by Guest » Fri 10 Dec 2004, 14:33:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JLK', 'I') think the most persuasive evidence that a crisis is fast approaching is the 20 year graph of discovery minus production. Once you've seen that, you may change your tune.
At the same time, we always have the be aware that everyone has agendas, and both proponents and detractors of POT have to be scrutinized carefully to make sure they aren't selling us a bill of goods. Caveat emptor.
I have looked extensively at the statistics of oil, in terms of reserve, production and discoveries. I have found contradicting information in almost every aspects, but the most reliable information I have trusted, brings me to the follwing conclusions;
1. Oil prices are currently rising due to social, economic and productioin issues. Not out of reserve issues. There is still plenty of oil left out there, getting it, and what people are willing to pay for it, is the immediate issue.
2. Proven reserves, and current world concumption coupled with an yearly increase of 3%, and taking into consideration discovery rate, will supply the world with an oil reserve for another 20 years. There may be a crisis looming, that I cannot dispute, but the crisis in proportion to reserves (the big crisis) will not occur for at least 10 more years. There is really no need for panic, and certainly no need for war. What we do in hte next 10 years to avert the eventual crisis is what is important.
3. Looking over the debate in science, if it was true that oil is for all intents and purposes endless, then the issue becomes pollution. Going as we are today with CO2 emissions, given an endless oil supply, the world with gas itself to death in 30-50 years. That is subject to another debate of course, but much research has been done to that affect as well, including some very respectful modelling. Such that, if this 'peak oil' is a fabrication, then it is taking attention away from real issues, and the wars it creates might not be the worst of its fruits.
Many social, human factors, can be pointed out in the scientific debate. for instance, if oil was essentially infinite, then would the US and industry allow oil production in the states to decline to its current levels? If oil was essentially infinite, why so many fields are abandonned?
And then the big question, if oil is replenished from the earth's core, is the replenishement faster or just as fast as our consumption?
That last question, if <no, the earth's core does not replenish faster than our consumption>, then 'peak oil' will happen none the less. The only difference, is that 30 generations in the future will have the golden opportunity to restart the cycle we are currently ending (lucky them).
I welcome any scientific evidence that may demonstrate credible knowledge, and I agree with the author of this thread, that if you do not explore,
for yourself, the validity of the facts behind the debate, you are thus useless and but a peon in a crowd of fools. Dont worry though, that will not be the first time an entire nation, an entire world, has been fooled into making a case for war.