[Graeme]

Has peak oil theory passed its peak?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')pinions vary as to when oil production will peak. But a series of big finds, along with increased efficiency following the recession, may buy us some time. Simon Wilson investigates.

Do we face an energy crunch?

YES

• Oil companies and Opec have been overstating their reserves for years, according to some peak oil analysts.

• The Deepwater Horizon disaster will inflate the costs and risks of offshore drilling, decimating oil exploration (just as the Three Mile Island accident put back the nuclear industry by 30 years).

• Developing world demand is set to explode: much of Asia, Latin America and the Middle East are on the cusp of the $3,000-$4,000 income bracket – the point where demand for energy surges.

NO

• The world's proven oil reserves have doubled roughly every 15 years since 1850, and we now have more than ever before – over 1.4 trillion barrels.

• High prices will continue to drive new technologies and oil discoveries, while the surge in liquefied natural gas and shale gas will take some of the heat off oil.

• Slower economic growth in rich countries has moderated demand in the past, and is likely to do so now.

[ian807]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'â')€¢ High prices will continue to drive new technologies and oil discoveries, while the surge in liquefied natural gas and shale gas will take some of the heat off oil.

[tubaplayer]

Yeah right

Have you seen the production figures for BPs Thunderhorse field. It is falling off a cliff already. They will be lucky to get 15% of what they originally claimed out of it.

AND for the umpteenth time it is NOT about reserves - it is all about how fast we can pump it out of the ground. It doesn't matter a tiny bit if there are ten thousand trillian barrels of reserves. If we cannot pump it at more than 85 MILLION barrels a day it is game over.

[Tami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')es indeedy. Those worry-wart Malthusists are sooo wrong.

[Tami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tubaplayer', '
')AND for the umpteenth time it is NOT about reserves - it is all about how fast we can pump it out of the ground. It doesn't matter a tiny bit if there are ten thousand trillian barrels of reserves. If we cannot pump it at more than 85 MILLION barrels a day it is game over.

[americandream]

For those with the attention span of a gnat, the peak oil issue will certainly have faded by now or be in the process of so doing.

However no amount of denial alters the fact that aren't enough resources on this planet to meet the ever growing demands of an open consumerist system (and you haven't as yet come back with an example of a closed self-replenishing consumerist cycle yet, Graeme. This delay convinces me that you are seriously mentally blocked so deep is your indoctrination).

Any thoughts of mining the stars also fail to take account of the fact that the planet's orbit can only cope with so much fuelling debris before we are completely enclosed by an asteroid belt of our own making.

We are here for the duration on a finitely resourced rock and we had better get used to that idea...SOON.

[americandream]

Tami's attitude is symptomatic of the malaise that has overwhelmed us in out inability at making our books balance, as a society. They just don't want to be told that one should not live beyond his or her means then wail for socialised relief when they are broke.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tubaplayer', '
')AND for the umpteenth time it is NOT about reserves - it is all about how fast we can pump it out of the ground. It doesn't matter a tiny bit if there are ten thousand trillian barrels of reserves. If we cannot pump it at more than 85 MILLION barrels a day it is game over.

[MD]

YES

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'â')€¢ Oil companies and Opec have been overstating their reserves for years, according to some peak oil analysts

[lper100km]

First of all, Peak Oil is a definition, not a theory. In a closed environment, it is the mid point of the recoverable, finite reserves.

Any ‘theory’ is merely speculation about the size and recoverability of reserves, and the consumption rate. Such speculation does not in any way alter the definition of Peak Oil or the inevitability of eventual decline in reserves and production. It will have some impact on when the Peak is thought to occur, but not the fact of it.

Oil pricing is responsive to the supply and demand and to trading trends and irregularities.

Since there is much unknown about the actual amount of oil reserves, there is too much speculation about when PO will occur, is occurring or has occurred. This morphs into a theory about when it will happen and when it doesn’t seem to be happening, eventually questions arise whether PO is real. By definition, PO is real. One day, presumably in hindsight, it will become painfully obvious that it is real and the great games of ‘I told you so’ and ‘How could it have been prevented’ and the even greater game of ‘taking steps to ensure it will never happen again’ will begin.

I’m somewhat amazed that this powerfully simple concept has not been applied to the world’s other finite resources that are being consumed. Granted, unlike oil, many are recyclable to some degree and this varies the formula, but not the inevitability. Even nominally self sustainable resources, such as fisheries, have their peak if consumption, disease, pollution outstrips stock replenishment, since they are then a finite and declining quantity.

Anything we use on this earth has been derived, either directly or through intermediate processes from raw resources that are essentially finite. One day, we will visit the global supermarket only to find the shelves are bare.

The article title and concept is nonsensical.

[efarmer]

Folks with short attention spans are fed long term challenges and issues by allowing them to reach the edge of chaos and then jamming smaller chunks of crisis in their mouths.

[Tami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', '
')What is so special about 85 million barrels a day? Is it a magic number of oil production, or just the one most associated with peak, or plateau?

[americandream]

It's a threshold against which to measure oil's availability. To the extent that it has any use, it is a reasonable and contemporary profile of the world's energy use at a point of expansion (with China and India increasingly extending the frontiers of the American style of consumption). Were this figure to be consistently breached and then outperformed indefinitely along with an exponentially expanding global economy, then we can rest assured that oil is abiotic and that the little folks down below are producing a sufficient volume to meet our ever expanding consumerist lifestyle. If however, it were to consolidate on a plateau and/or fall, then we are being prudent and taking note.

The alternative is too all adjourn down the local bar and to hell with such reasonable activities such as keeping inventory.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', '
')What is so special about 85 million barrels a day? Is it a magic number of oil production, or just the one most associated with peak, or plateau?

[eastbay]

The simple fact that the Deepwater Horizon exists al all is extraordinarily powerful evidence demonstrating for all to clearly see the increasingly harsh reality of our deepening desperate quest for liquid energy.

In other words, we're now spending seemingly endless billions of dollars in our effort to pick the remains of the increasingly scarce high hanging fruit.

[Tami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'T')he simple fact that the Deepwater Horizon exists al all is extraordinarily powerful evidence demonstrating for all to clearly see the increasingly harsh reality of our deepening desperate quest for liquid energy.

In other words, we're now spending seemingly endless billions of dollars in our effort to pick the remains of the increasingly scarce high hanging fruit.

[americandream]

Wheel it out when it's too late and we might as well close our stable doors (those of us who own horses) after the horse has bolted. We know that continued expansion of American style consumerism across the globe is a disaster waiting to happen. Monitoring its lifeblood, oil, in a bid to warn as many as will listen is rather appropriate I venture. The fact that the effects of peak oil are not immediately evident to the man in the passenger seat on Clapham omnibus does not detract from the fact that it is becoming clearer to the driver and thats a start.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'T')he simple fact that the Deepwater Horizon exists al all is extraordinarily powerful evidence demonstrating for all to clearly see the increasingly harsh reality of our deepening desperate quest for liquid energy.

In other words, we're now spending seemingly endless billions of dollars in our effort to pick the remains of the increasingly scarce high hanging fruit.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', 'I')t would seem to me that deepening desperation causes something much worse than $75/bbl? And if the desperation was deepening, we would see other effects, like FINALLY the traffic jams would start to thin out a little?

It seems to me that peak oil has to actually DO something that Joe Average might notice, before it can be wheeled out as an honest boogie man.