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Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 31 Mar 2005, 02:57:38

For those of you who have not been following my blogs, I thought his one might tickle you. Courtesy of the Einsteins at ar15.com


Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Today, I have put together a blog that is the cumulative utterances of a group of people who just don’t quite get it as yet. The only editing I have done is for spelling and pronouns; otherwise, it is unaltered.

I think the whole “Peak Oilâ€
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Unread postby j_bumble » Thu 31 Mar 2005, 03:27:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')hatever grows in considerable bulk in a short time is ideal. The rest is organic chemistry.

Ah yes, organic chemistry, the simplest of sciences-- think he'd explain it to me?
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Unread postby Doly » Thu 31 Mar 2005, 06:31:53

Actually, chemistry required for biodiesel isn't that complex. Several vegetable oils work fine on diesel motors today.

The bulk is a trickier issue. Do we have the land to cultivate enough biodiesel?
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Unread postby Trab » Thu 31 Mar 2005, 08:58:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')he bulk is a trickier issue. Do we have the land to cultivate enough biodiesel?


Sure, assuming you don't mind not eating. 8)
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EXPERTS NONE THE FLIPPIN WISER

Unread postby GD » Thu 31 Mar 2005, 09:30:05

Google search on "high oil prices":

http://iht.com/articles/2005/03/15/business/oil.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')
"The numbers speak for themselves, but it's up to the market to interpret them," said Vincent Delisle, a strategist at Scotia Capital in Montreal. "Any time anyone says we're in a new era of oil prices, I feel the need to remind them that oil is a commodity and commodity prices are cyclical. We're in a mania environment for anything related to oil that lacks fundamental reasoning."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')We are in the mode where the fundamentals of supply and demand really don't drive the price," Lee Raymond, the chairman and chief executive of Exxon Mobil, the world's largest energy company, said at a meeting last week with analysts in New York. "Oil is a commodity, and history tells us that commodity prices never stay high forever."

Sweet. It's a commodity. It's cyclical... Time to stop worrying then.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The higher oil prices go, the closer we get to bursting the bubble," Gheit said. "At some point, the circuit breaker will kick in, and the price will come down. I would not be surprised to see oil come back to $30."

Ahh...
The circuit breakers must have packed up!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t may take a while for supplies to catch up. The Saudis are expected to quadruple drilling, to 60 rigs, but that is not expected to lead to marked production increases for about three years, said David Pursell, a principal at Pickering Energy Partners, an energy investment firm in Houston.

More drilling! All our problems solved! :roll:
We have no Plan B. Haven't we? Discuss!
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Unread postby FatherOfTwo » Thu 31 Mar 2005, 15:32:13

If those statements weren’t so sad, scary and pathetic they’d be hilarious.
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Unread postby oowolf » Thu 31 Mar 2005, 16:29:43

Is this statement generally indicative of the Indy-car mindset?
Anyone know of a finer definition of "clueless"?
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Unread postby Ayoob_Reloaded » Sun 03 Apr 2005, 17:33:21

The hits keep on coming. That thread's up to 15 pages, and it seems that Peak_Oil has called out the board to a live debate. Developing...
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Unread postby khebab » Sun 03 Apr 2005, 17:55:11

This article sums up well what a lot of smart people are thinking when they have their first contact with PO: denial. Technology will solve all our problems, our science is powerful. People have some much difficulty in understanding that our civilization is vulnerable because dependent on key finite ressources.They think that we will always produce enough ingenuity to face new challenges regardless of how diffcult the challenge is. The problem is that producing enough ingenuity requires a lot of energy, time and social stability which are running out. I'm actually reading a excellent book on that particular topic: "The Ingenuity Gap" by Thomas Homer-Dixon (The Ingenuity Gap):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')an we solve the problems of the future? Thomas Homer-Dixon tackles this question in a groundbreaking study of a world becoming too complex and too fast-paced to manage.

The challenges we face converge, intertwine, and often remain largely beyond our understanding. Most of us suspect that the "experts" don't really know what's going on and that as a species we've released forces that are neither managed nor manageable. This is the ingenuity gap, the critical gap between our need for ideas to solve complex problems and our actual supply of those ideas.

Poor countries are particularly vulnerable to ingenuity gaps, but our own rich countries are no longer immune, and we're all caught dangerously between a soaring requirement for ingenuity and an increasingly uncertain supply. As the gap widens, the result can be political disintegration and violent upheaval.

With riveting anecdotes and lucid argument, Thomas Homer-Dixon uses his ingenuity theory to suggest how we might approach these problems -- in our own lives, our thinking, our businesses, and our societies.


I strongly recommend that book.
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Unread postby k_semler » Sun 03 Apr 2005, 21:57:34

I can sum it up with just these brief descriptions of all of the points:

1. We can use the "Last Man Standing" policy to ensure our supply.
2. We should drill more.
3. Undying faith in technology and human ingenutity as our saviour.

