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Mexico collapse watch thread

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Civil War and Cantarell depletion threaten Mexico

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Fri 05 Nov 2010, 06:21:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'M')exico is already a failed state. It's been that way for some time. Our sole policy towards Mexico should be containment, otherwise the border region will become Mad Max central.


I think and end to the drug war by across the board legalization would yield better results, since the profit margins of the cartels would be destroyed. Containment will cost a lot of money that the U.S. really doesn't have, and it won't stop the cartels from trying anyway, and they are getting more armed. As the containment got more stringent, the cartels will resort to more drastic measures; they have already build vehicles with mounted guns on them. Killing the drug war would save taxpayers billions and end most of this madness, given that the drug war is the reason the drug trade is profitable to begin with.

How to go about that is another issue; even if an overwhelming majority of Americans supported this legalization(which they currently don't), Congress will not ever let it happen unless we can get some viable 3rd parties in.

Containment will not only fail, it will result in greatly diminished civil liberties and cost too much in both money and lives.

The border will be doom central in the future; I'd bet money on it. :(
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 05 Nov 2010, 07:42:29

Unfortunately there are many areas where there is, to us at least, a rational action to be taken. Legalization is one, there are others in other arenas.

The problem is that no matter how good these ideas are, no matter how surely they will be effective, it is not in the herds will, so they will not happen.

Our challenge is to figure out how to survive if not thrive in the deteriorating environment.

"It's not getting any smarter out there. You have to come to grips with stupidity and make it work for you."
Something pretty close to what Frank Zappa said.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Mesuge » Fri 05 Nov 2010, 08:18:48

Yep, recalling some 80s talk show, where Zappa was smiling, when being asked in somewhat loaded style, that he has become a skilled "capitalist" with portfolio of several millions.

PS relatively solid pile of monies at that point of time.. :twisted:
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 05 Nov 2010, 08:31:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'U')nfortunately there are many areas where there is, to us at least, a rational action to be taken. Legalization is one, there are others in other arenas.

The problem is that no matter how good these ideas are, no matter how surely they will be effective, it is not in the herds will, so they will not happen.

Our challenge is to figure out how to survive if not thrive in the deteriorating environment.

"It's not getting any smarter out there. You have to come to grips with stupidity and make it work for you."
Something pretty close to what Frank Zappa said.



I very much agree.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby rangerone314 » Mon 15 Nov 2010, 22:24:39

Drug War Forces Residents To Flee Mexican Town
http://www.npr.org/2010/11/15/131337118/drug-war-forces-residents-to-flee-mexican-town
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')arring Mexican drug cartels have claimed a new victim along the U.S. Southern border: the town of Ciudad Mier. Constant gunfights and spiraling violence between rival drug gangsters have forced the evacuation of the Mexican town.

A shelter for fleeing residents of Mier has been set up in the Lions Club in the nearby town of Miguel Aleman, and it has become, in the words of Mexico's Proceso magazine, the first refugee camp of the Mexican cartel war.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 16 Nov 2010, 19:29:27

Just saw this chart on Cantrell.

Cantarell Finally Slips Below 500 kbpd

http://gregor.us/oil/cantarell-finally- ... -500-kbpd/
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 18 Nov 2010, 00:10:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')'ll keep my eyes open for Mexican Zombies. 8O


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f_jLHHC ... re=related

What's the Spanish word for BRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNSSSSSSSSSS?
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby anador » Thu 18 Nov 2010, 12:31:51

CEEEEEEERRRRRRREEEEEBROOOOOOOOOOSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!
@#$% highways
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 21 Dec 2010, 22:37:57

Just bumping the thread.

Anything new to report South of the border?

Something got me thinking that Mexico is not doing to well. I was thinking that Mexico falling would be very good sign that the end is near for the US.

We hear a lot about the PIGS. Anyone know how Mexico stands up to that crowd?
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 22 Dec 2010, 00:31:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')exico released figures this week showing that 30,196 people have been killed in drug-related violence over the past four years, with a record 12,456 killed from January through November, compared to 9,600 deaths in 2009 and 5,400 in 2008.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he death toll from the drug war has surged each year since Mexican President Felipe Calderón took office and began dispatching the military to fight organized crime. Violence has been particularly brutal along the US-Mexico border. Ciudad Juárez also saw record violence this year: Its death toll surpassed 3,000.

Nevertheless, the Mexican government continues to tout its successes in fighting the drug war, especially its capture of major drug traffickers in the past year. High-profile arrests have included Edgar “La Barbie” Valdez and Sergio "El Grande" Villarreal, alongside the killings of Arturo Beltran last December and Antonio Ezequiel “Tony Tormenta” Cardenas in November. Last week a leader of La Familia in Michoacán, Nazario "El Chayo" Moreno, was also killed in a shootout, according to the government.


http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2010/1217/Mexico-touts-progress-in-drug-war-but-death-toll-rises-to-30-197

Why 12,000 fatalities in a neighboring country, including 3000 in one of the border cities is not the #1 news story on every network is frankly beyond me....
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Revi » Wed 22 Dec 2010, 10:28:52

Most of the violence happens in northern Mexico. It's not safe there any more, but southern Mexico may still be okay for a visit. I have a friend who goes to the Yucatan and reports that it's still mellow down there. I think we may suffer just as badly as the Mexicans. We owe all sorts of money, drive big cars and still are trying to keep a big lifestyle going. The average Mexican is living a much simpler life, so they may not have as far to fall.

