[Graeme]

Oil: How much is there, how much more will we use and at what price?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')assions run high where oil is concerned. Witness the tumult over the BP drilling disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. But much of the public discussion about oil has been long on emotion and opinion while short on scientific fact, a state of affairs that Steven Gorelick, a professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford, takes steps to rectify in his book, Oil Panic and the Global Crisis – Predictions and Myths, published earlier this year.

In Geofluids, a reviewer wrote, "Gorelick weaves an intriguing story from what might have been a dreadfully boring, yet impressive collection of data and observations."

For close to a century, there have been predictions that it is only a matter of time – perhaps just a few decades – before world oil reserves begin to run dry. The prospect seems worrisome, but with continuing advances in renewable energy, does it really matter? Stanford Report talked with Gorelick, a senior fellow at Stanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment, to get answers to that and other questions.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world may very well go through a peak in oil use, but a peak and decline is far more likely to reflect a decrease in oil demand rather than production choked by perilously low global availability of oil.

[Carlhole]

PhysORG
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')oo often the debate over the world's use of oil has been marred by skewed information. In his recently published book, 'Oil Panic and the Global Crisis,' Stanford Professor Steven Gorelick lays out the facts about oil – its production and prospects – along with the consequences of both continued use and a shift to other energy.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')Let the trashing begin.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'I')ts a decent book. The guy covers the basis, seems to understand everything necessary, doesn't fall for Doomer Dogma.
He's a little rough on how he goes after the Hubbert curve, I might disagree with him there because he seems a little picky, but he's correct in his overall assumptions as to its value.
Should be on every Doomers nightstand to keep the evils of groupthink away.

[Carlhole]

Read some of the reviews at Amazon

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')orelick notes that while the era of "easy" oil may well be over, how much oil is extracted from difficult sources remains to be seen. I quite agree with the author that the next or shall we say the current stage of extraction and prospection would ultimately be dictated by the price of oil. Many commodities traders believe a US$50 per barrel price or above would ensure extraction from difficult to reach places. However, that is not to say that a high price equates to the planet running out of oil according to the author.

Every key topic from the Malthusian doctrine to M.K. Hubert's approach, from Canadian Oil sands to drilling offshore and the relative cost of imported oil for consuming nations has been discussed in context of the resource depletion debate and in some detail. The text is backed-up by ample figures, graphics and forecasts from a variety of industry recognised sources, journals and organisations. Unlike a straight cut bland discourse, the narrative of this book is very engaging.

It may well be data intensive, but if the whole point of the book is substantiating an argument - then the data adds value and makes for an informed argument - for which author deserves full credit. In all my years as a journalist who has written on oil and follows the crude markets closely, I feel this book is the most engaging, detailed and well written one that I have come across in its genre. I am happy to recommend it to commodities professionals, economists, students and just about anyone interested in reading up on the oil depletion debate.

[Carlhole]

[Carlhole]

OnlineLibrary.com Book Review: Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions and Myths Gorelick, Steven M. , 2010

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he book ‘Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions and Myths’ by Steven M. Gorelick is a refreshing and methodical exposé of the most common myths about oil that many of us hold as truths. Gorelick weaves an intriguing story from what might have been a dreadfully boring, yet impressive collection of data and observations. It was a pleasure to read and learn from this book, which I highly recommend to experts and non-experts alike, particularly our leaders in government. Every president of the USA since Eisenhower has promised to reduce America’s dependence on foreign oil, yet as each administration nears the end of term, we are more addicted than ever and we still lack a coherent national energy policy. We currently import about 70% of our oil at a cost of $700bn per year; four times the annual cost of the Iraq war. Perhaps this book is a small step in the right direction.

The book begins by asking the reader whether five deceptively simple statements are true or false. By the end of the book, I was convinced that two of my answers were wrong and another was at best a bit shaky. Gorelick never formally answers these questions; he leaves that work for the reader, but the book provides a wealth of information that instills doubt, shakes paradigms and forces some serious rethinking of one’s opinions.

The book is divided into five chapters, each with a summary and appended list of notes and supporting references. Chapter 1, ‘End of the Oil Era’ introduces the problem: if peak oil production marks the beginning of the end of the Oil Era, then as we reach that point it becomes ever more urgent that we re-structure our oil-based society. But when will peak oil production occur? The chapter gives a clear description of the three adjustable parameters that control the slope, peak height and time of the peak for the famous (or infamous, depending on your viewpoint) M. King Hubbert logistic curve that predicts the availability of petroleum resources versus time...

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n Chapter 4, ‘Counter-Arguments to Imminent Global Oil Depletion’ Gorelick shines as an independent thinker who does not simply accept what the ‘experts’ say. I thoroughly enjoyed his methodical disassembly of various myths: Hubbert’s predicted production rates were accurate; a decline in production indicates scarcity; resource assessments provide useful endowment estimates; there is little oil left to be found; the world cannot afford increases in oil use as developing nations demand more oil; there are no substitutes for oil.

Chapter 5 ‘Beyond Panic’ considers three key questions: (1) where is an efficiency gain possible, (2) will increases in efficiency reduce demand, and (3) what might ultimately substitute for oil? Rather than steal thunder from the book, I leave it to the reader to study Gorelick’s suggestions about how we should proceed to address the global oil crisis. As a teaser, Gorelick convincingly argues that our current paradigm to explain oil depletion is simply wrong. That paradigm is based on the assumptions that the global oil endowment is a known quantity and that consumers buy what is available because production rates control delivery to the market. The book unequivocally shows that these two assumptions are false. First, an accurate mass balance calculation is impossible for various reasons, such as technological advances and the politics of oil-producing countries, which can transform resources into reserves and vice versa. For example, resource assessments as conducted by the US Geological Survey consistently project larger and larger estimates of the worldwide oil endowment over time. The end of the Oil Era is a moving target that continues to march into the future. Forecasts of global oil depletion should not depend on these global resource estimates, nor should they rely so heavily on simplistic projections of recorded discovery and production data. Second, production does not limit oil consumption; rather consumer demand at a given price controls how much oil is produced. If there is a Hubbert-like peak in global oil production in the next few decades, it will probably reflect decreased oil demand rather than oil depletion.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'L')et the trashing begin.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'L')et the trashing begin.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'W')ell, does anyone here believe in the predictive value of a bell shaped curve thingy?

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'W')ell, does anyone here believe in the predictive value of a bell shaped curve thingy?

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'I')t isn't basic math. Hubbert (1956) didn't even provide an equation for it, just hand waved at grid paper. Later on Hubbert and others started curve fitting certain things, but that was out of convenience, not because of any relationship between "basic math" and a given rate of extraction. The science is pretty clear that this (at least in terms of URR) was, and is, a statistically ridiculous idea (Cavallo, 2004). The book is relatively clear on some of these topics, you should read it.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'C')an you describe any new ideas from this book that have not been discussed in these forums?

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')I suppose a doomer could have a beef with the way the doom argument is presented, but we haven't read the book to see how good a job the author actually did.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')I suppose a doomer could have a beef with the way the doom argument is presented, but we haven't read the book to see how good a job the author actually did.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')Oh well, there goes another $50 off to Amazon.com. Sure is expensive being smarter than everyone else.