There is an EXTENSIVE influenza news board here at www.CurEvents.com :
CurEvents "Flu Clinic"
Many informative posts there.....
If you wish to pursue this issue in far more detail with lots of like-minded persons, that seems a good place...
I'll post a few of the major stuff here...
Here's an interesting exchange, and I'll post it in its entirety:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')quote author=LMonty911
I dont expect the coming pandemic to "Go Away" like SARS did- yet, i am already hearing that it "will probably fizzle just like SARS" from the few docs I've talked to.
Quote:
I don't think SARS "went away" so much as it was strangled to death by effective communication and serious quarantines (once people got in gear). At one point the affected countries had thermometer checks at all airports, Chinese villagers were blockading roads to their area with pitchforks, and Beijing effectively shut down for a few days after constructing a special purpose hospital just for SARS patients in the span of about 7 days, if I recall correctly. I'll never forget listening to the NPR reporter as I was driving into work:
"I'm in Beijing looking down mainstreet. It looks deserted. I see a policecar... and a hearse."
Sri Lanka enforced mandatory quarantines and everyone in a particular Hong Kong hotel was packed off to a holiday camp.
My feeling is that if something reasonably contagious like SARS (which had the occasional 'super-spreader' as well) could be beaten in high population areas like Hong Kong, then a lethal flu could be handled as well. The only really worrisome part is the multitude of natural resovoirs that H5N1 seems to work with, whereas SARS didn't seem to be partial to small flying critters.
Anyway, if it does make a serious play, don't underestimate the power of communication once it gets into gear. Myself, I'll be paying attention, but my threshold for alarm (as a layperson) is when something is serious enough to close a hospital on my continent. First thing I noticed about SARS was when it took down the Vietnam hospital and it was closed for 'cleaning'
Second thing was when it killed the infectious disease expert WHO sent to study it. Now there's a red flag for you. But, it was beaten back when people got serious about it.
People like to live. Once it hits home that something is a serious threat, it will be dealt with. Would the 1918 pandemic have claimed as many people as it did if the original resurfaced now? The virus gets the bonus of jet-speed travel, but the humans have the advantage of light speed communication. Its a big one. In 1918 you and I wouldn't have a CLUE what was going in Vietnam, or pretty much anywhere else outside of our backyard.
My 2 cents.
PeakOil is You
THE Pandemic Thread (merged)
by OilsNotWell » Mon 09 May 2005, 23:34:23
and the reply:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'g')hostly_poet's inquiry: > Would the 1918 pandemic have claimed as many people as it did if the original resurfaced now?
>The virus gets the bonus of jet-speed travel, but the humans have the advantage of light speed communication. Its a big one. In 1918 you and I wouldn't have a CLUE what was going in Vietnam, or pretty much anywhere else outside of our backyard.
GR's stab at a reply: The feeder lines into the first world are the airlines. If you can swear to me that these are shut down from day one, out of Vietnam, that would stopper the disease for a while, but only a while.
The virus is endemic. It is assumed it will "sprout" in many locale's at the same time. (not at first, but shortly after infection starts) What I know to be true, as we're seeing in Marburg-country, people will flee the virus; every wealthy family will make an effort to leave or send a portion of their family out of the country; if the airline is shut to them into HK, they'll fly to Thailand and wherever, and change planes. They're wealthy, smart, educated, and have a very pressing need to "move". The story in China is not the same story as in the West. We're not autocracies.
It's your premise that people will be frozen in place; that's an assumption with differing recent facts supporting both arguments. As your position is an assumption, it's a matter of where you place your bets. I'll not bet along with you. Your bet has a sudden death show of hands. It will be a hand that will be played without chips, and with your own wits as your betting pot.
Here, many are taking a more conservative position. It's a wait and show me, but meanwhile, I'll review and prepare my options. If they're wrong, they hold Tamiflu or food, or cleaning supplies for a lifetime, or emergency plans.
The recent Contra Costs County, California emergency response rehearsal includes what they believe to be true, different from what you think. They believe that air travel will bring a few people infected into their County (about say 1 million people, on the high side). They expect the flu to spread in two ways: first, the carriers will become sick and their closest relatives will become sick, and some on the airplane will become sick (the studies show between 2 and 8 rows of people, though not all, if exposed for a long time, here about 15 - 20 hours, will get sick). Because the flu is transmitted for 1 to 3 days prior to signs of illness appearing, those who received their loading doses are also transmitters.
