[0mar]

We are projected to pull 84 or so million barrels of oil per day. I don't see what your calculations are doing ohanian sorry!

Hubbard's model is only based on a few assumptions.

1. Total recoverable oil (approximately 1.8 - 2.2 trillion barrels for the world).
2. The upside of the curve is roughly symmetrical to the downside.
3. The turning point for the curve to start it's descent is when the reserve base is down to 50% of its ultimately recoverable reserve (in our case .9 to 1.1 trillion barrels).

[clv101]

You are missing way too many pieces of the puzzle. In February 2005 the world produced 84.3 million barrels per day. You're not taking into account all the new projects coming on line (the reason we're up to 84.3 just now).

[Golgo13]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FusionMaster5000', 'I')n response to the previous post: We are indeed a plucky lot. Sure, we've painted ourselves into a corner at this time, but when push comes to shove, human innovation comes alive. I hope that we're more than a bunch of reindeer on an island...

[Dan1195]

I agree that attempting to pick a day or month is pointless, as we will only truly know after the fact. However, I believe we are close enough to the peak year (I do not believe it has occured yet) that analysis of depletion rates, new projects, etc. can give us a reasonable estimate of when this will occur.

It is important to distinguish between demand exceeding supply, which may occur prior to a recession through higher prices, or may be the cause of one, and actual decline of production.

2005

AS I understand (I am not any kind of oil expert) This year the following rough numbers apply:

Spare Capacity: +1 mbd (mostly sour crude, but assume it can be used)
New Pojects: +3 mbd (delays always possible)
Depletion: -1.2 mbd (but increasing, e.g. decline of Canterall in Mexico)
New Demand -2 mbd.

That leaves about 0.8 mbd. Basically same position as right now.

2006

Spare: +0.8 mbd
New: +2 mbd
Depletion: -1.2 mbd (probably conservative)
Demand: -2 mbd (of course recession is possible at almost any time)

this leaves -0.4 mbd. (but +0.8 production for the year)

Beyond 2006 I am unsure about new projects but I know basically nothing substantial is coming online beyond 2007, all the while depletion rates will be increasing. IMHO it would take some massive find to push peak much beyond 2007.

Regarding Hubbert curves, there is essentialy a curve of each phase of oil exploration and production:

Discovery Curve: Peaked ~1965, now on far downslope (few finds)
Reserve Curve (backdated): Peaked 1980-1985.
Production Curve: Est. Peak ~2006-2008
Rate of Depletion Curve: prob. 2025-2030.

Approx. 20 year offset for each curve at their peak.

[maverickdoc]

Dan1195, good post where did you get the "New Pojects: +3 mbd"
from?

[Dan1195]

hmm...It was somewhere in the forums I think, I think it was also in an analysis of upcoming projects I saw someplace else.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zeltum', 'O')il may peak in about 50 years, but it won't matter. It won't be the primary resource then. Just like coal isn't now. And I know you crazies on here will all say "there is no alternative to oil etc" but my grandfather keeps telling me how eveyone said that about coal in his day.

[Michael_Allison]

Never underestimate the human ability to ignore hard facts when they aren't palatable.

The truth hurts and all that.

Personally, I think it's irrelevant what the actual date is, if there is any particular day, that we hit peak oil. It's a bell curve and we are at, or very near, the top of that curve. It's all downhill from here!

Incidentally, I think it's telling that recently OPEC announced that it will increase production by, I think it was 500,000 barrels a day. The market's response was telling - the price jumped to $55 a barrel. Now, maybe OPEC believes they are going to slake the thirst for oil, but it's clear that investors and analysts don't buy it.

Concerning abiotic oil... that may work in Russia, but in Texas the oil isn't renewing itself one little bit. It's a crackpot theory, at least, and may even be a deliberate manipulation to assuage public concern.

[ohanian]

There is only 22 days to go for my original prediction of April 22nd 2005 as indicated by the first post in this thread.

So far, things are looking on track.

[killJOY]

It's useless picking a peak date because there will be no peak--there will be a long plateau.

Let's call it "Hubbert's Mesa."

Oil production will fall flat as demand gobbles up increases in production.

For awhile it's a tug-of-war between demand and supply, a long stretch of bumpy (very) road.

Then production will begin to decline. That will be almost anti-climactic after the chaos that has ensued on Hubbert's Mesa.

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'T')here is only 22 days to go for my original prediction of April 22nd 2005 as indicated by the first post in this thread.

So far, things are looking on track.

[clv101]

Your analysis is flawed - if this turns out to be peak it's a coincidence and not for the reasons you identify. You're still working of 82mbps - net production has been climbing fast for the last year, Feb 05 produced a daily average of 83.5mbpd.

If this turns out to be peak then it will be because a large producer (like SA) has unexpectedly entered decline. Your analysis doesn't model this so any accuracy is coincidental.

See this article for a more rigorous analysis:
ODAC: Understanding Depletion
http://www.energybulletin.net/5395.html

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'Y')our analysis is flawed - if this turns out to be peak it's a coincidence and not for the reasons you identify. You're still working of 82mbps - net production has been climbing fast for the last year, Feb 05 produced a daily average of 83.5mbpd.

If this turns out to be peak then it will be because a large producer (like SA) has unexpectedly entered decline. Your analysis doesn't model this so any accuracy is coincidental.

See this article for a more rigorous analysis:
ODAC: Understanding Depletion
http://www.energybulletin.net/5395.html

[Kez]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'T')here is only 22 days to go for my original prediction of April 22nd 2005 as indicated by the first post in this thread.

So far, things are looking on track.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'A')ll,

Here is my bold prediction on the date of peak oil.
April - May 2005
Here is how I arrived at that date.

[careinke]

Any engineering degree earned 20 years ago would have been a GREAT degree.

Peace

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'A')ny engineering degree earned 20 years ago would have been a GREAT degree.
Peace