PeakOil is You
Peak Oil in Popular Culture
Re: Peak Oil in Popular Culture
by Beery1 » Sat 05 Oct 2013, 11:02:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '.')..I think it's pretty obvious Saudi America ain't gonna be our new name...
Well, there is still one way for that to happen: after the peak, our economy goes in the toilet to the extent that virtually no one can afford oil and Saudi Arabia, the only place with oil remaining, sends troops and tanks to annex the USA. With little fuel to mobilize our military hardware, the Saudis win, impose Sharia law and hey-presto - Saudi America.
Admittedly, it's unlikely, but it's more likely than the shale oil revolution that Rigzone, the Motley Fool and Forbes are frothing at the mouth over.
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Re: Peak Oil in Popular Culture
by John_A » Sun 06 Oct 2013, 21:21:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', '
') With little fuel to mobilize our military hardware, the Saudis win, impose Sharia law and hey-presto - Saudi America.
Admittedly, it's unlikely, but it's more likely than the shale oil revolution that Rigzone, the Motley Fool and Forbes are frothing at the mouth over.
') With little fuel to mobilize our military hardware, the Saudis win, impose Sharia law and hey-presto - Saudi America.
Admittedly, it's unlikely, but it's more likely than the shale oil revolution that Rigzone, the Motley Fool and Forbes are frothing at the mouth over.
Certainly the hope of "little fuel" being the result of peak oil hasn't worked out at all, which is why some are trying to rewrite peak oil as peak oil price. As far as the "shale revolution", anything that can take a large, mature, post-peak producing province like the US and increase oil production there faster than at any time in its entire history, "revolution" might be strong word for that effect, but it might not be all that far off either.
As Rockman has repeatedly noticed, give the right people more money, and presto...deeper into the resource pyramid they go.
I assume that those of us who are truly interested in the hows and whys of what delving into that pyramid means will all be at next weeks 33rd Oil Shale Symposium at Colorado School of Mines? Learning what is happening with respect to that particular technology? Certainly with some 4 trillion barrels of potential oil involved, it is something to keep in mind.
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Re: Peak Oil in Popular Culture
by ralfy » Mon 07 Oct 2013, 02:43:55
Or the rich of the U.S., with military and government partners, will strike deals with counterparts in other countries.
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Re: Peak Oil in Popular Culture
by Pops » Mon 07 Oct 2013, 08:06:47
We've definitely not reached peak price, lol
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Oil in Popular Culture
by John_A » Mon 07 Oct 2013, 08:54:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')e've definitely not reached peak price, lol
I would agree with that one general principles, but those touting the nominal price spike in 2008 were more than happy to rewrite peak oil as peak price in just this way.
Peak Oil Day!
"For years prior to this, a growing legion of analysts had been arguing that world oil production would max out around the year 2010 and begin to decline for reasons having to do with geology (we have found and picked the world’s “low-hanging fruit” in terms of giant oilfields), as well as lack of drilling rigs and trained exploration geologists and engineers. “Peak Oil,” they insisted, would mark the end of the growth phase of industrial civilization, because economic expansion requires increasing amounts of high-quality energy."
http://www.postcarbon.org/blog-post/40804-peak-oil-day
I am surprised Heinberg hasn't removed this from his website, considering what has happened since then, and how the "geology" of increasing oil production has disagreed with his kindergarten level understanding of the topic.
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Re: Peak Oil in Popular Culture
by Pops » Mon 07 Oct 2013, 12:00:45
Of course there will be people out there selling books and blog subscriptions based on the extremes of whatever topic. I don't see a whole lot of difference between those who say (or said) PO is this day and hour and those who say oil production will never peak or never matter. They all are projecting their beliefs into the future because there is simply no way to know how it turns out. Granted, tight oil in the US has been phenomenal, whether it turns out to be a phenomenal bubble driven by land speculation and flipping or the next big thing worldwide remains to be seen.
Aside from that, maybe you quoted the wrong bit accidentally but I don't see much out of place. I can't see any reason to argue about whether we have reached the end of the low fruit, if it were otherwise we wouldn't be spending 60-70-80 or however much to extract tight, ultra-deep or polar oil and certainly not on whatever under-over cooked sorta-oil mining project.
There are lots of moving parts to the situation, investment problems over here, political problems over there; that's par but the fact is If you subtract US tight oil, world production is flat and has been for 8 years. Spin it and blow smoke however you want but that is the fact.
The biggest thing most peakers got wrong was how "well" the economy would tolerate $100 oil with the help of Quantitative Easing. Here is what I said in '04:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y plateau as well is made of ups and downs in oil price - but not as much easing of demand by renewables as by recessional dips in the economy. And I’m more worried about inflation, bursting econ bubbles, unemployment, etc, sparked by demand constriction - before actual reduction in supply.
Aside from that, maybe you quoted the wrong bit accidentally but I don't see much out of place. I can't see any reason to argue about whether we have reached the end of the low fruit, if it were otherwise we wouldn't be spending 60-70-80 or however much to extract tight, ultra-deep or polar oil and certainly not on whatever under-over cooked sorta-oil mining project.
There are lots of moving parts to the situation, investment problems over here, political problems over there; that's par but the fact is If you subtract US tight oil, world production is flat and has been for 8 years. Spin it and blow smoke however you want but that is the fact.
The biggest thing most peakers got wrong was how "well" the economy would tolerate $100 oil with the help of Quantitative Easing. Here is what I said in '04:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y plateau as well is made of ups and downs in oil price - but not as much easing of demand by renewables as by recessional dips in the economy. And I’m more worried about inflation, bursting econ bubbles, unemployment, etc, sparked by demand constriction - before actual reduction in supply.
I had no idea production was about to plateau but I also wouldn't have guessed that the Fed could just keep pumping money into the bond market, and the fed-gov via SNAP/Disability/TARP/whatever essentially offsetting the rising price of oil without causing out of control inflation. The only reason that isn't happening - that I can figure out - is there is an equal amount of deflationary pressure from increased energy prices offsetting the trillions of air being pumped into the economy in an attempt to reinflate BAU.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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