[AirlinePilot]

Please participate in this new poll, self explanatory. I'd appreciate it. Pick the closest one please and be honest.

[TheDude]

"Non Doomer" for me, but more like between that and "Cornucopian" as you define it; I'm not in denial that technology makes progress and can have an impact on overall demand. It's more that I believe BAU can carry on for quite a while, even with ever declining oil supplies; in the longest run of over a century things will definitely be going down the crapper, barring our being uploaded into a singular Carlhole or finding the means to migrate into space.

Perhaps it's conceivable that we could evolve into a species that isn't fixated on multiplying itself exponentially, too, but I seriously have doubts about that; bringing up the rest of the world to the developed economies' level of energy per capita so they can live middle class lives of stable population growth is unlikely too it seems, lack of the energy to carry it out (barring some absolutely crazy buildups in nuclear) and attendant complete trashing of the planet, as opposed to the mere trashing we've done to date.

What am I missing in TAD's poll? Haven't bothered to look yet. "TADpoll," heh heh.

[AAA]

Are you guys getting that bored with peak oil that you start creating redundant polls?

This is the second poll with these types of selections.

[Bas]

Non doomer for me too, though I see all the other options as perfectly possible, this is the likeliest outcome IMO.

[AirlinePilot]

AD's poll includes something about wanting or not wanting BAU and too few categories.

IMHO that makes it a bad poll. We probably should have s separate poll for the BAu part.

[dinopello]

What is "standard of living" and how is it measured ? To me, this is often a metric that measures consumption (how many cars you have, how big your house is etc). I prefer "quality of life" indicators.

I'd either be a peaker or non-doomer I think in this poll. Standard of Living (SOL) will decline, Quality of Life (QOL) could get better.

[AirlinePilot]

I'd say that standard of living means things like, Income level, disposable income, amount of leisure/work time, per ca pita dwelling space. That sort of thing.

Quality of life is subjective, SOL living can be measured quantitatively.

[Carlhole]

I think the National Ignition Facility is going to achieve net gain from fusion this year and provide a much needed research data. A prototype design for a hybrid fusion-fission reactor will be developed quickly afterwards.

[Newfie]

I think the poll would be improved is a time frame were indicated. Within 5 years, within 30 years whatever.

I'm a Peaker, I just don't see this thing unwinding in an orderly manner. Our whole Western culture has been set up based upon steady growth, no one in the public sector is talking anything different.

Decline will come as a rude awakening for which we are not prepared. It is hubris to think we can negotiate such a change without radical effects.

2¢

[TheDude]

I think fusion research in general will just spin its tires in the mud for another 50 years. We need to stay focused on what's really important, which of course is my victory in these online arguments.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onstruction began in 1997 but was fraught with problems and ran into a series of delays that greatly slowed progress into the early 2000s. Progress since then has been much smoother, but compared to initial estimates, NIF is five years behind schedule and almost four times more expensive than budgeted.

[dorlomin]

I am a peaker. There are a huge amount of efficiencies that can be squeezed from our current system of transport and energy generation. But the current economic model will not be sustainable for too much longer.

But I am far too naturaly optomistic too be a doomer.

[Ludi]

I don't fit your categories. I consider myself a MegaDoomer, but I think Mad Max is fictional. I think collapse will be fast in historic terms but slow in individual lifetime terms. I don't expect to survive it by any means. I don't see how die-off can be avoided, realistically.

[Tanada]

I picked non-doomer because I am a little closer to that than Peaker, but it is pretty near halfway in between for me.

[mos6507]

I don't think you have to believe in fast-crashes to be a doomer. And being a slow-crasher doesn't preclude die-off considering that limits to growth usually puts die-off at around mid-century.

I'm a slow-crash doomer. I believe in die-off but it may take a few decades to really pick up steam. I don't think we can gently slide down into some world made by hand with 10 billion people in it. Something people will consider a die-off will take place, whichever combination of the 4 horsemen it takes to do the job. It just may have to wait until all of the low-hanging-fruit of efficiency and powerdown is tried. You know, past the point of diminishing returns. I just don't see the elevator stopping at ground level. I think people who think it can are just blinded by phantom carrying capacity.

I don't preclude fast-crashes, and we'll probably see a regional fast-crash soon in the form of dollar collapse, but as bad as that may be, I don't associate that as part of the overall overshoot narrative, and therefore it doesn't scare me quite as much. I see that as a strategic blunder on the part of the US, just as the Argentinian, Zimbabwe, or Japanese "lost-decade" were.

[Loki]

"Peaker" I guess. Slow decline, but it'll feel rapid as our standard of living declines noticeably. Grinding economic depression, painful dislocation of our comfortable middle-class industrial lives. But no piles of bodies or zombie hordes.

This is for the civilized world. Sub-Saharan Africa is already at Doomer level.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'I') think the National Ignition Facility is going to achieve net gain from fusion this year and provide a much needed research data. A prototype design for a hybrid fusion-fission reactor will be developed quickly afterwards.

[Plantagenet]

I'm a non-doomer on the peak oil issue itself-----we've been on a global production plateau since 2005, and when production does fall its likely to be slow and to be masked by recessions resulting in so-called "peak demand" and growing global poverty.

However, I'm a bit more on the DOOM side when it comes to the geopolitical consequences of peak oil. The combination of islamofascists in Iran and neo-Communists in Russia and paleo-communists in North Korea and Communist capitalists in China and militarists in Pakistan and Hindu nationalists in India and capitalists in the US all having nukes and also being hit by peak oil makes me very nervous.

[Homesteader]

I voted peaker. However I don't think the "long emergency" will be all that long, maybe a couple of decades, and it won't be linear. Some areas will be more resilient and peaceful than others. Societal stress will be widespread with civil disturbances and conflict. Food, water and energy shortages will become more and more widespread, unemployment will increase, people will realize that retirement is a pipedream, etc. . .

[AirlinePilot]

Need more votes..there has to be more than 55 active posters here?? Hmmm.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 't')here has to be more than 55 active posters here??