But you know all this. The point is that unlike China, where streets are empty, even the thought of quarantine, and using the words of one WHO person, draconian quarantine, may go into effect, but not without time passing and in that time, the disease will spread.
But, to help us all, in June, Nature Magazine will publish the results of the US Government from its computer modelling program on this very topic.
If you'd like to know whether you're on the right track, we've posted here the fact that a participating statistician in that study is now urging that the governments of the world, via WHO, use Tamiflu blankets on every outbreak in Asia, quickly, with all bets off if the virus breaks out in a large city, because he sees the disease unstoppable if it gets out from under those blankets. I tend to go with the statistician on this; his MIDAS study is a bit more costly and complete than yours or mine.
I personally don't think it wise to follow your approach; but as you're informed and an adult, your opinion is 100% valid for you.
As a counter comment, I think it wise for everyone here who's interested to read the many, many posts on pandemic preparation over in the www.curevents.com Flu Clinic newsgroup, a sub-group of The Laboratory. That's the primary theme in that group at this time, summed up as "personal survival and local assistance"
After the Nature report in June, please post your thoughts here at that time, when you've seen some detailed stat's on viral transmission.
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OilsNotWell - Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1202
- Joined: Wed 11 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
by OilsNotWell » Tue 10 May 2005, 00:19:52
Trying to keep things balanced (read: not FREAK people too much), here's some folksy, but good tips:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')2 Tips to Prevent Cold and Flu the "Natural" Way
WebMD Medical Reference
Since there are no known cures for colds and flu, prevention must be your goal. A proactive approach to warding off colds and flu is apt to make your whole life healthier. The most effective way to prevent flu, frankly, is to get the flu shot. It may not be natural, but it works better than anything else. But there are other strategies you can employ as well. WebMD went to Charles B. Inlander, president of The People's Medical Society, for suggestions you may want to try:
#1 Wash Your Hands
Most cold and flu viruses are spread by direct contact. Someone who has the flu sneezes onto their hand, and then touches the telephone, the keyboard, a kitchen glass. The germs can live for hours -- in some cases weeks -- only to be picked up by the next person who touches the same object. So wash your hands often. If no sink is available, rub your hands together very hard for a minute or so. That also helps break up most of the cold germs.
#2 Don't Cover Your Sneezes and Coughs With Your Hands
Because germs and viruses cling to your bare hands, muffling coughs and sneezes with your hands results in passing along your germs to others. When you feel a sneeze or cough coming, use a tissue, then throw it away immediately. If you don't have a tissue, turn your head away from people near you and cough into the air.
^ Back to top
#3 Don't Touch Your Face
Cold and flu viruses enter your body through the eyes, nose, or mouth. Touching their faces is the major way children catch colds, and a key way they pass colds on to their parents.
^ Back to top
#4 Drink Plenty of Fluids
Water flushes your system, washing out the poisons as it rehydrates you. A typical, healthy adult needs eight 8-ounce glasses of fluids each day. How can you tell if you're getting enough liquid? If the color of your urine runs close to clear, you're getting enough. If it's deep yellow, you need more fluids.
^ Back to top
#5 Take a Sauna
Researchers aren't clear about the exact role saunas play in prevention, but one 1989 German study found that people who steamed twice a week got half as many colds as those who didn't. One theory: When you take a sauna you inhale air hotter than 80 degrees, a temperature too hot for cold and flu viruses to survive.
^ Back to top
#6 Get Fresh Air
A regular dose of fresh air is important, especially in cold weather when central heating dries you out and makes your body more vulnerable to cold and flu viruses. Also, during cold weather more people stay indoors, which means more germs are circulating in crowded, dry rooms.
^ Back to top
#7 Do Aerobic Exercise Regularly
Aerobic exercise speeds up the heart to pump larger quantities of blood; makes you breathe faster to help transfer oxygen from your lungs to your blood; and makes you sweat once your body heats up. These exercises help increase the body's natural virus-killing cells.
