by radon » Sun 21 Nov 2010, 18:59:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '
')..Everything you have been ranting about is wild speculation and nothing more..
This is not a debate, those are the facts. This is not a great advance for space travel, physics or anything more then a sensationalized news article that got you whipped up.
Thank you for your comments.
This article did not get me whipped up. I read about the potential use of anti-matter engines for space travel in a popular science book a long ago, when I was a schoolboy. Mr. Kaku, the scientist in the article, did not say anything new. Essentially, he cited that old book that I mentioned. And I appreciate that use of anti-matter is a far remoter possibility than creation of a fusion reactor, the latter being "always forty years away" as many say.
In fact, I picked up this thread, and specifically - your post, not because I am very obsessed with the anti-matter (though I do find it intellectually entertaining), but because it illustrates the issues of interaction of scientific teams with non-scientific people, including the managers of these teams, and the society at large.
The importance of these issues are difficult to overestimate as the scientists are those who are now at the forefront of the search for the practical solutions to our energy problems, or at least their mitigation. Yet those issues don't seem to have attracted lots of attention on this forum, despite many discussions on the technicalities of the relevant research fields (alternatives, fusion, climate change etc.)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '*') Science Fiction: Antimater propulsion has no way to work using modern technology or current scientific research. It is by definition pure science fiction.
But this is not some sort of magic. Mr. Kaku, the Japanese scientist from the article, is not a Harry Porter who promises to create miracles with a wave of magic wand. He experiments and achieves certain results which is he able to explain and reproduce. This is how the scientific advancement has always worked. The results are all around us - TVs, airplanes etc. After all, had not someone discovered an oil field in the first place, our oil age would not be possible.
Lets view this in person:
Mr. Kaku: the scientist. He and his team have just managed to obtain 38 anti-particles and retain them stable for a tenth of a second. He thinks: "Geez, we have just produced vast amount of anti-matter and managed to keep it for a huge period of time - a tenth of a second is almost eternity in particles' physics. After all, by this time
electrons have already long formed after the Bing Bang. But how am I going to explain this to the people? They do not understand the quantum mechanics. They will say: 'We can't produce any useful amount of antimatter and we cannot store it for a useful amount of time. A tenth of a second is not a useful amount of time.' But we want to have our work appreciated to its merit, and also need to provide justifications for our next year budget... I need to write something impressive that is easy to understand for a casual reader." So he retrieves the old forgotten story about space travel.
Mr. OilFinder: the reporter. Comes across as a very positive and optimistic person. Posts links to various stories on which, for whatever reasons, he always puts positive spin. Notices Mr. Kaku's story and posts it as a story showing that all our concerns regarding cost of energy will soon be gone. Does not notice, or does not really care, that the story addresses an absolutely different issue.
Mr. steam_cannon: the judge. Exercises judgment. Often in an position to exercise judgment to a lasting effect. He reads the linked article and holds: "We can't produce any useful amount of antimatter and we cannot store it for a useful amount of time. A tenth of a second is not a useful amount of time."
The scientific teams are incredibly difficult to manage. If you run a small business, than you may more or less easily sense if an employee of yours is slacking, because what you are normally doing is common sense day-to-day things. Now imagine that you have a subordinate whose work may be comprehended by only a few people on the planet, and you are not one of these people (this will always be the case at some point in the organizational hierarchy). Or indeed a single of his kind. He tells you that what he is doing will take ages, and that you would need this and that equipment and so many terrawatts and so on. You calculate the costs and ask yourself: "is he fooling me? why does it take so much time? Finally moved to us from his Dumbikistan and now going to be slacking or what? what am I going to say to the bosses in order to finance our next year?"
Or now look at it from the subordinate's perspective: "Why is he asking all these questions? Looks like he is suspicious of something.. If we want to achieve the objectives set, then we need to do what I said. But he does not look like being very fond of what I am saying.. OK, I will tell him what he wants to hear. After all, I am an emigre, I want my salary, all perks and staff of which I dreamed in Dumbikistan. Why rock the boat."
And they go on doing something that no one able to understand, mostly shuffling papers aimlessly, printing articles from time about a "breakthrough in ten years time", enjoying perks and finance that their bosses extend to them after an annual review where they exercise judgment. The readers of the articles also exercise judgment..
Is it entirely appropriate to judge flatly, with no benefit of doubt given, on subjects in which you are not totally competent? Mr.Orlov's
recent post pertinently discusses virtues of incompetence. I would not support his bias downplaying Americans though, even as he is trying to substantiate it with some research.
Maybe, if the slack and incompetence in the scientific areas related to energy were got rid of, then the fusion's "always forty years away" could be reduced to, say, "always thirty years away" at some point?