No new arguments here that have not been refuted before.
Here Lies the United States Of America.

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Epitaph: "The Experiment Is Over."

Rest In Peace.

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Unread postby Free » Tue 05 Apr 2005, 01:31:50

The really weird thing is the attitude "something will come along"....

Isn't this totally the opposite of a normal reaction of people to a problem?

If I am out in the desert with a car, and my gas is almost empty, wouldn't I say, oh I have to find a petrol station, and if I dont find one I have to have a backup plan because otherwise I am in big shit. I wouldn't say: "Don't worry something will come along..."

Weird, how in this matter people are so irrational.... I think it's just secret fear.
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Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 08:24:48

Peak Oil hasn't been the doom I was expecting, in fact all things considered things are at least on the surface, not that bad after eleven years.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 08:39:44

Great. Someone else has joined the "It's not that bad" club. :)
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 08:47:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'G')reat. Someone else has joined the "It's not that bad" club. :)


Well in 2005 I bought into the Seneca cliff theory and I thought it was all fast crash. That absolutely did not happen and Aaron used to tell us it might not. He used to say we would muddle through, we could use his voice around here now.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 11:22:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'P')eak Oil hasn't been the doom I was expecting, in fact all things considered things are at least on the surface, not that bad after eleven years.


It's possible that this is experienced by members of the middle class, although some may have already lost jobs, houses, investments, etc., due to peak oil coupled with chronic financial crises.

However, the global middle class makes up only a fraction of the world's population. Most people still earn less than $10 a day, with many earning around $3 daily. This very likely does not allow them to access one or more basic needs.

Finally, they may have been experiencing such conditions for decades.
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Re: Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 14:12:22

First, "doom" can mean anything and thus it's meaningless. IOW one can't say 'doom" has arrived or not since it can't be qualified let alond quantified. Second, there's the relativity factor: "doom" for whom? For the thousands of US military killed, the tens of thousands wounded, the hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties and the $TRILLIONS of tax dollars pissed away...well that might smell rather doomerish to some folks. LOL. And since the Rockman didn't get his legs blown off by an IED, none of his relatives weren't collateral damage and even after paying taxes he still had a nice net income he didn't suffer any doom. Then again all those college grads with a collective tuition debt of $1 TRILLION with limited job possibilities might have a touch of the doom flu. There are a great many who got hit right between the eyes by the POD generated "doom". And that count goes up daily on the other side of the energy fence as the oil patch is definitely slipping into the doom universe as the POD delivers the all to predictable low oil prices.

One man's ''doom": is another man's good times. Until there's the evitable role reversal. Which will be followed eventually by another role reversal. Etc., etc., etc.
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Re: Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 14:53:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')
One man's ''doom": is another man's good times. Until there's the evitable role reversal. Which will be followed eventually by another role reversal. Etc., etc., etc.


To be a bit less anthrocentric doom for humans during the contraction of our overshot population means good times for countless species of flora and fauna that begin to recolonize former habitat.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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Re: Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 15:57:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'F')irst, "doom" can mean anything and thus it's meaningless. IOW one can't say 'doom" has arrived or not since it can't be qualified let alond quantified. Second, there's the relativity factor: "doom" for whom? For the thousands of US military killed, the tens of thousands wounded, the hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties and the $TRILLIONS of tax dollars pissed away...well that might smell rather doomerish to some folks. LOL. And since the Rockman didn't get his legs blown off by an IED, none of his relatives weren't collateral damage and even after paying taxes he still had a nice net income he didn't suffer any doom. Then again all those college grads with a collective tuition debt of $1 TRILLION with limited job possibilities might have a touch of the doom flu. There are a great many who got hit right between the eyes by the POD generated "doom". And that count goes up daily on the other side of the energy fence as the oil patch is definitely slipping into the doom universe as the POD delivers the all to predictable low oil prices.

One man's ''doom": is another man's good times. Until there's the evitable role reversal. Which will be followed eventually by another role reversal. Etc., etc., etc.


I didn't say times were great, just that they were not as filled with doom as I expected when I first found this place. Things have not been all peaches and cream, but I still have my life, a wife who loves me and a home to call my own. When this places was doom 24/7/365 I was convinced I would be pushing daisies by now along with my family.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Unread postby peripato » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 17:04:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'P')eak Oil hasn't been the doom I was expecting, in fact all things considered things are at least on the surface, not that bad after eleven years.

Yes, it's been "nice" for us, but at the expense of throwing all future generations under the bus.
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Re: Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Unread postby peripato » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 17:07:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'G')reat. Someone else has joined the "It's not that bad" club. :)


Well in 2005 I bought into the Seneca cliff theory and I thought it was all fast crash. That absolutely did not happen and Aaron used to tell us it might not. He used to say we would muddle through, we could use his voice around here now.

Yes, only because the economic system is still intact, we've poured trillions into keeping BAU alive for one more day and so far, it's worked. But as I said, only at the expense of all other generations to come and the other species.
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