^ Back to top
#8 Eat Foods Containing Phytochemicals
"Phyto" means plants, and the natural chemicals in plants give the vitamins in food a supercharged boost. So put away the vitamin pill, and eat dark green, red, and yellow vegetables and fruits.
^ Back to top
#9 Eat Yogurt
Some studies have shown that eating a daily cup of low-fat yogurt can reduce your susceptibility to colds by 25 percent. Researchers think the beneficial bacteria in yogurt may stimulate production of immune system substances that fight disease.
^ Back to top
#10 Don't Smoke
Statistics show that heavy smokers get more severe colds and more frequent ones.
Even being around smoke profoundly zaps the immune system. Smoke dries out your nasal passages and paralyzes cilia. These are the delicate hairs that line the mucous membranes in your nose and lungs, and with their wavy movements, sweep cold and flu viruses out of the nasal passages. Experts contend that one cigarette can paralyze cilia for as long as 30 to 40 minutes.
^ Back to top
#11 Cut Alcohol Consumption
Heavy alcohol use destroys the liver, the body's primary filtering system, which means that germs of all kinds won't leave your body as fast. The result is, heavier drinkers are more prone to initial infections as well as secondary complications. Alcohol also dehydrates the body -- it actually takes more fluids from your system than it puts in.
^ Back to top
#12 Relax
If you can teach yourself to relax, you can activate your immune system on demand. There's evidence that when you put your relaxation skills into action, your interleukins -- leaders in the immune system response against cold and flu viruses -- increase in the bloodstream. Train yourself to picture an image you find pleasant or calming. Do this 30 minutes a day for several months. Keep in mind, relaxation is a learnable skill, but it is not doing nothing. People who try to relax, but are in fact bored, show no changes in blood chemicals.
^ Back to top
The People's Medical Society is a nonprofit consumer health advocacy organization. Charles B. Inlander is president, and co-author of 77 Ways to Beat Cold and Flu.
Reviewed by Charlotte E. Grayson, MD, September 2003.
Originally published October 2001.
SOURCE: Charles B. Inlander, president of The People's Medical Society, a nonprofit consumer health advocacy organization, and author of 77 Ways to Beat Cold and Flu.
© 2003 WebMD Inc. All rights reserved.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')2 Tips to Prevent Cold and Flu the "Natural" Way
WebMD Medical Reference
Since there are no known cures for colds and flu, prevention must be your goal. A proactive approach to warding off colds and flu is apt to make your whole life healthier. The most effective way to prevent flu, frankly, is to get the flu shot. It may not be natural, but it works better than anything else. But there are other strategies you can employ as well. WebMD went to Charles B. Inlander, president of The People's Medical Society, for suggestions you may want to try:
#1 Wash Your Hands
Most cold and flu viruses are spread by direct contact. Someone who has the flu sneezes onto their hand, and then touches the telephone, the keyboard, a kitchen glass. The germs can live for hours -- in some cases weeks -- only to be picked up by the next person who touches the same object. So wash your hands often. If no sink is available, rub your hands together very hard for a minute or so. That also helps break up most of the cold germs.
#2 Don't Cover Your Sneezes and Coughs With Your Hands
Because germs and viruses cling to your bare hands, muffling coughs and sneezes with your hands results in passing along your germs to others. When you feel a sneeze or cough coming, use a tissue, then throw it away immediately. If you don't have a tissue, turn your head away from people near you and cough into the air.
^ Back to top
#3 Don't Touch Your Face
Cold and flu viruses enter your body through the eyes, nose, or mouth. Touching their faces is the major way children catch colds, and a key way they pass colds on to their parents.
^ Back to top
#4 Drink Plenty of Fluids
Water flushes your system, washing out the poisons as it rehydrates you. A typical, healthy adult needs eight 8-ounce glasses of fluids each day. How can you tell if you're getting enough liquid? If the color of your urine runs close to clear, you're getting enough. If it's deep yellow, you need more fluids.
^ Back to top
#5 Take a Sauna
Researchers aren't clear about the exact role saunas play in prevention, but one 1989 German study found that people who steamed twice a week got half as many colds as those who didn't. One theory: When you take a sauna you inhale air hotter than 80 degrees, a temperature too hot for cold and flu viruses to survive.