On the other hand I have heard that the middle class is fleeing the northern cities such as Juarez and Monterrey to get to a safer place in the US. That can't be good for the stability of the place. The cartels recently tried to extort the teachers to get their Christmas bonuses. They threatened to blow up the schools and the kids unless it was given to them. That is a symptom of a society where the criminals are way out of control.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/2010/12/1 ... ns-to.html
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 22 Dec 2010, 11:25:09

Still no Mexican Zombies.....
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Revi » Wed 22 Dec 2010, 15:00:04

Mexicans seem like pretty mellow people to me. I lived in Guatemala for a couple of years, and got to know Latin Americans. They are stuck in a dystopia that is progressively worse every year.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Oneaboveall » Wed 22 Dec 2010, 20:29:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'M')exicans seem like pretty mellow people to me. I lived in Guatemala for a couple of years, and got to know Latin Americans. They are stuck in a dystopia that is progressively worse every year.

Trust me when I say that Mexicans are definitely not Guatemalans.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 22 Dec 2010, 20:52:29

Mexico needs a dictatorship that rounds up all the drug lords, all their friends, associates & family members and sends them off to nice little camps, where they go in but they don't come out.

Scratch that... send HALF of them there.

Hang the other HALF from street and traffic lights like Christmas ornaments. Even if it doesn't deter them, it would eventually eliminate all of them.

Mexico is proof-positive that plutocracy masquerading as "democracy" is a corrupt, ineffective, weak, and self-destructive system. Something other in-name-only "democracies" will soon learn.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby KingM » Fri 24 Dec 2010, 12:58:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oneaboveall', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'M')exicans seem like pretty mellow people to me. I lived in Guatemala for a couple of years, and got to know Latin Americans. They are stuck in a dystopia that is progressively worse every year.

Trust me when I say that Mexicans are definitely not Guatemalans.


And not only that, but Latin America is in far better shape than it was 30 years ago or even 10 years ago. It's not a dystopia. In fact, Mexico is a fairly prosperous country, wealthier than most countries in the world. It's poor compared to the United States, but most places are.

Have any of you spouting off about the collapse of Mexico ever been there? In 95% of the country you can stroll around without fear at night, the Mexicans are proud of their country and culture, there are fabulous things to see and do, and the Mexicans are gradually becoming more prosperous as their education levels climb and their birth rates fall.

There's a saying in Spanish that applies to a lot of the posters on this thread. En boca cerrada, no entran moscas.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby KingM » Fri 24 Dec 2010, 13:40:19

That chart is a joke. The type of unrest you're likely to see in France is nothing like what you'd see in India or Saudi Arabia if those countries went off, yet they're all in the same category. And do you really think that Scotland and England face higher risks of social unrest than Cambodia?

Look at Latin America today, then compare it to the revolutions, dictatorships, wars, coups, etc., that have plagued it for the last two centuries. Even Mexico, relatively peaceful compared to its neighbors, is nothing like it was. Where is the high inflation, the fixed elections. the murder of dissidents, the country lurching from one crisis to the next? How can you possibly look south of the border and not say that things are better, more peaceful in Latin America than they have been since 1492*?

Mexico is not on the verge of collapse and anyone who says so has either never been outside a few troubled border regions, if they've ever spent much time in the country at all.

(*Leaving aside the fact that before 1492 was even more violent, but that the actors were different.)

ETA: I mistyped China for Cambodia and looking closer, I think that's actually Laos, but still, the point holds.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby KingM » Fri 24 Dec 2010, 15:01:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')e have run from these problems for decades. They will not be fixed because we don't have the will, the future, or the cheap resources, especially petroleum anymore


But that's different than a thread waiting for Mexico to give up the ghost. Mexico is a country with a solid culture in a stable part of the world. If we do suffer a societal collapse, Mexico will be one of the last to go. First, you'd see more countries in Africa following the ignominious path of Somalia, Zimbabwe, and the Ivory Coast, and then you'd see some countries in the Arab world follow Afghanistan's example, followed by former Soviet republics and then island nations like Indonesia or the Philippines that are collections of different people, and then finally you might see India go tits up, which would be shocking, followed by perhaps some Andean nations like Bolivia or Peru.

I think Mexico would hold together a lot longer. It is richer, it is more or less the same culture and religion from north to south (apart from a few restive border regions), and if it did break into anarchy it would mean that the US itself was on the brink. The US is in the next, final batch of countries that would die. By the time the US dies, the Dark Ages are upon us.
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