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THE Ford Motor Company Thread (merged)

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Postby Ebyss » Sat 14 May 2005, 21:46:16

Where will they grow the biomass to make the oil?
We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.

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Re: ..................What Is This?

Postby ArimoDave » Sat 14 May 2005, 22:06:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', '[')b]What Is This?
2000 Acres including it's own ..... <list> etc.

Something that would not be sustainable post peak! Hell, it really wasn't sustainable then either. It lasted only how many years? ?
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Postby BiGG » Sat 14 May 2005, 22:07:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', 'W')here will they grow the biomass to make the oil?


Haven’t you been checking all of the current answers for antiquated oil & gas replacement in the Energy Technology threads? We have plenty of capacity for taking care of this issue on all fronts and it will be in place long before oil & gas are a problem several decades from now.

We have another five hundred million gallons per year worth of ethanol production just announced to go with the 16 plants being built. We have 84 plants in production already making up 13% of our current consumption habits.. And that’s just ethanol …… much, much more is going on right now also like geothermal and super efficient cars etc etc.
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Postby aldente » Sat 14 May 2005, 23:02:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '
')We wont let facts stand in the way of our views.


Is this the basis upon which you build your dialogue? Dick Cheney said essentially the same when stating "the American way of live is not negotiable".
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Postby Jack » Sat 14 May 2005, 23:30:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', 'W')e have another five hundred million gallons per year worth of ethanol production just announced to go with the 16 plants being built. We have 84 plants in production already making up 13% of our current consumption habits..


20,000,000.00 Barrels per day
365 Days per year
7,300,000,000.00 Barrels per year
42 Gallons per barrel
3.066E+11 Gallons per year

500,000,000.00 Gallons of Ethanol per year (your number)
0.1631% Percentage of annual requirement


If 16 new plants generate 0.1631% of our requirement, we will need 61,320 times that much to supply our needs, or a total of 981,120 plants. We will need 14716 new plants annually to provide growth. All of this applies to the U.S. alone.

This begs the question of where we will get the feedstock to supply approximately one million ethanol plants.

You state that "We have 84 plants in production already making up 13% of our current consumption habits"

Source, please.

It appears that the phrase "Numbers? We don't need no stinkin' numbers." has been taken to heart.
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Postby 0mar » Sun 15 May 2005, 00:55:03

Ethanol is fucking useless as a true fuel. This is coming from a man who is basically dedicating his life to alternative fuels.
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Postby Specop_007 » Sun 15 May 2005, 03:46:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'W')e wont let facts stand in the way of our views.
Is this the basis upon which you build your dialogue? Dick Cheney said essentially the same when stating "the American way of live is not negotiable".

Go here I think you need a new set for your sarcasm meter..
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Postby aldente » Sun 15 May 2005, 04:40:08

Specop,
This is not sarcasm, Dick Cheney actually did state that. Call me and let's discuss matters since you just don't seem to get it!!!

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Postby Ebyss » Sun 15 May 2005, 09:29:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', 'W')here will they grow the biomass to make the oil?
Haven’t you been checking all of the current answers for antiquated oil & gas replacement in the Energy Technology threads? We have plenty of capacity for taking care of this issue on all fronts and it will be in place long before oil & gas are a problem several decades from now.
We have another five hundred million gallons per year worth of ethanol production just announced to go with the 16 plants being built. We have 84 plants in production already making up 13% of our current consumption habits. And that’s just ethanol, much, much more is going on right now also like geothermal and super efficient cars etc etc.

Yes I have been checking the threads. You still are not asking the questions asked of you. If you truly want people to believe your suggestions, then you muct at least be able to answer basic questions. I ask again : Where will they grow the biomass to make the biofuel?

Saying "they have plenty of spare capacity" is no good. I need to see the data that show this to be true in order to make an informed opinion. I'm not going to take you at your word any more than you would take me at my word if I gave you a theory but had no numbers to "prove" it.

Albente, Specop is saying he was being sarcastic. His comment was poking fun at the fact that some people seem perfectly happy to believe the techno fix options despite a lack of facts.
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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 11:25:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', 'W')e have another five hundred million gallons per year worth of ethanol production just announced to go with the 16 plants being built. We have 84 plants in production already making up 13% of our current consumption habits..


20,000,000.00 Barrels per day
365 Days per year
7,300,000,000.00 Barrels per year
42 Gallons per barrel
3.066E+11 Gallons per year

500,000,000.00 Gallons of Ethanol per year (your number)
0.1631% Percentage of annual requirement


If 16 new plants generate 0.1631% of our requirement, we will need 61,320 times that much to supply our needs, or a total of 981,120 plants. We will need 14716 new plants annually to provide growth. All of this applies to the U.S. alone.

