From http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... refer=home
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Global Demand
Oil use is expected to surge in the second half of the year as refiners prepare for the Northern Hemisphere winter. Global demand will rise 2.1 percent to an average 84.27 million barrels a day this year, the International Energy Agency said last month. Non-OPEC countries, which pump 60 percent of the world's oil, will boost output by 1.8 percent in 2005, the agency said.
``We still have a very tight demand and supply situation and there's not very much spare capacity,'' said Simon Wardell, an analyst at Global Insight Inc. in London. ``Everybody is happy buying stocks now and sitting on them for a while. With gloomier economic news, people may reconsider whether the fourth-quarter demand surge will be as big as expected.''
PeakOil is You
Where will new oil production come from?
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Where will new oil production come from?
by Tanada » Tue 10 May 2005, 13:32:57
According to this very optimistic projection from IEA non-OPEC suppliers will increase production this year by 1.8%
Where are they supposed to get it from? From my reading of the latest projections by Chris Skrebowski non OPEC sources are in decline, or did I totally misunderstand his article on depletion from 2 weeks ago?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
- Tanada
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more soothing noises
by Tanada » Wed 11 May 2005, 06:45:38
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... world_news
IEA is again making soothing noises about oil supplies in Q3 and Q4 without ever explaining where that 1.8 mbd increase in non OPEC production is suppossed to come from.
I get the feeling they are either being pressured into false optimism or they have their blinders firmly in place and refuse to look at depletion in non-OPEC oil supplies as a reality.
IEA is again making soothing noises about oil supplies in Q3 and Q4 without ever explaining where that 1.8 mbd increase in non OPEC production is suppossed to come from.
I get the feeling they are either being pressured into false optimism or they have their blinders firmly in place and refuse to look at depletion in non-OPEC oil supplies as a reality.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
- Tanada
- Site Admin
- Posts: 17094
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by nth » Wed 11 May 2005, 13:21:52
Yeah, I replied you on the other post.
1.8% is not same as 1.8 mbpd
There is actually a list of all the projects in the world and their production forecasts for the next few years. These numbers are what I like to say the best case scenario, cuz it barrs disasters and delays. They are very unlikely to revise up, but can revise down easily.
1.8% is not same as 1.8 mbpd
There is actually a list of all the projects in the world and their production forecasts for the next few years. These numbers are what I like to say the best case scenario, cuz it barrs disasters and delays. They are very unlikely to revise up, but can revise down easily.
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by Armageddon » Thu 12 May 2005, 23:33:41
just think if a terror atacks hits a major oil field or an american refinery. 100.00 per barrel could be this year if that happens. and it wouldnt suprise me. if i was a terrorist, that would be the first place i would hit to cripple america. 100.00 per barrel would be devastating to america imo.
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by OilyMon » Fri 13 May 2005, 02:13:31
In a speech Matt Simmons gave to oil industry insiders, he mentioned the horizontal drilling of Gawhar as a possible brick wall for Saudi oil production. If Gawhar suddenly collapses, between 3 million and 5 million barrels/day will be eliminated in a very short time from global production totals, prompting extremely high oil prices. This is, of course, only a small part of the big picture, and other side of the issues should be considered, but any further production gains will need to provide insurance against this inevitability. This could happen in 2 years, 5 years or tomorrow.
I don't think increasing production or maintaining production levels is a solution. Increased conservation, more investment in renewables and an all around greater awareness of energy issues in North America is the only potential mitigator from all out depression and industrial collapse.
I don't expect oil prices to remain below conservatively $50 for the summer. If oil prices continue to rise past $60, I think it will be safe to say that the crisis is upon us. Most economists agree that oil prices that remain above $60 for a month or two, will cause significant damage to the Wester economy. Any organization that wishes to see harm done to America only needs to sit back a watch. America is doing itself harm by not migrating to renewable technology, and mainting that business as usual can go on.
I don't think increasing production or maintaining production levels is a solution. Increased conservation, more investment in renewables and an all around greater awareness of energy issues in North America is the only potential mitigator from all out depression and industrial collapse.
I don't expect oil prices to remain below conservatively $50 for the summer. If oil prices continue to rise past $60, I think it will be safe to say that the crisis is upon us. Most economists agree that oil prices that remain above $60 for a month or two, will cause significant damage to the Wester economy. Any organization that wishes to see harm done to America only needs to sit back a watch. America is doing itself harm by not migrating to renewable technology, and mainting that business as usual can go on.
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by Enquest » Fri 13 May 2005, 08:11:58
I think the extra oil will be bio-oil there are so many project on hand to extract oil from plants that it will stop the effect of peak oil and even make oil again cheaper. Things like http://www.d1plc.com/intro.html will happen
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by nth » Fri 13 May 2005, 12:55:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bas', 'I')'ve become very skeptical of sources like the IEA, those are the exact guys that should have sounded the alarm years ago...they didn't!!
%^&*&** Them!
%^&*&** Them!
Hrm... I am not that familiar with IEA, but I know a lot of angst against the EIA is uncalled for. Especially given the history of EIA, which called for Peak Oil when USGS gave them data that after EIA analysis states PO was going to happen soon!
They did blow the whistle! And they were wrong!
Check USGS estimates on ultimate recoverable oil in 1984, 1987 when the whistle was blown.
Based on EIA forecasts for demand, they predicted we will hit PO!
(On a side note, Exxon predicted $100 oil price by 2000.)
Okay, after EIA was told they were wrong, a change of events happened.
First, USGS became very aggressive with their estimates, so now EIA won't be forecasting PO.
Second, EIA started reporting two different numbers without combining them- demand and supply. Most people here like to quote EIA demand numbers as they seem impossible to meet, but seldom anyone quote EIA supply numbers which are quite accurate for non-opec. As EIA states that demand minus non-opec supply projections equals OPEC supplies, EIA does not project OPEC supply.
Now, on a totally separate report by different authors and analysts, EIA projects OPEC production. If you look at these numbers, you can easily see OPEC is not going to meet EIA's OPEC supply projections. Actually, even Saudi officials have publicly stated they won't be meeting EIA's OPEC supply projections. As of today, I have yet to see anyone claiming OPEC will meet EIA's OPEC supply projection.
The anti PO people are mostly economists and they don't claim OPEC will meet those projections. They just say the rising price of oil will trigger production increases. They show the mechanism, but they don't show where that oil will appear.
Politicians in US and EU are calling for OPEC to open their doors to US and EU oil firms to exploit OPEC resources to make sure OPEC meets EIA's OPEC supply projections. OPEC has said we are open and they point to the offers last few years that ended with failed bids as oil firms are not interested in 8% returns. That is why Saudi's say they are too greedy.
Now, getting back to topic, most people don't believe EIA, but it is not their fault. They are forced to use USGS numbers. They have forecast the demand and they also forecast supplies. Their supply forecasts are pretty accurate. They do note that any shortfall in production will be matched by OPEC not because they think OPEC can matched, but because OPEC said they will meet the needs of the world's demand for oil. Basically, EIA is saying OPEC policy says they will meet demands, so we will just take their words for it. They also noted the dangers of this and have noted that a certain someone disputes Saudi published data.
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