[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I') understand the direct link doesn't jump out, but IMO the separation between financial system and real wealth is directly linked to peak oil. If there is no money to be made from making things, lets create bubbles to show the illusion on wealth. Hi tech, Housing, bailouts. TPTB have to try and keep the sow on the road!

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')BTW, the hand of nature has compelled humans to do lots of things besides collectivize.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I') understand the direct link doesn't jump out, but IMO the separation between financial system and real wealth is directly linked to peak oil. If there is no money to be made from making things, lets create bubbles to show the illusion on wealth. Hi tech, Housing, bailouts. TPTB have to try and keep the show on the road!

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')Hi Quinny. I don't agree. The derivatives markets were not created as a response to peak oil, but as a means for the elite to make more money in a deregulated environment.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')If I am performing a service here, its to advice you to expect disappointment right till the bitter end, when capitalism collapses and the the hand of nature compels us to collectivise.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')
No, really the credit crisis is due to the neolithic revolution.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', ' ')The economy tanks in the fall of 2008 even if gas is a buck a gallon, end of story.

[americandream]

Quinny

Securitisation (derivatives) had a whole raft of uses ranging from tax mitigation to wealth creation. It really started in earnest in the late '80's.

The state of the commodities market in terms of reserves had nothing to do with this development. In fact, there are few in the financial services industry who really give any credence to peak oil. If they were to do so, I suspect the market in long assets such as stocks would have been dead a long time ago.

[Quinny]

AD & Davep

I'm not saying that there is any kind of conspiracy or master plan here, simply that the financial sector will find a way to make money even if real wealth creation is impossible. I know bubbles go back a long way, but it now seems that the majority of investments are based on hype and over valuations. When I was on the board of a large superannuation fund late 90's (I think) we had 3 top stockbrokers who each managed part of the fund. One of them was nearly canned because of lower returns mainly because they took an approach based on fundamentals and didn't jump on the Vodaphone bandwagon. At the time Vodaphone had a higher marke cap than the entire bottom half of the FTSE 100. Fortunately we didn't can them and they brought in the best results over the next couple of years.

I can't remember the thread, (but it was quite recent) where Shorty/Xeno posted a graph showing you don't need resources for GDP to grow. You both seem to accept the need for resources for growth. Do you not accept that the total lack of correlation between money and real wealth creation is to a large part driven by resource constraints?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'Q')uinny

Securitisation (derivatives) had a whole raft of uses ranging from tax mitigation to wealth creation. It really started in earnest in the late '80's.

The state of the commodities market in terms of reserves had nothing to do with this development. In fact, there are few in the financial services industry who really give any credence to peak oil. If they were to do so, I suspect the market in long assets such as stocks would have been dead a long time ago.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'A')D & Davep

I'm not saying that there is any kind of conspiracy or master plan here, simply that the financial sector will find a way to make money even if real wealth creation is impossible. I know bubbles go back a long way, but it now seems that the majority of investments are based on hype and over valuations. When I was on the board of a large superannuation fund late 90's (I think) we had 3 top stockbrokers who each managed part of the fund. One of them was nearly canned because of lower returns mainly because they took an approach based on fundamentals and didn't jump on the Vodaphone bandwagon. At the time Vodaphone had a higher marke cap than the entire bottom half of the FTSE 100. Fortunately we didn't can them and they brought in the best results over the next couple of years.

I can't remember the thread, (but it was quite recent) where Shorty/Xeno posted a graph showing you don't need resources for GDP to grow. You both seem to accept the need for resources for growth. Do you not accept that the total lack of correlation between money and real wealth creation is to a large part driven by resource constraints?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'Q')uinny

Securitisation (derivatives) had a whole raft of uses ranging from tax mitigation to wealth creation. It really started in earnest in the late '80's.

The state of the commodities market in terms of reserves had nothing to do with this development. In fact, there are few in the financial services industry who really give any credence to peak oil. If they were to do so, I suspect the market in long assets such as stocks would have been dead a long time ago.

[lulubel]

I read somewhere (can't remember where now) that the consumer culture was a direct result of the increased production that oil allowed. We were able to manufacture more, so businesses needed to find a way to sell more - hence the development of fashion and advertising. It makes a lot of sense that cultures who are used to making money through manufacturing will look for other ways to do it when manufacturing goods isn't profitable any more. So they create ponzi schemes that will inevitably crash, and the majority of people lose. I think the root cause of the 2008 crash is oil because our society has developed the way it has because of it, but there were a lot of immediate triggers, and $147 a barrel was just one of them.

Regarding how society will organise itself in the future, I think it will depend on whether we THINK or REACT. If we think, we might work out a way to preserve our way of life to a reasonable degree. If we react, we'll form into small groups with others who share our same genetic material, and try to kill anyone who competes with us - just as animals have done throughout history - and destroy everything we're fighting to preserve.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')t odds with the reality of its limits. In due course, this will be moulded by these larger forces which invariably default to the collective.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lulubel', '
')I think the root cause of the 2008 crash is oil because our society has developed the way it has because of it,

[Quinny]

There was an interesting link posted here about Freud's cousin (or nephew) who is apparently considered the founder of the PR industry. It's a bit messy because each video is in several parts, but I watched all the parts and found it fascinating how easily we can be manipulated on a grand scale.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lulubel', 'I') read somewhere (can't remember where now) that the consumer culture was a direct result of the increased production that oil allowed. We were able to manufacture more, so businesses needed to find a way to sell more - hence the development of fashion and advertising. It makes a lot of sense that cultures who are used to making money through manufacturing will look for other ways to do it when manufacturing goods isn't profitable any more. So they create ponzi schemes that will inevitably crash, and the majority of people lose. I think the root cause of the 2008 crash is oil because our society has developed the way it has because of it, but there were a lot of immediate triggers, and $147 a barrel was just one of them.

Regarding how society will organise itself in the future, I think it will depend on whether we THINK or REACT. If we think, we might work out a way to preserve our way of life to a reasonable degree. If we react, we'll form into small groups with others who share our same genetic material, and try to kill anyone who competes with us - just as animals have done throughout history - and destroy everything we're fighting to preserve.

[lulubel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lulubel', '
')I think the root cause of the 2008 crash is oil because our society has developed the way it has because of it,

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lulubel', '
')As for letting people off the hook, as far as I'm concerned no-ones on the hook. We're all too busy acting like kids in a school playground yelling, "He started it!" I couldn't care less who's to blame for our current situation. We're on the verge of a crisis like humanity has never seen before, and until we stop pointing fingers at particular groups, and start to admit it's come about because of our chronic dependency on fossil fuels, we're not going to do anything to prevent it.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'T')here was an interesting link posted here about Freud's cousin (or nephew) who is apparently considered the founder of the PR industry. It's a bit messy because each video is in several parts, but I watched all the parts and found it fascinating how easily we can be manipulated on a grand scale.

[lulubel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'P')ersonally, I think we're all on the hook. We can just point at ourselves and realize nobody is going to do anything to mitigate the situation if we don't do it ourselves.