^ Back to top
#6 Get Fresh Air
A regular dose of fresh air is important, especially in cold weather when central heating dries you out and makes your body more vulnerable to cold and flu viruses. Also, during cold weather more people stay indoors, which means more germs are circulating in crowded, dry rooms.
^ Back to top
#7 Do Aerobic Exercise Regularly
Aerobic exercise speeds up the heart to pump larger quantities of blood; makes you breathe faster to help transfer oxygen from your lungs to your blood; and makes you sweat once your body heats up. These exercises help increase the body's natural virus-killing cells.
^ Back to top
#8 Eat Foods Containing Phytochemicals
"Phyto" means plants, and the natural chemicals in plants give the vitamins in food a supercharged boost. So put away the vitamin pill, and eat dark green, red, and yellow vegetables and fruits.
^ Back to top
#9 Eat Yogurt
Some studies have shown that eating a daily cup of low-fat yogurt can reduce your susceptibility to colds by 25 percent. Researchers think the beneficial bacteria in yogurt may stimulate production of immune system substances that fight disease.
^ Back to top
#10 Don't Smoke
Statistics show that heavy smokers get more severe colds and more frequent ones.
Even being around smoke profoundly zaps the immune system. Smoke dries out your nasal passages and paralyzes cilia. These are the delicate hairs that line the mucous membranes in your nose and lungs, and with their wavy movements, sweep cold and flu viruses out of the nasal passages. Experts contend that one cigarette can paralyze cilia for as long as 30 to 40 minutes.
^ Back to top
#11 Cut Alcohol Consumption
Heavy alcohol use destroys the liver, the body's primary filtering system, which means that germs of all kinds won't leave your body as fast. The result is, heavier drinkers are more prone to initial infections as well as secondary complications. Alcohol also dehydrates the body -- it actually takes more fluids from your system than it puts in.
^ Back to top
#12 Relax
If you can teach yourself to relax, you can activate your immune system on demand. There's evidence that when you put your relaxation skills into action, your interleukins -- leaders in the immune system response against cold and flu viruses -- increase in the bloodstream. Train yourself to picture an image you find pleasant or calming. Do this 30 minutes a day for several months. Keep in mind, relaxation is a learnable skill, but it is not doing nothing. People who try to relax, but are in fact bored, show no changes in blood chemicals.
^ Back to top
The People's Medical Society is a nonprofit consumer health advocacy organization. Charles B. Inlander is president, and co-author of 77 Ways to Beat Cold and Flu.
Reviewed by Charlotte E. Grayson, MD, September 2003.
Originally published October 2001.
SOURCE: Charles B. Inlander, president of The People's Medical Society, a nonprofit consumer health advocacy organization, and author of 77 Ways to Beat Cold and Flu.
© 2003 WebMD Inc. All rights reserved.
-
OilsNotWell - Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1202
- Joined: Wed 11 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
by OilsNotWell » Tue 10 May 2005, 00:26:51
This caught my attention:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ommentary
Proof of Human to Human Transmission of Bird Flu in Vietnam
Recombinomics Commentary
April 17, 2005
>> Peter Horby, the WHO medical epidemiologist in Hanoi, said that while the mortality rate from H5N1 infections was falling, the virus appeared to be adapting to human hosts, which was taken to be an indication that transmission between humans would become easier.
"The fact that it's been around for a year and we haven't seen a pandemic is no reason to be complacent," he said.
"I'm more concerned than I was a year ago." He estimated the probability of a pandemic at "more than 50 per cent".
Dr Klaus Stohr, the WHO global influenza programme chief, reported an increase in the number of cluster cases reported recently, with the biggest a family of five cases.
There have been seven cluster cases in Vietnam, all within single families, most recently in the northern province of Haiphong.
No relative has been proved to have passed the disease to another, but Dr Horby said: "The onset dates could be consistent with human to human transmission." <<
The above comments by Peter Horby and Klaus Stohr dance around the human-to-human transmission issue. They cite evidence for more efficient human-to-human transmission, but then try to limit the implications by saying that the proven transmissions are not proven.