This begs the question of where we will get the feedstock to supply approximately one million ethanol plants.

You state that "We have 84 plants in production already making up 13% of our current consumption habits"

Source, please.

It appears that the phrase "Numbers? We don't need no stinkin' numbers." has been taken to heart.


OMG! You’ve gotta be joking here! No Jack, we don’t need one million ethanol plants! And yes, it appears you have taken MonteQuest’s assertion, "Numbers? We don't need no stinkin' numbers." to heart yourself but I don’t buy into either of your brands of sheer nonsense at all.

Where MonteQuest thinks numbers don’t matter is beyond me, if he wants to run around making claims like that it’s his business, and you using the fuzzy math figures quoted above is just as absurd. It would be nice if some here would start looking at things logically for a change.

Let’s start looking at reality and take one thing at a time so things don’t get distorted with gobbledygook like your numbers above. Did you conveniently forget overall consumption figures can and are being dealt with in many ways and not just Ethanol? Are you trying to pretend Ethanol has anything to do with the oil used for home heating and other such things included in your overall consumption figures quoted above? Wow! Overall consumption figures are not transportation figures and using them is not intellectually honest.

Ebyss & I were talking about the fuel used for transportation in the United States and I stated that 13% of our current gasoline usage was made from Ethanol with 16 additional plants currently under construction (I was wrong, there's more than that) In addtion to those .....

I also stated more new high capacity Ethanol plants have just been announced that will have 100,000,000 gallon per year capacity each. One plant using cow shit to power it is being built by the The Panda Group (who say in the artical more are coming) and the other three being built by White Energy Hereford LLC.

How about running some accurate figures showing only this category and we can deal with the others at another time. Currently “gasoline” consumption is about 9 million barrels per day or 44% of your total figure from above with 13% (it’s climbing) being Ethanol.

To put things into perspective here ….In 2004 the United States “Ethanol” production alone was THREE BILLION FOUR HUNDRED ONE MILLION GALLONS!!! with 80% of all revenue generated by ethanol plants being spent within a 50 mile radius of the plant, thereby creating substantial pockets of rural economic development. It took the industry ten years to reach our first billion gallons, another ten years to achieve the second billion gallons but it has taken just two years to reach the third billion gallons. (Ethanol is used for more than just gasoline)

Ethanol is just ONE thing replacing antiquated oil quickly and I hope you can see some of the doom & gloom melting away with my accurate figures listed for gasoline, Adding in the oil replacements being put into place in other areas also using the nearly endless Coal, Nuclear, Ethanol, Methane, Hydrogen, Solar, Wind, Geothermal etc. I mentioned and I don’t see any doom & gloom at all.

As I mentioned, “Scalability” is not an issue as shown above with this one technology above and “Efficiency” is changing all of those consumption numbers dramatically also.

PS. When writing 20,000,000.00 like in your quote ….. you do not add .00 on the end, its written like this = 20,000,000, not 20,000,000.00 or 7,300,000,000, not 7,300,000,000.00
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Postby ArimoDave » Sun 15 May 2005, 11:48:15

Ebyss wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')aying "they have plenty of spare capacity" is no good. I need to see the data that show this to be true in order to make an informed opinion. I'm not going to take you at your word any more than you would take me at my word if I gave you a theory but had no numbers to "prove" it.


From what I can gather, if your assertions were to coincide with BiGG's opinion, then BiGG would not need, nor want your numbers.
If your assertions, however, were to counter BiGG's opinion, then BiGG would ignore your numbers and find other conflicting data
containing only vague statements.

Statements such as the one above "they have plenty of spare capacity" is vague and subject to all kinds of interpretation.
It's like the sales pitch for a store -- "We sell our products at a fraction of our competitors." This invites the question: what fraction -- 1/2 or 3/2?
One is good for us, the other is not. The statement cannot be a lie, but it otherwise tells us nothing if we think about it.

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Postby Triffin » Sun 15 May 2005, 11:51:11

Currently “gasoline” consumption is about 9 million barrels per day ...

In 2004 the United States “Ethanol” production alone was THREE BILLION FOUR HUNDRED ONE MILLION GALLONS!!!

Ethanol is just ONE thing replacing antiquated oil quickly and I hope you can see some of the doom & gloom melting away with my accurate figures listed for gasoline, Adding in the oil replacements being put into place in other areas also using the nearly endless Coal, Nuclear, Ethanol, Methane, Hydrogen, Solar, Wind, Geothermal etc. I mentioned and I don’t see any doom & gloom at all....

