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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

"Last and First Men, ..." Olaf Stapledon

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"Last and First Men, ..." Olaf Stapledon

Unread postby Berkeley » Fri 13 May 2005, 21:53:29

It's remarkable how many details of peak oil were foreseen seventy-five years ago in the science fiction novel, Last and First Men, A Story of the Near and Far Future, by Olaf Stapledon (published 1931):

"The economic life of the human race had been for some time based on coal, but latterly oil had been found a far more convenient source of power; and as the oil store of the planet was much smaller than its coal store, and the expenditure of oil had of course been uncontrolled and wasteful, a shortage was already being felt. Thus the national ownership of the remaining oil fields had become a main factor in politics and a fertile source of wars. America, having used up most of her own supplies, was now anxious to compete with the still prolific sources under Chinese control..."
(THE RUSSO-GERMAN WAR)

"In the Far West, the United States of America openly claimed to be custodians of the whole planet. Universally feared and envied, universally respected for their enterprise, yet for their complacency very widely despised, the Americans were rapidly changing the whole character of man's existence. By this time every human being throughout the planet made use of American products, and there was no region where American capital did not support local labor. Moreover the American press, gramophone, radio, cimematograph and televisor ceaselessly drenched the planet with American thought. Year by year the aether reverberated with echoes of New York's pleasures and the religious fervours of the Middle West. What wonder, then, that America, even while she was despised, irresistibly moulded the whole human race... a huge wilderness of opinionated self-deceivers, in whom, surprisingly, an outworn religious dogma was championed with the intolerant optimism of youth.... Thus it was that America sank further and further into Americanism. Vast wealth and industry, and also brilliant invention, were concentrated upon puerile ends.... Both as individuals and collectively, they became increasingly frightened of criticism, increasingly prone to hate and blame, increasingly self-righteous, increasingly hostile to the critical intelligence, increasingly superstitious."
(EUROPE AND AMERICA)

“Inevitably a serious conflict at last occurred. As usual the cause was both economic and sentimental. The economic cause was the demand for fuel. A century earlier a very serious oil famine had so sobered the race that the League of Nations had been able to impose a system of cosmopolitan control upon the existing oil fields, and even the coal fields. It had also imposed strict regulations as to the use of these invaluable materials. Oil in particular was only to be used for enterprise in which no other source of power would serve. The cosmopolitan control of fuel was perhaps the supreme achievement of the League, and it remained a fixed policy of the race long after the league had been superceded....
But at the time with which we are at present dealing, means had recently been found of profitably working the huge deposits of fuel in Antarctica. This vast supply unfortunately lay technically beyond the jurisdiction of the World Fuel Control Board. America was first in the field, and saw in Antarctic fuel a means for her advancement, and for her self-imposed duty of Americanizing the planet. China, fearful of Americanization, demanded that the new sources should be brought under the jurisdiction of the Board. For some years feeling had become increasingly violent on this point, and both peoples had by now relapsed into the crude old nationalistic mood. War began to seem almost inevitable…”
(CHINA AND AMERICA – The Conflict)


“The collapse of this first world-civilization was due to the sudden failure of the supplies of coal. All the original fields had been sapped centuries earlier, and it should have been obvious that those more recently discovered could not last for ever. For some thousands of years the main supply had come from Antarctica. So prolific was this continent that latterly a superstition had arisen in the clouded minds of the world-citizens that it was in some mysterious manner inexhaustible. Thus when at last, in spite of strict censorship, the news began to leak out that even the deepest possible borings had failed to reveal further vegetable deposits of any kind, the world was at first incredulous.
The sane policy would have been to abolish the huge expense of power on ritual flying, which used more of the community's resources than the whole of productive industry. But to believers in Gordelpus such a course was almost unthinkable. Moreover it would have undermined the flying aristocracy....
It is not easy to conceive the strange mental disorder that now afflicted the whole race, symbolizing itself in some cases by actual physical vertigo. After centuries of prosperity, of routine, of orthodoxy, men were suddenly possessed by a doubt which they regarded as diabolical. No one said a word of it; but in each man’s own mind the fiend raised a whispering head, and each was haunted by the troubled eyes of his fellows. Indeed the whole changed circumstances of his life jibed at his credulity.
Earlier in the career of the race, this world crisis might have served to wake men into sanity. Under the first pressure of distress they might have abandoned the extravagances of their culture. But by now the ancient way of life was too deeply rooted. Consequently we observe the fantastic spectacle of a world engaged, devotedly and even heroically, on squandering its resources in vast aeronautical displays, not through single-minded faith in their rightness and efficacy, but solely in a kind of desperate automatism....
But inevitably, as the conditions of life became more and more severe, docility gave way to desperation…. Dismay and rage spread over the planet…. The great stations of water-power and wind-power were wrecked by lunatic mobs who sought vengeance upon anything associated with authority. Whole populations vanished in an orgy of cannibalism…. Only in the most natural fertile areas of the world could the diseased remnant of the population now scrape a living from the soil. Elsewhere, utter desolation. With easy strides the jungle came back into its own.”
(AN AMERICANIZED PLANET – The Downfall)
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Unread postby Cola-Is-Petroleum » Fri 13 May 2005, 23:27:49

Berkeley, is that for real? That's unbelievable! This guy was so on the ball its eery! 8O :shock:
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Unread postby tmazanec1 » Sun 15 May 2005, 14:34:13

Yep, it's for real. He even had a war between Italy and France as a sort of World War 2, and one between France and England over the death of a Princess by an airplane accident leading to Diana type hysteria.
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