The most straightforward proof of human-to-human transmission is bimodal distribution of onset dates. When two people who have contact with each other develop symptoms at different times, the simplest explanation is that the patient who developed symptoms at an earlier date transmitted bird flu to the contact that developed symptoms at a later date.
All of the relevant facts are acknowledged. The number of clusters has increased, as have their size. The relevance of the bimodal distribution is acknowledged by the statement that "onset dates could be consistent with human-to-human transmission".
Use of "could" was appropriate last year, when the number of clusters was smaller. However, now the number of familial clusters has grown to more than double the seven acknowledged above and virtually all have bimodal distributions, which as an aggregate provide overwhelming evidence for human-to-human transmission. It is misleading to continue to use "could". The onset dates in virtually all of the familial clusters PROVE human-to-human transmission.
Moreover, the statement that the cluster cases are all within single families is simply false. The cluster in Thai Binh involving the two nurses extended beyond a single family. The brother, sister and their nurse were all confirmed to be H5N1 positive, and the negative tests on the second nurse remain suspect.
The number of confirmed human cases remains very low, and symptoms in a second nurse in the same hospital as the three confirmed cases raises the suspicion level regarding infection to a high level. Although the nurse tested negative twice, there are no reports on an etiological agent that caused the bird flu symptoms in the second nurse.
When top WHO representatibves define evidence for human-to-human transmission, but fail to acknowledge the existence of human-to-human transmissions proven by the clear evidence, the number of reasons why the monitoring and control of avian influenza in Asia is scandalous, increase.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ommentary
Proof of Human to Human Transmission of Bird Flu in Vietnam
Recombinomics Commentary
April 17, 2005
>> Peter Horby, the WHO medical epidemiologist in Hanoi, said that while the mortality rate from H5N1 infections was falling, the virus appeared to be adapting to human hosts, which was taken to be an indication that transmission between humans would become easier.
"The fact that it's been around for a year and we haven't seen a pandemic is no reason to be complacent," he said.
"I'm more concerned than I was a year ago." He estimated the probability of a pandemic at "more than 50 per cent".
Dr Klaus Stohr, the WHO global influenza programme chief, reported an increase in the number of cluster cases reported recently, with the biggest a family of five cases.
There have been seven cluster cases in Vietnam, all within single families, most recently in the northern province of Haiphong.
No relative has been proved to have passed the disease to another, but Dr Horby said: "The onset dates could be consistent with human to human transmission." <<
The above comments by Peter Horby and Klaus Stohr dance around the human-to-human transmission issue. They cite evidence for more efficient human-to-human transmission, but then try to limit the implications by saying that the proven transmissions are not proven.
The most straightforward proof of human-to-human transmission is bimodal distribution of onset dates. When two people who have contact with each other develop symptoms at different times, the simplest explanation is that the patient who developed symptoms at an earlier date transmitted bird flu to the contact that developed symptoms at a later date.
All of the relevant facts are acknowledged. The number of clusters has increased, as have their size. The relevance of the bimodal distribution is acknowledged by the statement that "onset dates could be consistent with human-to-human transmission".
Use of "could" was appropriate last year, when the number of clusters was smaller. However, now the number of familial clusters has grown to more than double the seven acknowledged above and virtually all have bimodal distributions, which as an aggregate provide overwhelming evidence for human-to-human transmission. It is misleading to continue to use "could". The onset dates in virtually all of the familial clusters PROVE human-to-human transmission.
Moreover, the statement that the cluster cases are all within single families is simply false. The cluster in Thai Binh involving the two nurses extended beyond a single family. The brother, sister and their nurse were all confirmed to be H5N1 positive, and the negative tests on the second nurse remain suspect.
The number of confirmed human cases remains very low, and symptoms in a second nurse in the same hospital as the three confirmed cases raises the suspicion level regarding infection to a high level. Although the nurse tested negative twice, there are no reports on an etiological agent that caused the bird flu symptoms in the second nurse.
When top WHO representatibves define evidence for human-to-human transmission, but fail to acknowledge the existence of human-to-human transmissions proven by the clear evidence, the number of reasons why the monitoring and control of avian influenza in Asia is scandalous, increase.
-
OilsNotWell - Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1202
- Joined: Wed 11 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
