[Revi]

It's not looking like oil will make a rally any time soon. It's breaking down. It's because the economy is in such hard shape that people aren't even riding their wave runners any more.

We still have a good 4 months to go in 2010, so we'll see what transpires from here.

[eXpat]

Looks like OPEC agrees with my guess for the highest price for the year
OPEC Members Seek $100 Oil to Counter Dollar Weakness
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The 13 percent decline in the Dollar Index since June has led some OPEC members to call for oil to rise to $100 a barrel.

The U.S. currency’s weakness means the “real price” of oil is about $20 less than current levels, Venezuelan Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said after yesterday’s meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna. The group, which accounts for 40 percent of global crude output, left targets unchanged and called for greater adherence to quotas, which are being exceeded by a supertanker load a day.

“OPEC is not interested in compliance right now,” Nordine Ait-Laoussine, the former Algerian oil minister who now runs Geneva-based consultant Nalcosa SA, said in an interview in Vienna. “They’re concerned about the dollar because as the dollar weakens, prices go up. They’re not paying any attention to production discipline.”

The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against those of six U.S. trading partners, was at 76.54 at 2:27 p.m. in London today, near its lowest level since December, from a 2010 high of 88.405 on June 7. It has dropped 6.1 percent in the past month. The nominal value of OPEC’s net oil export revenue will be $818 billion in 2011, 10 percent more than this year, according to U.S. Energy Department forecasts.

OPEC is exceeding its own quotas as prices rise above the $70-to-$80-a-barrel band that Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said is “ideal.” The International Energy Agency estimated that the group achieved 54 percent of its promised supply cuts in September.

‘Love’ $100

Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corp., said a higher crude price would help OPEC offset the loss of revenue from the weaker dollar.

“We would love to see $100 a barrel,” Ghanem said yesterday in Vienna. “We’re losing real income. Libya in particular would like to see a higher oil price.”

[TheAntiDoomer]

OF2, SoS, and Myself still burning up the top 10.

[pup55]

True enough, no runaway oil price, you three are fattening up and we owe you at least six months of love and respect, which is priceless, of course..... Long time since there has been a standings change. We were within a dollar or so last week when the price was up around 85.....

We're down to the last 75 days in the year, give or take, the fat lady is warming up...

[TheAntiDoomer]

Pup, can we have a loony tune award each year too for most outrageous prediction? The 2 nominees for 2010 right now would be Armageddon (+200$ close) or Mcgowanmj (27$) close.

[PeakOiler]

Actually there was a change in standings as of 13-Oct. Here's my scorecard:

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'A')ctually there was a change in standings as of 13-Oct. Here's my scorecard:

[pup55]

Pretty good. I am tempted to do a bonus question next year: Barrels of oil per ounce of gold... We tried something like that with the Euro two years ago but nobody cared....

[copious.abundance]

Whoa, I've been dethroned!

But not by much.

[obixman]

<sigh>

My time will come.

[TheAntiDoomer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')hoa, I've been dethroned!

But not by much.

[basil_hayden]

Just when I thought oil would never reach my predicted 105.83 per barrel, QE2 slips in! Yay!

Up for the next month then down to close at 84.19, locking in the respect and admiration so deserved by being in the top 10 for the last five years in a row (I think, maybe four years in a row). Now that's consistency.

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'J')ust when I thought oil would never reach my predicted 105.83 per barrel, QE2 slips in! Yay!

Up for the next month then down to close at 84.19, locking in the respect and admiration so deserved by being in the top 10 for the last five years in a row (I think, maybe four years in a row). Now that's consistency.

[PeakOiler]

As of 26-Oct, Oilfinder2 retook the #1 spot, but as of the 2-Nov data, SeaGypsy took back the #1 spot. I remained at #3 the last couple of weeks.

It appears, however, that a new high price may be set by the time the EIA releases the data next Wednesday. If there is a new high price for the year, I'll post another scorecard.

My bet with Revi is still on. Looks like I'll get a pint of maple syrup made from his trees. As a consolation gift, and me being a gentleman, I'm sending Revi a small sample of homegrown pecans. He has to shell them however...


Glad I don't have to make the syrup from the sap.

[pup55]

you know kmann has been prodigious in a couple of the previous challenges, and I believe that he has an excellent chance, if the oil price goes nuts between now and the end of the year.... wouldn't that be something....

[PeakOiler]

A new high price was reached this last week. Here's my scorecard:

[KingM]

So far it looks like the Cornucopian types have been more correct about 2010 than the Doomers. In general.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'S')o far it looks like the Cornucopian types have been more correct about 2010 than the Doomers. In general.

[Revi]

I don't think it will hit the $157 mark, so I'll probably be sending some maple syrup down to Peak Oiler.

There is a good possibility we'll be hitting at least that in the next couple of years. Check this prediction out by Gregor:

http://gregor.us/oil/crude-oil-producti ... egor.us%29

[TheAntiDoomer]

Oil crashes back down to 82$ giving OF2 about a 2 point lead. Gonna be an exciting finish.