[phaster]

Ever hear the expression "military-industrial complex?" It was a warning that president eisenhower gave the nation about what he described as a threat to democratic government.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y06NSBBRtY

Sadly I am convinced a bigger problem than "peak oil" (if nothing is done) is that the US "democratic" government will cease to exist because the "political-legal welfare system" will economically implode!

Or said another way, the US economic/political system will fail because social welfare programs like social security, medicare, public employ pensions and healthcare are unsustainable!

thoughts???

[Herr Meier]

Two weeks ago a mother visited who's child is in the same school as my daughter. After a bit of idle talk she started complaining that the $500 monthly food stamps she gets is not enough to feed the family and because of that she is forced to work 4 hours/day 3 days per week.

LOL, don't you love the welfare system? If no good for anything else, at least it's good for a laugh.

[GHung]

phaster said: "Or said another way, the US economic/political system will fail because social welfare programs like social security, medicare, ".

Uh.... these socalled "welfare programs" are programs that Americans paid into their entire working lives, not "welfare". Social Security and Medicare are social contracts that are required by law; not voluntary for the vast majority of working Americans. And, yes, I want those contracts to be honored. That said, we've been warned about 'unfunded liabilities' for years (See Kotlikoff/Burns - "The Coming Generational Storm" - 2005)

So-called 'welfare" programs are in a different category. SNAP ('food stamps') is not only assistance for low income families, but a huge subsidy for the agricultural sector and food distributors. Think Cargill, Monsanto and General Mills want to see this program curtailed or ended?
Having said all of this, of course these programs are reaching their limits to sustainability; goes to the whole 'limits to growth' thingy since they all require infinite growth to continue. Mathematically impossible. Singling out what you call "welfare" is silly when viewed in the context of a much bigger picture of our long list of predicaments.

Too many claims on too few resources. Big reset, dead ahead. That's why I don't take expensive fishing trips, golf vacations, etc.; putting my eggs in the self-sufficiency basket. I'm not 'entitled' to anything; not really. Best get right with that concept and adjust expectations accordingly.

[phaster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;welfare" defined:

the health, happiness, and fortunes of a person or group.

[KrellEnergySource]

But the "living-wage job out there for everyone willing to work" system has also already crashed. Such jobs don't exist. And creating market after market for goods and services isn't sustainable in the long term or the near term. So.....what's the social-economic system that we will create that will be closer to sustainable, or is this the last hurrah?


Brian

[Henriksson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('phaster', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;welfare" defined:

the health, happiness, and fortunes of a person or group.

[Pops]

GHung addressed the public insurance programs soc sec & medicare, here is some on who's getting welfare:

Americans pay about 10¢ a day for SNAP - $36 a year - and $6 for all the other social programs. The average American taxpayer pays $6,000 /yr for corporate welfare.

Lets not forget the 3 biggest tax giveaways, they add up to about $1.2 trillion (close to twice the current budget deficit):

employer provided health insurance deduction
Mortgage interest deduction
401k exclusion

But hey, doesn't have the visceral effect of "Welfare Queen" does it? Not gonna sell any Preparation H on talk radio with stats like that. Better for Rush to stick to "sluts" wanting free birth control.

[phaster]

pops, etc...

some of those those polices ya mentioned were indeed pointed out as being "craze" by six economist (from all over the political spectrum)

the fact is the "political-legal welfare system" in entrenched in place, producing nothing but gridlock and consuming resources as the clock winds down.

therefore I suggest other problems like finding solutions to peak oil, and having a more equitable and sustainable economy are not being addressed!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ix Policies Economists Love (And Politicians Hate)

One: Eliminate the mortgage tax deduction, which lets homeowners deduct the interest they pay on their mortgages. Gone. After all, big houses get bigger tax breaks, driving up prices for everyone. Why distort the housing market and subsidize people buying expensive houses?

Two: End the tax deduction companies get for providing health-care to employees. Neither employees nor employers pay taxes on workplace health insurance benefits. That encourages fancier insurance coverage, driving up usage and, therefore, health costs overall. Eliminating the deduction will drive up costs for people with workplace healthcare, but makes the health-care market fairer.

Three: Eliminate the corporate income tax. Completely. If companies reinvest the money into their businesses, that's good. Don't tax companies in an effort to tax rich people.

Four: Eliminate all income and payroll taxes. All of them. For everyone. Taxes discourage whatever you're taxing, but we like income, so why tax it? Payroll taxes discourage creating jobs. Not such a good idea. Instead, impose a consumption tax, designed to be progressive to protect lower-income households.

Five: Tax carbon emissions. Yes, that means higher gasoline prices. It's a kind of consumption tax, and can be structured to make sure it doesn't disproportionately harm lower-income Americans. More, it's taxing something that's bad, which gives people an incentive to stop polluting.

Six: Legalize marijuana. Stop spending so much trying to put pot users and dealers in jail — it costs a lot of money to catch them, prosecute them, and then put them up in jail. Criminalizing drugs also drives drug prices up, making gang leaders rich.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('phaster', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ix Policies Economists Love (And Politicians Hate)

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('phaster', 't')herefore I suggest other problems like finding solutions to peak oil, and having a more equitable and sustainable economy are not being addressed!

[basil_hayden]

That's right Pops, as you know the US of A has the best government money can buy.

[Pops]

Unfortunately it is the best I can afford, how 'bout you?

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'U')nfortunately it is the best I can afford, how 'bout you?

[americandream]

A lot less government is coming. You are enjoying the last days of a system (socialised capitalism) that was designed to keep you contented and fed whilst the Cold War was ongoing (to stop you jumping ship).

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'U')nfortunately it is the best I can afford, how 'bout you?

[americandream]

@ Pops

And how do we know what we "like" if not for surrounding social relations. The government does not exist in a vacuum, but like the society at large, merely reflects the forces brought forth by said social relations.

Capitalism with its mores of work and ethics brings forth many contradictions, one of them being that which we see in wealthy as well as working class notions of entitlement and which many rightly find repugnant. These tendencies are not going to disappear no matter how much we tweak the system.

[Pops]

Americans are getting pretty low on social relations. We go to church less (much less than we say we do) we don't go to organized clubs anymore (except Rotary and other such "sales leads" type groups) theater, live music; even malls, the last vestige of the town square are [dying]. We are sorting out geographically, becoming ever more isolated from actual people because we can say whatever we like on "social media" (says the guy with 14,000 posts, lol).

No surprise that socialism is a dirty word and taxes are a burden and the guy on the radio is the only voice we listen to.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')mericans are getting pretty low on social relations. We go to church less (much less than we say we do) we don't go to organized clubs anymore (except Rotary and other such "sales leads" type groups) theater, live music; even malls, the last vestige of the town square are dieing. We are sorting out geographically, becoming ever more isolated from actual people because we can say whatever we like on "social media" (says the guy with 14,000 posts, lol).

No surprise that socialism is a dirty word and taxes are a burden and the guy on the radio is the only voice we listen to.

[phaster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Henriksson', '
')Yes, the problem is economics. The current economic system is called capitalism, and it is dependent on economic growth to function (and welfare is dependent on capitalism). Since that will become no longer viable in the face of resource scarcity, of which peak oil is one part, the economic system will inevitably crash - it's really nothing one can prevent.

Working within the system there are two broad options. One is austerity; not only are a lot of people screwed and the possibilities for transitioning is a lot more constrained, but it screws growth over too and brings down the system even faster. The other is something like keynesianism; it could just be another attempt to keep a terminal patient on life-support, but it could also be a Manhattan Project-like attempt to transition to a scarcer world.