US gasoline comsumption

9 million barrels/day =
378 million gallons/day =
137.970 billion gallons/year

US Ethanol production

3.4 billion gallons/year or 2.465% of
annual gasoline consumption

Ethanol will be lucky to replace MTBE and other
octane enhancers used in the refining process rather
than the transport fuel itself .. Don't forget that
one acre of corn produces ~ 360 gallons of ethanol ..
( 2.55 gallons ethanol/bushel corn and 142 bu/acre )

That's alot of additional acres just to replace
MTBE and produce 10% Ethanol blends .. Don't think
we've got it ..

Triff ..
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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 11:59:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '
')
Yes I have been checking the threads. You still are not asking the questions asked of you. If you truly want people to believe your suggestions, then you muct at least be able to answer basic questions. I ask again : Where will they grow the biomass to make the biofuel?

Saying "they have plenty of spare capacity" is no good. I need to see the data that show this to be true in order to make an informed opinion. I'm not going to take you at your word any more than you would take me at my word if I gave you a theory but had no numbers to "prove" it.


Albente, Specop is saying he was being sarcastic. His comment was poking fun at the fact that some people seem perfectly happy to believe the techno fix options despite a lack of facts.


It’s not just a case of “growing” biomass for fuel; it’s a case of using existing WASTE for making fuel. I have linked many items showing this already including the April 2005 report from the United States Department of Agriculture

A synopsis of that report can be found here at Green Car Congress

Quote: “The study found that just forestland and agricultural land alone have a potential for 1.3 billion dry tons of biomass feedstock per year: 368 million dry tons from forestlands, 998 million dry tons from agriculture. This is not an upper limit.”

A list of other items that can be used can be found here at BC International.

PS. I’m fully aware “Specop” was being sarcastic but sarcasm its just wit, not knowledge. I don’t hold it against him/her that they don’t know what I know, that’s why I’m trying to shoe these types of things here.
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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 12:11:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Triffin', '[')i]Currently “gasoline” consumption is about 9 million barrels per day ...

In 2004 the United States “Ethanol” production alone was THREE BILLION FOUR HUNDRED ONE MILLION GALLONS!!!

Ethanol is just ONE thing replacing antiquated oil quickly and I hope you can see some of the doom & gloom melting away with my accurate figures listed for gasoline, Adding in the oil replacements being put into place in other areas also using the nearly endless Coal, Nuclear, Ethanol, Methane, Hydrogen, Solar, Wind, Geothermal etc. I mentioned and I don’t see any doom & gloom at all....


US gasoline comsumption

9 million barrels/day =
378 million gallons/day =
137.970 billion gallons/year

US Ethanol production

3.4 billion gallons/year or 2.465% of
annual gasoline consumption

Ethanol will be lucky to replace MTBE and other
octane enhancers used in the refining process rather
than the transport fuel itself .. Don't forget that
one acre of corn produces ~ 360 gallons of ethanol ..
( 2.55 gallons ethanol/bushel corn and 142 bu/acre )

That's alot of additional acres just to replace
MTBE and produce 10% Ethanol blends .. Don't think
we've got it ..

Triff ..


How much of that gas in your equation can be saved yearly with efficiency savings of 10%, or 20%, or 30 & more? Most people are driving 15 mile per gallon SUV’s and like instead of 60 mpg Volkswagen types.

We are using gigantic amounts of gasoline because we can. Fuel efficient cars sit on sales lots because nobody wanted them but that is changing now with increasing prices. Increasing prices will bring efficiency back in vogue; you can see it starting in advertising already and the sheeple are responding.

We are starting to see others springing up also like Honda’s new hydrogen cars and other hybrids & electrics. These change everything as does efficiency.
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Postby Ebyss » Sun 15 May 2005, 12:32:27

How much land for biomass will have to be taken from lands used for food?

How do you intend to supply chemical fertilizers and pesticides to both biomass and food farms if there is no oil/gas to do so?

If you plan to grow these foods and biomass crops organically, where do you plan to get the fertilizer from if you are using the "biowaste" that is used in organic farming?

If you intend to continue with oil/gas based fertilizers and pesticides, how do you intend to combat soil depletion caused by these products that result in a harvest loss each subsequent year?

BiGG, I have no doubt that ethanol, biodiesel, solar, wind and hydro will really play a large part in the years following PO. They just won't replace oil and the current system we have because PO is not our only upcoming problem in the world. Global climate change/weather patterns is/are already affecting harvests everywhere, from Brazil to Europe.

