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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

"Peak Oil" a scam?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 18:51:13

Hymalai:

I wholheartedly agree: I think the psychological aspect of this is too much for most folks to handle. It is practically too much for me to handle, and I'm knee deep in the muck.

This is why I don't think you will see Richard Heinberg on a show like Democracy Now.

Even the leftist/liberal organizations, who tend to be more receptive to the idea of finite resources, resource wars, etc.. . don't want somebody to come on their show and basically say:

"Sorry, but all of your causes mean nothing now."

I myself had a bit of this reaction internally - many of the social issues that were preeminent in my thinking ceased to mean so much as I learned more about hydrocarbon depletion.

If you've centered your whole life on a partiuclar issue, it is highly disconcerting to find out it doesn't amount to a hill of beans.

This is true whether your life's goal was to move up in your corporation or whether your life's goal was to reform the justice system.

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Unread postby PalatineCreator » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 20:19:23

Hi Matt! I just recently bought your ebook. I'll get to download and read it as soon as my paypal echeck clears. I'm really looking forward to it. I hope I brought some traffic your way from this link on a copywriters forum. http://www.awaionline.com/~awaionli/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1250 I notice you've improved the headline and lead in the webcopy on your site.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you've centered your whole life on a partiuclar issue, it is highly disconcerting to find out it doesn't amount to a hill of beans.

It is disconcerting because unfortunately lots of people place so much of their own self worth in their careers and their past achievements. People even kill themselves over things like money, when money is nothing more than a means of exchange, not to mention for the past 140+ years dollars aren't backed by gold or silver, only faith. Following "causes" makes them feel good basically because it relieves feeling of guilt associated with things they've done that they percieve to be wrong or bad, such as wastefulness and excessive consumption.

I've sure I'll have some questions about your book after I read it. You said you covered all the angles, but I haven't heard any reply from you about what I've posted about cannabis ethanol as an energy alternative. You mentioned the energy ratio for ethenol is so poor that it is actually an energy deficit, but that is because of all the petroleum-based fertilizer and pesticides used to make ethanol from corn, where as hemp can be grown without either of them and yield isn't so drastically affected by weather either. The only other energy that would go into it would be for shipping as far as I can tell, but perhaps you can share what I'm missing. Hemp was grown for thousands of years before the oil age, I think it'll make a comeback whether or not we have a big die-off first.
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Unread postby Guest » Fri 10 Dec 2004, 14:33:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JLK', 'I') think the most persuasive evidence that a crisis is fast approaching is the 20 year graph of discovery minus production. Once you've seen that, you may change your tune.

At the same time, we always have the be aware that everyone has agendas, and both proponents and detractors of POT have to be scrutinized carefully to make sure they aren't selling us a bill of goods. Caveat emptor.


I have looked extensively at the statistics of oil, in terms of reserve, production and discoveries. I have found contradicting information in almost every aspects, but the most reliable information I have trusted, brings me to the follwing conclusions;

1. Oil prices are currently rising due to social, economic and productioin issues. Not out of reserve issues. There is still plenty of oil left out there, getting it, and what people are willing to pay for it, is the immediate issue.

2. Proven reserves, and current world concumption coupled with an yearly increase of 3%, and taking into consideration discovery rate, will supply the world with an oil reserve for another 20 years. There may be a crisis looming, that I cannot dispute, but the crisis in proportion to reserves (the big crisis) will not occur for at least 10 more years. There is really no need for panic, and certainly no need for war. What we do in hte next 10 years to avert the eventual crisis is what is important.

3. Looking over the debate in science, if it was true that oil is for all intents and purposes endless, then the issue becomes pollution. Going as we are today with CO2 emissions, given an endless oil supply, the world with gas itself to death in 30-50 years. That is subject to another debate of course, but much research has been done to that affect as well, including some very respectful modelling. Such that, if this 'peak oil' is a fabrication, then it is taking attention away from real issues, and the wars it creates might not be the worst of its fruits.


Many social, human factors, can be pointed out in the scientific debate. for instance, if oil was essentially infinite, then would the US and industry allow oil production in the states to decline to its current levels? If oil was essentially infinite, why so many fields are abandonned?

And then the big question, if oil is replenished from the earth's core, is the replenishement faster or just as fast as our consumption?

That last question, if <no, the earth's core does not replenish faster than our consumption>, then 'peak oil' will happen none the less. The only difference, is that 30 generations in the future will have the golden opportunity to restart the cycle we are currently ending (lucky them).

I welcome any scientific evidence that may demonstrate credible knowledge, and I agree with the author of this thread, that if you do not explore, for yourself, the validity of the facts behind the debate, you are thus useless and but a peon in a crowd of fools. Dont worry though, that will not be the first time an entire nation, an entire world, has been fooled into making a case for war.
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Re: "Peak Oil" a scam?

Unread postby Specop_007 » Fri 10 Dec 2004, 15:56:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rawneus', '.').... I hope you live in fear until the day you die with your precious peak oil theory tucked securely in the back of your mind.



I have an assault rifle. What do I have to be afraid of??

8)
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Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."

Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
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Unread postby mgibbons19 » Fri 10 Dec 2004, 16:26:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dmtu', 'I')f the majors wanted us to believe peak is here wouldn't they just tell their buddies in the mass media to print it up instead of us nuts trolling the backwaters of the internet to find related news?


You know, every once in a while I wonder about that. This must be what the apocalyptic christians must feel like. "Yes the end is coming, and won't you be sorry then. I told you so." And then I think, if I feel like apocalyptic Christians, maybe I'm reading the wrong stuff.

Just wondering.
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Unread postby Grasshopper » Sat 11 Dec 2004, 03:00:03

It seems to me that Dave McGowan only got involved in the peak oil debate to tweak Ruppert, although to do this he appears to have painstakingly researched a lot of possible alternatives, the most hilarious being the dinosaur goo theory. He likes to make his newsletters entertaining, which probably helps to sell advertising or subscriptions, no different from what he says is Michael Ruppert's motive. I am beginning to think that the Guests who come into these forums and link to Dave's website are just doing it to increase traffic on his website, which has it's own political slant, much like Ruppert's (neither of which I am much interested in, by the way).

Tracing oils back to a sedimentary source rock is a well developed and successful geochemical discipline, and oils can generally be ascribed to a source rock found in the same basin as the oil reservoir, so abiotic, or mantle/core sourced petroleum is highly unlikely;
Origin and Inferred Migration Fairways of Oils...
Exploiting the geochemical fingerprints of oils.
I am convinced that although the Russian and Ukrainian scientists who were/are proponents of mantle-sourced, abiotic oil are able scientists, they worked in the Soviet system, and were unduly influenced by the Soviet academy, much like Lysenko detrimentally influenced plant-breeding and genetics in the Soviet world.
I read Kenney's paper on thermodynamic experiments attempting to demonstrate that oil could not be formed except very deep in the mantle, and can only say that he was comparing molecules with the same number of carbon atoms as the hydrocarbons he was trying to generate, and that the source rocks contain complex molecules that break down when subjected to heat and pressure regimes found in the upper crust. These smaller molecules become oil when they migrate through aquifers and fractures to their ultimate petroleum trap, where they stay until found by drilling, or when the reservoir is breached by geological processes, and they evaporate or are subjected to bacterial degradation. The process of oil generation has probably occurred continuously through the geologic past, certainly since the Cambrian era, and will continue as long as there are oceans with plankton in them (plankton, including algae - much smaller than dinosaurs are the ultimate biological source of most oil, although one of the references above indicates some coals are a source).
Kenney:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')imilarly, such exploration in the western Siberia cratonic-rift sedimentary basin has developed 90 petroleum fields of which 80 produce either partly or entirely from the crystalline basement.

The name cratonic-rift suggests that the region is highly faulted, so I would guess that there are sedimentary source rocks proximal to the traps that might be developed in porosity formed from weathering of the crystalline rocks, which otherwise have very low porosity. The other pools he mentions, I could not easily investigate, so can't make any comment.
The Eugene Island situation, where an oil reservoir is apparently being refilled, can be explained by oil migrating up from a deeper reservoir that had not been found at the time. The abiotic oil people say the evidence supporting this is that oil of one age is entering a reservoir already containing oil of a different age, unconsciously using source-rock data to promote their theory.
Dave's website links to geotimes Geotimes in his letter promoting abiotic oil, but just picks one paragraph
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')We're dealing with this giant flow-through system where the hydrocarbons are generating now, moving through the overlying strata now, building the reservoirs now and spilling out into the ocean now," Cathles says.

to quote out of an article that contains many references to organic source rocks.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')elow the Gulf of Mexico, hydrocarbons flow upward through an intricate network of conduits and reservoirs. They start in thin layers of source rock and, from there, buoyantly rise to the surface. On their way up, the hydrocarbons collect in little rivulets, and create temporary pockets like rain filling a pond. Eventually most escape to the ocean. And, this is all happening now, not millions and millions of years ago, says Larry Cathles, a chemical geologist at Cornell University.


The oil industry is not a monolithic, conspiracy-driven arm of an evil empire, but is made up of thousands of various sized companies, state oil companies and service and consulting companies, often with different opinions about oil-finding strategies. Many dry holes are drilled as well as development wells and new finds, and no doubt there is considerable overlap of effort (lowering the ERoEI, by the way), but if only one theory or approach was ever used, a lot of oil would never be found.
I first heard of the Russian mantle-derived abiotic oil theory in the seventies from my uncle, who was a geologist who could read Russian, and have noted it occasionally since, though never so much as since I started browsing this forum. I am doubtful that the abiotic oil theory explains the source of most of the earth's oil.
Whether or not world-wide oil production peaks next year or in 30 years, it will eventually peak, but the oil industry will continue to operate, applying new and old technologies and theories in finding and producing oil for a long time, making the back side of the peak gradual enough to develop alternates and to convert to more energy-efficient systems.
If it comes down to depending on deep mantle-sourced abiotic oil for your energy future, you're probably better off cashing out your life savings in $50 dollar bills and burning them in your fireplace.
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