[kmann]

Yeah, also known as politics.

[copious.abundance]

Just thought I'd bump this thread as a reminder.

We're now almost a month into Q4 2010. So far, 64% of the people voting in this thread have some 'splainin' to do.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'J')ust thought I'd bump this thread as a reminder.

We're now almost a month into Q4 2010. So far, 64% of the people voting in this thread have some 'splainin' to do.

[eXpat]

The tipping point to watch: Spain
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut the real nightmare domino is Spain. Roubini refers to the Spanish debt problems as "the elephant in the room".

"You can try to ring fence Spain. And you can essentially try to provide financing officially to Ireland, Portugal, and Greece for three years. Leave them out of the market. Maybe restructure their debt down the line."

"But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain. Spain is too big to fail on one side—and also too big to be bailed out."

With Spain, the first problem is the size of its public debt: €1 trillion. (Greece, by contrast, has €300 of public debt.) Spain also has €1 trillion in private foreign liabilities.

And for problems of that magnitude, there simply are not enough resources—governmental or super-sovereign—to go around.

[Plantagenet]

First they'll put a band-aid on Ireland.
Then Greece will need more money---they lied when they got the first bailout.
Then Portugal will need help.
And then Spain will go.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Oily you have posting this nonsense for years now. And we are still in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')ily you have posting this nonsense for years now. And we are still in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

(Oily, whatever happened to your first prediction back to 2007. Did your employer Exxon pay to have it removed?)

[Hawkcreek]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Oily you have posting this nonsense for years now. And we are still in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

[diemos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')So now 5 quarters of growth are....the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression? What were the 32 quarters of growth in the 90's, the ALMOST worse economic crisis since the Great Depression?

[Pops]

^ that's a good chart, here's a couple more from CR:


Percent job loss in prev. recessions:




UI over 26 weeks:



Ya know, just from a credibility standpoint, it would seem to me that our beloved cornies would at least acknowledge that this is a bad economic situation, that there are people hurting out there - losing everything in fact. It would lend some credence to your other arguments.

But instead you insist that everything is fine and is getting better by the minute, not only energy related but economic, political, environmental, scientific.

There's no difference really in your do nothing optimism and others' do nothing pessimism, your eyes are just as closed.

[eXpat]

Vigilantes Home In On Portuguese Beacon As Opposition Claims Government Understated Debt And Deficit Figures By About 25%
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith Ireland now a lost cause, the next country which will see its bond yields surge to new records is Portugal. And just so vigilantes don't miss the hint, the Portuguese opposition party has stated that the country's budget deficit and public debt are "higher than those reported by the government." The claim is that Portuguese debt is about 30% higher than claimed by official statistics: instead of 82% of GDP, it is actually 112%. With bankrupt Greece having lied about virtually every aspect of its comatose economy, it is not as easy to dismiss the announcement as merely political bickering, and is sure to leads to at least a modest double digit basis point jump in Portuguese spreads. And once Portugal is rescued, just after New Year's, then it will be time for those last two countries of the peripheral block: Italy and Spain. And after them, it's the core's turn.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Oily you have posting this nonsense for years now. And we are still in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Oily you have posting this nonsense for years now. And we are still in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

[KingM]

I'm not a cornucopian, and it's clear that the economy is recovering very, very slowly at this point, but still, we seem to be avoiding a worst-case scenario. If oil is on the decline, it's probably a good sign, because it means that we're likely to avoid the tipping point scenario. I do think oil will peak and decline sooner, rather than later, but I'm hoping for a muddled-through solution and it looks like we might get it.

I'd still expect a tough 20-30 year period, however, with as many downs as ups. Best case.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I')'m not a cornucopian, and it's clear that the economy is recovering very, very slowly at this point, but still, we seem to be avoiding a worst-case scenario. If oil is on the decline, it's probably a good sign, because it means that we're likely to avoid the tipping point scenario. I do think oil will peak and decline sooner, rather than later, but I'm hoping for a muddled-through solution and it looks like we might get it.

I'd still expect a tough 20-30 year period, however, with as many downs as ups. Best case.

[Lore]

There is still massive consumer deleveraging going on as the last of the public’s economic compensating factor, their homes, continues to stagnate or decrease in value. So, clearly the 70% of the economy is still in poor shape, not only now, but for the foreseeable future. The problem is Americans no longer have the purchasing power to buy what the U.S. economy is capable of producing. The reason being a larger portion of total income is going to the top.

Meanwhile, we are seeing strangling sovereign debt cripple the Euro zone while Asia is putting the skids on inflation. No help there.

Any brief optimism is only supported by a period of inventory rebuilding, massive input of stimulus money, which will soon come to an end and federal reserve rates next to zero that are destined to go up.

For those looking for a return to normal I would suggest, there is no return to normal, because the old normal got us into to our present state and can‘t possibly get us out.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I')f oil is on the decline, it's probably a good sign, because it means that we're likely to avoid the tipping point scenario. I do think oil will peak and decline sooner, rather than later, but I'm hoping for a muddled-through solution and it looks like we might get it.

I'd still expect a tough 20-30 year period, however, with as many downs as ups. Best case.

[Livewire713]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I')f oil is on the decline, it's probably a good sign, because it means that we're likely to avoid the tipping point scenario. I do think oil will peak and decline sooner, rather than later, but I'm hoping for a muddled-through solution and it looks like we might get it.

I'd still expect a tough 20-30 year period, however, with as many downs as ups. Best case.