Cutting down existing ancient forests and replacing them with managed forests is an idiotic suggestion. We need a variety of tree species to encourage other things to grow. Having only 3 or 4 different species of trees grown all over the country is a stupid idea at best. All it takes is one bad mite infestation and BAM! your entire tree harvest is gone : One possible example of what I'm talking about.

Monoculture is about to come around and bite us in the ass. Our modern agricultural systems are failing (yes, really), our world harvests are down for the last four years despite us dumping more and more fertilizer on the land. We have managed to suck the land dry of all it's nutrients and now we wonder why we can't grow as much as we could before. A look at pea-jay's shrink wrapped farm should give you an idea of how hard it's going to be in the future. That farm is completely dead. To grow stuff, they now have to heavily spray with pesticides and cover the entire farm in shrink wrap!!!. To say that this is not sustainable is an understatement.

To change all these farms to "organic" or self sustainable "green" farms, we need every scrap of biowaste that you want to use for ethanol. Not only that, but it is near impossible to grow large scale monoculture crops in this way (which is what you need for large scale ethanol production). The very essence of "organic" or permaculture farming depends upon a wide variety of plants and trees to provide protection against pests. And yet you are suggesting we cut down our current forest land to replace it with never ending pine forests in which nothing else can grow! With all due respect BiGG, you clearly know little or nothing about how food and biomass crops are grown, and yet this is the most important part of your BiGG plan. If you can't grow these crops, you've got nothing.
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Postby Triffin » Sun 15 May 2005, 13:50:58

How much of that gas in your equation can be saved yearly with efficiency savings of 10%, or 20%, or 30 & more? Most people are driving 15 mile per gallon SUV’s and like instead of 60 mpg Volkswagen types.

Alot , I'm sure .. I was very dissapointed that the
increased CAFE standards legislation was defeated last
month .. would have raised new vehicles to 33 mpg ..
Personally, I'm in favor of EVs .. no reason not to have them other than corporate greed ..

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Postby Jack » Sun 15 May 2005, 14:05:04

Annual U.S. Ethanol Production: 3.4E+09 gallons.

Corn used to produce same: 1.22E+09 bushels

Source: LINK

Estimated Total Corn produced in U.S. (20042005): 11.807E+09 bushels

Source: LINK

Production capability: 11.807E+09/1.22E+09 = 9.677868852

Per Triffin:

US Ethanol production

3.4 billion gallons/year or 2.465% of
annual gasoline consumption

Ergo, the system can be scaled to under 25% of annual gasoline consumption if we use all available corn.

Conclusion: Obvious

Numbers? We don't need no stinkin' numbers!
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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 15:12:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')nnual U.S. Ethanol Production: 3.4E+09 gallons.

Corn used to produce same: 1.22E+09 bushels

Source: LINK

Estimated Total Corn produced in U.S. (20042005): 11.807E+09 bushels

Source: LINK

Production capability: 11.807E+09/1.22E+09 = 9.677868852

Per Triffin:

US Ethanol production

3.4 billion gallons/year or 2.465% of
annual gasoline consumption

Ergo, the system can be scaled to under 25% of annual gasoline consumption if we use all available corn.

Conclusion: Obvious

Numbers? We don't need no stinkin' numbers!



YES! I would say the “Conclusion is Obvious! The conclusion that you are so insistent on projecting doom & gloom you will do anything to support projecting it!

I was going to bring this up next but since you linked it already, did you notice where your linked chart also mentioned “Wheat”? I think you forgot to look into grain sorghum with some even fuzzier math here Jack! Can you figure an equation showing how we can make things work instead this time cus those "stinking numbers" you don’t need for projecting doom are coming back to haunt you….

Using newly in vogue and readily available high mileage cars, hybrids, & electrics ….

Current consumption cut 20% =

Current consumption cut 35% =

Current consumption cut 50% =

Currently 11.7% of our corn production goes to domestic Ethanol =

Currently 18.5% of our corn production exported now added to Ethanol production instead =

Currently 11.7% of our grain sorghum production goes to domestic Ethanol =

Currently 41% of our grain sorghum production exported now added to Ethanol production instead =

Current land used for all other exports now added to Ethanol production instead =

Conclusion: Obvious Alright = You have some more math to do.




PS, I will give you this one … when I said 13% of our current consumption was ethanol I forgot only thirty percent was blended with in the first place making my number incorrect.
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Postby ArimoDave » Sun 15 May 2005, 15:27:43

Methinks it's a-clear
That ethanol is
Not the choice to use.

