[efarmer]

The numerical peak as a fixed number is a bragging rights thing for people who are willing to take their best analysis or guess and throw their sharpest dart for a bullseye, Tami.

Eastbay makes the real case in my opinion, and that is, look at the lengths we are going to for more expensive liquid fuels, and I would add, look at how worthless a large amount of our installed infrastructure is without them reliably present and at price levels supported by prevailing wages.

Joe Average won't know if the traffic jams are abating because the fuel is expensive or the other people aren't employed anymore. For him the exploit of cheap petroleum that made his universe possible will still remain about as mysterious as it was in the first place and won't be of interest when it proves unable to sustain that comfy universe. Joe is going to see the value drop on what he has and go up on what he needs.

Our American system is largely a bet on cheap petroleum with recent notion we could replace it with another energy source, which at this point is not viable, and until it becomes viable, the value of what we have is based on the price point of petroleum.

[Tami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')Peak Oil is like a slow poison, it doesn't have to do anything right away in order to eventually end your way of life. As Kunstler calls it, it's The Long Emergency.

[eastbay]

Thanks efarmer.

A wise old man once said, 'drunks do not temper the pace of their drinking until they pour the last drop of booze down their throats'.

I might add that for most drunks, the second half of a bottle generally goes much faster then the first half.

Yes, as we stagger around in our stupor, all appears quite normal ... until we discover 2am has arrived.

[Tami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', '
')It seems to me that peak oil has to actually DO something that Joe Average might notice, before it can be wheeled out as an honest boogie man.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', 'C')atchy title. But the guy writes fiction.

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', 'y')ada yada

[americandream]

Hahahaha. Good old shorts.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', 'y')ada yada

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', 'y')ada yada

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', 'y')ada yada

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', 'y')ada yada

[americandream]

I cannot for the life of me fathom out why the existence of a group that is going counter to the expoenential growth curve offends you? Someone has to remind you that you cannot party it up on the world's resources like they are going out of fashion, without consequences.

Whether you choose to take heed of the warning is entirely up to you. But there is no way under the sun that this planet can support global scale throwaway obsolescence and it is evident that the early symptoms of shortage are surfacing.

Why would BOP have risked the long term goodwill of the company in plumbing unprecedented depths were oil more reaqdily available? Have you any idea the damage done to BP, it's stockholders, management and infrastructure in its charting new depths in exploration? Whats remarkable is that other oil explorers are proceeding on inspite of BP's damaging blow. What does this tell you when healthy companies enter onto terrain that is fatally risky and about the question of long term reserve status?

Sure, they may open up a new zone of global reserve replenishment. Thats a reasonable assumption. However, with each passing phase in the oil industry, the costs of building reserves are becoming increasingly akin to Russian roulette

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'T')he simple fact that the Deepwater Horizon exists al all is extraordinarily powerful evidence demonstrating for all to clearly see the increasingly harsh reality of our deepening desperate quest for liquid energy.

In other words, we're now spending seemingly endless billions of dollars in our effort to pick the remains of the increasingly scarce high hanging fruit.

[americandream]

If its shorts, no doubt about it. The guys a few bricks shy of a full load.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', 'y')ada yada

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')f its shorts, no doubt about it. The guys a few bricks shy of a full load.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', 'y')ada yada

[lper100km]

Peak oil is a geo physical attribute. Oil price is an economic consequence related only to the availability and demand – plus a little trading on the side.

It is assumed that a high oil price will signal the onset and aftermath of peak oil. That may well happen. But it will only happen if the demand can not be satisfied at the moment of peak oil. It is also a possibility that the price of oil remains in a stable range for a long time as adverse overlying economic factors cause demand reduction over a long period of time, keeping the production supply and demand in reasonable balance. It seems to me that this is where we are at the moment – a gradual slowing of the world economy. Whichever occurs, oil will still be removed relentlessly from reserves until the point is reached where there is no possibility of supply and demand equality. This is the insidious nature of the issue. The market price of oil is not a reliable forecaster or interpreter of it’s state until it’s too late to do anything about it. The crisis does not have to occur at peak oil. It can occur well down the production decline curve. A growth economy will only hasten the end of oil and we all fall off the cliff. Paradoxically a poor economy will extend it’s availability but no one will really notice the danger until we fall off the same cliff, albeit a few years later. Either way, the cliff is there, waiting. (I hereby retain all book and movie rights to the story line and titles ‘The Cliff’ or ’The Cliff Awaits’ et al)

[americandream]

Thanks for that. Clearly, the market is an unsatisfactory measure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lper100km', 'P')eak oil is a geo physical attribute. Oil price is an economic consequence related only to the availability and demand – plus a little trading on the side.

It is assumed that a high oil price will signal the onset and aftermath of peak oil. That may well happen. But it will only happen if the demand can not be satisfied at the moment of peak oil. It is also a possibility that the price of oil remains in a stable range for a long time as adverse overlying economic factors cause demand reduction over a long period of time, keeping the production supply and demand in reasonable balance. It seems to me that this is where we are at the moment – a gradual slowing of the world economy. Whichever occurs, oil will still be removed relentlessly from reserves until the point is reached where there is no possibility of supply and demand equality. This is the insidious nature of the issue. The market price of oil is not a reliable forecaster or interpreter of it’s state until it’s too late to do anything about it. The crisis does not have to occur at peak oil. It can occur well down the production decline curve. A growth economy will only hasten the end of oil and we all fall off the cliff. Paradoxically a poor economy will extend it’s availability but no one will really notice the danger until we fall off the same cliff, albeit a few years later. Either way, the cliff is there, waiting. (I hereby retain all book and movie rights to the story line and titles ‘The Cliff’ or ’The Cliff Awaits’ et al)

[sparky]

.
A brief summary

Oil price hit stratospheric levels and the whole house of cards collapsed
there is no problems

in the midst of a deep recession oil is at a very high average price
there is no problems

natural depletion is coupled with increasing domestic demand of the producing states
there is no problems

the techs are looking for new field miles offshore , miles under water , miles under rocks
there is no problems

there is no peak oil
there is no problems

It make ostriches seems clear headed


.