[neontetra]

I don't believe that there will be a single computer functioning on Earth in 100 years time. Even in the most optimistic senario, this level of technology will be unsupportable. All computer data will be lost when the electical grids go dark, and the factories no longer manufacture hi tech parts to keep old computers running.

What makes me most pessimistic is that all the economic analysis of peak oil doesn't even begin to take into account the many disruptive effects of global warming, which now looks every bit as inevitable as a peak oil energy crisis.

A strange footnote: assuming human society survives, future historians will look back on history, and they will have a pretty good record of what happened until about the mid 1990s, when most information becomes electronic. At that point, the historical record will fade rapidly as history enters the computer age. Historians of the 22nd Century may well wonder "What The F*** Happened"?

[mgibbons19]

I've been thinking that for years. To the future archeologists, the dark ages will appear to have begun in 1995.

I have trouble accessing "permanently stored data" from only five years ago. Do I have a machine with the right disk drive still? Am I running the right OS.

What about the data on tapes from 30 years ago? Already for the most part lost.

Now, my library has been cancelling print versions of journals right and left. Gotta balance the budget. Certainly understandable. But, books work when the electricity is out. ejournals do not.

It really could be a dark age. How much info and knoweldge would be lost in a hard crash?

[RonMN]

interesting...maybe it's time to start getting the news paper, but not to read...to save for a future historian. Interesting topic.

[zant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'i')nteresting...maybe it's time to start getting the news paper, but not to read...to save for a future historian. Interesting topic.

[gnm]

Unfortunately most of the cheaper publications use paper or ink that would not likely last more than 100 years.

-G

[tdrive]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't believe that there will be a single computer functioning on Earth in 100 years time.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'i')nteresting...maybe it's time to start getting the news paper, but not to read...to save for a future historian. Interesting topic.

[Geology_Guy]

If a few people can escape the nukes and wars and if they have enough guns of their own there might still be computers etc is a few select places.
They will need to be ruthless and cunning and rule over their serfs (those without direct access to oil).

I think in the Mad Max movies it was called "Bartertown" In the old North American continent I would bet on Texas becoming an independent country as they will get tired of sharing their oil.

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tdrive', 'T')here will be computers, and there will be data storage.
Cheer up, future will be better than you think.

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('neontetra', 'A') strange footnote: assuming human society survives, future historians will look back on history, and they will have a pretty good record of what happened until about the mid 1990s, when most information becomes electronic. At that point, the historical record will fade rapidly as history enters the computer age. Historians of the 22nd Century may well wonder "What The F*** Happened"?

[savethehumans]

Uh--what oil? It's pretty much been pumped onshore. And offshore? Good luck getting the power to pump it, refine it, process it without having your EROEI go off the scale!

Hope people are doing like me, and printing out stuff and filing it. And if it's wearing out cuz of the acid ink and paper? Well, they did OK with scribes in the pre-Industrial era. Get some people with good handwriting and have them write the stuff down on papyrus or hemp/flax paper. Has to be hand made, limited quantity, but the IMPORTANT info would have priority, right?

We'll be doing a lot of winging it in the post-peak world. Meanwhile, everyone work on their handwriting!

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'B')ig agree. I also would wager that 2100 will be a lot nicer than 2050.

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('savethehumans', 'U')h--what oil? It's pretty much been pumped onshore. And offshore? Good luck getting the power to pump it, refine it, process it without having your EROEI go off the scale!

[cube]

Dispite all the "techie" advances that have been made the most reliable information storage system at my disposal is the old fashion ink on paper method. Everytime I need to dig up some old record, a telephone number, address, ect... my best bet is to look for some paper record of it stacked somewhere in the corner of my room. For some reason information on hard drives floppy discs, CD's , ect... tend to get lost.

[TrueKaiser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tdrive', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't believe that there will be a single computer functioning on Earth in 100 years time.

[rostov]

Storage for data retention is the biggest problem if you want to maintain a computer for more than 10 years, really. Every non-notebook workstation I use at home has a DDS4 tape drive, and I use it to backup data. Under ideal conditions, these things can last approximately 10 years.

3 things, though :

1. I have a whole stock of DDS4 tape drives and SCSI cards. Spare parts.

2. Together with the stockpile of DDS4 tapes, each need to be sealed up and stored under DRY and COOL conditions to maximize the longetivity.

3. The software needs to be something that can be found and standardized / backward-compatible even for years to come. For various reasons, I use gnu tar.

At the very least I could do is to ensure electricity dies first before the availlability of the data dies first.

[airstrip1]

If you want to store information for a long time and to guarantee that it is recoverable I would forget magnetic media and even conventional paper. The stuff that really lasts has been written in ink on vellum. For example the Lindisfarne gospels have managed to survive in Britains damp climate for over a thousand years

http://www.bbc.co.uk/tyne/features/gosp ... work.shtml

Problem is that this method does not come cheap and the books take a long time to produce.

[TrueKaiser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('airstrip1', 'I')f you want to store information for a long time and to guarantee that it is recoverable I would forget magnetic media and even conventional paper. The stuff that really lasts has been written in ink on vellum. For example the Lindisfarne gospels have managed to survive in Britains damp climate for over a thousand years

http://www.bbc.co.uk/tyne/features/gosp ... work.shtml

Problem is that this method does not come cheap and the books take a long time to produce.

[Aquila]

If there will be computers or not in afterpeak future depends on the techs using in it. Analytical Engine (the prototype of modern computers) was described in mid1800, though it was not built because of lack of funds and interest from UK government. Nevertheless it needs gear-wheels (a damn lot of) and steam engine and uses punch cards for input. It means that you can built computer somewhat equal to relay- or vacuum tubes-based ones using "clockwork" and steam techs. Of course, you cant use it for browsing forums or playing online games .

[Novus]

The fifth horseman of the apocalypse is forgetfullness. When Rome fell a lot of its' stories and technologies were completely forgotten. The formula for cement was forgotten as was the use of plumbing. The epic poems of Homer and Virgil were forgotten in the west and were only recovered because the Arabs had preserved a few copies. The concept of engineering was also lost to Mideval peoples who thought the dome on the Pantheon was held up by magic. The holy bible only survived because of Irish monks who continuely copied and recopied it down. The poem Beowulf only survived because of oral tradition.

If the doomer 2 scenario pans out I don't think our records will fair much better then the history of Rome. In 200 years the survivors will doubt if cars, planes, computers, spaceships ever existed. By then even peak oil might be forgotten.