One burns more gas
To produce the corn
Than is replaced
In the tank of fuel.

BiGG it seems to not
Understand the lot
Ethanol has placed
In our overall
U.S. Consumption.


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Postby BiGG » Sun 15 May 2005, 15:51:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', 'H')ow much land for biomass will have to be taken from lands used for food?


I just showed where 30% of our current consumption can be met with EXISTING agriculture & forestry product and how that is considered a low estimate. This is WASTE we are talking about and the byproduct from the process can go back to the land.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow do you intend to supply chemical fertilizers and pesticides to both biomass and food farms if there is no oil/gas to do so?


Fertilizers and pesticides can be made from “bio” also, antiquated gas & oil are not required

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you plan to grow these foods and biomass crops organically, where do you plan to get the fertilizer from if you are using the "biowaste" that is used in organic farming?

If you intend to continue with oil/gas based fertilizers and pesticides, how do you intend to combat soil depletion caused by these products that result in a harvest loss each subsequent year?


The waste product from the biofuel process can go back to the land or used as animal feed like it is right now (animals make good fertilizer ya know, my neighbor is one of the leading scientists in the world in this field)

Quote: “Ethanol production consumes the grain’s starch, the protein, minerals, fat and fiber are concentrated during the production process to produce a highly valued and nutritious livestock feed. The majority of feed is then dried and sold as Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS). However, approximately 20-25% of the feed is shipped wet locally, reducing energy input costs and providing another market for producers.

Historically, over 85% of DDGS has been fed to dairy and beef cattle as a high-quality, economical feed ingredient. With continuing research, DDGS use in swine and poultry diets is expanding also.”


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')iGG, I have no doubt that ethanol, biodiesel, solar, wind and hydro will really play a large part in the years following PO. They just won't replace oil and the current system we have because PO is not our only upcoming problem in the world. Global climate change/weather patterns is/are already affecting harvests everywhere, from Brazil to Europe.


I’m not concerned with the world right now; I’m concerned with the place I call home. It sucks right now to live in many countries and they are not me, nor my concern. I already have lots more answers for the world also btw as Peak Oil to me is discussing answers and they are everywhere if you look.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')utting down existing ancient forests and replacing them with managed forests is an idiotic suggestion. We need a variety of tree species to encourage other things to grow. Having only 3 or 4 different species of trees grown all over the country is a stupid idea at best. All it takes is one bad mite infestation and BAM! your entire tree harvest is gone : One possible example of what I'm talking about.

Monoculture is about to come around and bite us in the ass. Our modern agricultural systems are failing (yes, really), our world harvests are down for the last four years despite us dumping more and more fertilizer on the land. We have managed to suck the land dry of all it's nutrients and now we wonder why we can't grow as much as we could before. A look at pea-jay's shrink wrapped farm should give you an idea of how hard it's going to be in the future. That farm is completely dead. To grow stuff, they now have to heavily spray with pesticides and cover the entire farm in shrink wrap!!!. To say that this is not sustainable is an understatement.

To change all these farms to "organic" or self sustainable "green" farms, we need every scrap of biowaste that you want to use for ethanol. Not only that, but it is near impossible to grow large scale monoculture crops in this way (which is what you need for large scale ethanol production). The very essence of "organic" or permaculture farming depends upon a wide variety of plants and trees to provide protection against pests. And yet you are suggesting we cut down our current forest land to replace it with never ending pine forests in which nothing else can grow! With all due respect BiGG, you clearly know little or nothing about how food and biomass crops are grown, and yet this is the most important part of your BiGG plan. If you can't grow these crops, you've got nothing.

Nobody said anything about cutting down all the forests and having only 3 or 4 different species of trees. BioWASTE fuel can be made from all the existing ones.

Canada for instance only uses 10% of it’s forests in their sustainable forestry industry right now and that’s an 80 billion dollar windfall already plus if you add in what they will be getting from the biowaste process and their current agricultural crop and they should all be rich for sure.

It appears you are looking at a dark past instead of a bright future again. We are moving at light-speed regarding engineered seed on many fronts that are disease & pest resistant along with sustainable farming. We never did it before because we didn’t have too but things are changing rapidly. I suggest you look into this a little on the United States Department of Agriculture website linked.

Remember something important, the computer you are typing on was outdated before you even bought it and computers are outdating just about everything else just as fast. It’s a different world now with these things that can do more calculations in 3 seconds then you can do in your lifetime.
Last edited by BiGG on Sun 15 May 2005, 16:03:42, edited 1 time in total.
"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil" ............ Former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani,
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