave, RIP.
Our management east and west, have been extremely busy making preps for peakoil and the life after, only 911 involves a great deal of planning for the future, London bombings, Madrid etc etc.....the whole economy ponzy scheme, wars in Africa, Middle East, Far East....idiocy that takes tonnes of energy and did accelerate that human die off-tipping point by years.


Thing is how much time before it hits? months, years?
Indeed a large system, so hopefully more than a few months, cannot see it peacefull for another 5 years.....best guess 2 or 3 years, then finally the civil war out in the open. 2012/2013 will be critical I suppose.
After disregarding the obvious we get anger, frustration and fear, the mess will be enormous, no planned cut down in steps, no order beyond the green zones. The boys oversea will take the fight home, shoot terrorists in the US instead faraway places, maybe the smart ones will turn thier guns on our masters.
Will take a long time before our state enemies, traitors are killed.
No more traffic jams.....clean air.....less people, who knows what good might come from all that shit hitting the fan?

[Cid_Yama]

We already have a good example of what will happen, in the form of Pakistan prior to the flood. (The flood took a large segment off the grid and they will never return.)

Prior to the flood, large segments of Pakistan were simply cut off the grid. These areas were the poorer sections and they would go days without power, then as things hit the boiling point, the power would miraculously come back on just long enough for things to calm back down, then be cut again.

You will see riots, but people will still need to eat and those that still have jobs will continue to go to work.

There will be no public protection of property rights (except for the wealthiest communities) and you will own what you can hold on to.

Nigerian and Somali warlords are a good example of this. You will see in this country something like the 1930's Chicago gangsters rise again as blackmarkets in all manner of hard to acquire goods thrives.

Those already running blackmarket networks in illegal items such as drugs and guns will be well placed to step into these roles as their merchandise list grows.

Much of the organized crime that already exists in the shadows, will suddenly become a visible structure as law enforcement and governance ceases to be evident.

[Whitefang]

After grid goes down here in lowlands.....panic...chaos. looting stores, army trying to control masses.
Known for a decade this were in the bottle, been busy watching ultimate survivor! hihi, more words than action, stupid me. I am outnumbered, clearly unable to defend my house here.

Solution is surely to go North to boreal forest, if needed live of the land until things are safe to settle.
My ideal place near Birkenhead lake, take the road left after the Devine transfer station.......great spot for basecamp before North, if needed. They do have an Energy Resilience Task Force in the region Squamish-Lillooet. Got the books, maps, plans, some tools to stay alive. Best place on earth to weather the storm.

[Pops]

With another read, I've keyed in on the idea that the "collapse" can be all 3 shapes depending on the time scale and proximity of the viewer to a particular "process".



The scales and plot here mean nothing except to illustrate losing 100k constructions jobs (for example) only matter if you are one of the 100k over the cliff - they don't even show up in the long view except as part of the trend.

---
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he existing base of hydro and nuclear isn't going to just disappear. 15 Quads/year in the US.

[americandream]

Cog

I'ld suggest you recommend a planned powerdown to anyone who runs a business and take note of the response.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'W')e already have a good example of what will happen, in the form of Pakistan prior to the flood. (The flood took a large segment off the grid and they will never return.)

Prior to the flood, large segments of Pakistan were simply cut off the grid. These areas were the poorer sections and they would go days without power, then as things hit the boiling point, the power would miraculously come back on just long enough for things to calm back down, then be cut again.

You will see riots, but people will still need to eat and those that still have jobs will continue to go to work.

There will be no public protection of property rights (except for the wealthiest communities) and you will own what you can hold on to.

Nigerian and Somali warlords are a good example of this. You will see in this country something like the 1930's Chicago gangsters rise again as blackmarkets in all manner of hard to acquire goods thrives.

Those already running blackmarket networks in illegal items such as drugs and guns will be well placed to step into these roles as their merchandise list grows.

Much of the organized crime that already exists in the shadows, will suddenly become a visible structure as law enforcement and governance ceases to be evident.

[vtsnowedin]

From the executive summary in the paper.
"We are at the cusp of rapid and severely disruptive changes. From now on the risk of entering a collapse must be considered significant and rising. The challenge is not about how we introduce energy infrastructure to maintain the viability of the systems we depend upon, rather it is how we deal with the consequences of not having the energy and other resources to maintain those same systems. Appeals towards localism, transition initiatives, organic food and renewable energy production, however laudable and necessary, are totally out of scale to what is approaching.
There is no solution, though there are some paths that are better and wiser than others. This is a societal issue, there is no „other‟ to blame, but the responsibility belongs to us all. What we require is rapid emergency planning coupled with a plan for longer-term adaptation."

This is a bit of truth that escapes many here. No group planned this to rip you off. The rich will lose all just as you will.


The diatribes such as this." Whitefang$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Peakoil and about everything else has happened, no more growth, paper money or stock not backed up, western global empire bankrupt.
Global war on terror, worldly elites using home made fantasy of OBL beating Pentagon with knife and cellphone from cave , arming themselves against locals to hold palace and Benz. Using fear to make people give up car and mass consumption, their priviliges and freedom. The end game starting with global fin.crisis, riots and Gulags, FEMA camps for the whole family, with playgrounds for the little happy campers!
Also plastic coffins for the dead where the chipped bodies can be transported to the local mass grave, RIP.
Our management east and west, have been extremely busy making preps for peakoil and the life after, only 911 involves a great deal of planning for the future, London bombings, Madrid etc etc.....the whole economy ponzy scheme, wars in Africa, Middle East, Far East....idiocy that takes tonnes of energy and did accelerate that human die off-tipping point by years."

[diemos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')So imagine the weak link at the power plant this time is the chip that controls the turbine speed

[vtsnowedin]

I've gotta say Pops that is one depressing paper and I didn't much care for the writing style as well. Another fine example of polysyllabic verbal diarrhea.
I would have preferred it to give some examples of the chain reaction declines they envision rather then just speak in generalities.
Sometime soon we will have to get into the nuts and bolts of decline so we can begin to make plausible predictions of conditions a few months or a few years ahead. Just saying that the whole world is going to go to S*** in a hurry some time soon isn't much help for those that plan on giving it their best shot.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')So imagine the weak link at the power plant this time is the chip that controls the turbine speed