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Optimists Never Learn

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Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Pops » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 12:14:05

Literally.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') study, published in Nature Neuroscience, suggests the brain is very good at processing good news about the future.

However, in some people, anything negative is practically ignored - with them retaining a positive world view...

When the news [in the test] was positive, all people had more activity in the brain's frontal lobes, which are associated with processing errors. With negative information, the most optimistic people had the least activity in the frontal lobes, while the least optimistic had the most.

It suggests the brain is picking and choosing which evidence to listen to.


They also say 80% of people are optimists so I guess the majority of the population really are sheep who simply ignore bad news or potential problems until they are stampeded by events. Not only does that explain why we hear of only a few people actually doing anything in preparation for PO but also why no argument or facts presented seem to have any effect on our few corny-trolls here, let alone the wider populace.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-15214080
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Alan Cain » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 14:03:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'L')iterally.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') study, published in Nature Neuroscience, suggests the brain is very good at processing good news about the future.

However, in some people, anything negative is practically ignored - with them retaining a positive world view...

When the news [in the test] was positive, all people had more activity in the brain's frontal lobes, which are associated with processing errors. With negative information, the most optimistic people had the least activity in the frontal lobes, while the least optimistic had the most.

It suggests the brain is picking and choosing which evidence to listen to.


They also say 80% of people are optimists so I guess the majority of the population really are sheep who simply ignore bad news or potential problems until they are stampeded by events. Not only does that explain why we hear of only a few people actually doing anything in preparation for PO but also why no argument or facts presented seem to have any effect on our few corny-trolls here, let alone the wider populace.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-15214080


Hmmm.... my wife DOES say I seem to notice bad news more than good news, while I am repackaging oats, ordering solar panels and .308 ammo, and digging the bunker. Seemed to me just rational behavior...

Must... up... meds...

Reminds me to order more antibiotics and painkillers. Thanks!!
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 15:06:23

I dunno about that. The pessimistic doomers on this website have demonstrated some of the strongest heard mentality I have seen. Try posting any positive news here and it's all: "Circle the wagons! Sunshine is trying to get threw our wall of doom and gloom!!" I guess anyone can choose to shut out news they don't want to hear.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Pops » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 15:27:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') dunno about that.


That's pretty funny. I take it you are and optimist?

Never mind...

:lol:
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Cog » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 15:29:10

All doomers are not created equal. I am a certified doomer, in that when I look at long range trends like peak oil, climate change, and federal spending, I see that the math doesn't work for sustainability. That causes me to look at my individual situation and try to mitigate my circumstances to fit into what I see coming down the road.

There is a great deal of resiliency in the system(A lot more than I imagined) so I would classify myself as a slow crash doomer. But I see no real positive trends that would make me change my opinion that we as a global society are experiencing huge problems and that those problems will increase in both scope and severity.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Duende » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 15:33:39

That's interesting, because, evolutionarily speaking you'd think the more cautious of our ancestors - the ones who paid attention to the subtle (and not so subtle clues) would have had more success. But evidently not. I guess it goes to show that people just wanna have fun, screw the consequences.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Pops » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 15:39:00

Seriously though, take a look at the "what I got wrong" thread.

It's mostly pessimists who are surprised that things didn't get as bad as they thought as fast as they thought. A few say they are more pessimistic now but there isn't one semi-corny poster who says they are in the least surprised that all of Yergin's price forecasts were way, way too low or that his prediction that we'd be at about 105Mb/day by now is woefully wrong or that the average Joe is much worse off than he was in 2005 when the site went live...
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 15:49:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') dunno about that.


That's pretty funny. I take it you are and optimist?

Never mind...

:lol:
I take it you don't notice all of the heard mentality here eh? I prefer to think for myself but that's just me.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 15:52:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'L')iterally.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') study, published in Nature Neuroscience, suggests the brain is very good at processing good news about the future. However, in some people, anything negative is practically ignored - with them retaining a positive world view...

[This] explains why no argument or facts presented seem to have any effect on our few corny-trolls here.


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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Cog » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 16:22:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') dunno about that. The pessimistic doomers on this website have demonstrated some of the strongest heard mentality I have seen. Try posting any positive news here and it's all: "Circle the wagons! Sunshine is trying to get threw our wall of doom and gloom!!" I guess anyone can choose to shut out news they don't want to hear.


Difficult to understand that as a member of a peak oil site you have never researched peak oil and the ramifications thereof. If not here than surely at The Oil Drum.

Sad really.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 16:27:23

Does this make your frontal lobes tingle:?

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001(PDF)
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Last edited by Keith_McClary on Mon 10 Oct 2011, 16:30:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 16:29:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') dunno about that. The pessimistic doomers on this website have demonstrated some of the strongest heard mentality I have seen. Try posting any positive news here and it's all: "Circle the wagons! Sunshine is trying to get threw our wall of doom and gloom!!" I guess anyone can choose to shut out news they don't want to hear.


Difficult to understand that as a member of a peak oil site you have never researched peak oil and the ramifications thereof. If not here than surely at The Oil Drum.

Sad really.
Son, I've probably read more about peak oil than you will in your entire life. But like I said, I like to think for myself rather than blindly follow dogma. Apparently that has made me worthy of your scorn. If so, so be it.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Pops » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 17:04:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') dunno about that.


That's pretty funny. I take it you are and optimist?

Never mind...

:lol:
I take it you don't notice all of the heard mentality here eh? I prefer to think for myself but that's just me.

Of course PO has it's sacred cows and one trick ponies, just like any other belief or theory or cult or whatever; EROEI, Jeavons, ELM, infinite growth, blah, blah.

What would be stranger, if most here believed those ideas or few did?

I kinda doubt many people would say they prefer to think like the crowd, OTOH, placing oneself in a crowd who is certain to think differently then calling oneself a freethinker seems a little... what? Contrived? I'm not saying that's what you are doing but I've yet to see an optimist who's argued "They'll Find A Way!" admit it's taking longer than they thought, or they'd never believed the price could go to $147, or that a repeat of 2008 this soon really surprised them or how hard it was for KSA to bring on all that spare capacity they have just behind a couple of gate valves or...

OTOH, lots of pessimists admit surprise about fracking and sub-salt and ethanol volumes and wet gas and that there is any elasticity at all and that economy can function at all at $100...

---
@ Duende
Actually I think a lot of survival has to do with attitude. Eeyore strikes me as one to just lay down and give up - even though he probably has all the bad scenarios plotted down to the nth degree!

That pessimists who "plan for the worst and hope to be proven wrong" are outnumbered in modern America by optimists who 'plan for the best and ignore the rest (until they are eaten)' may not say much about long term evolution. :wink:
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 17:48:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')ctually I think a lot of survival has to do with attitude. Eeyore strikes me as one to just lay down and give up - even though he probably has all the bad scenarios plotted down to the nth degree!

That pessimists who "plan for the worst and hope to be proven wrong" are outnumbered in modern America by optimists who 'plan for the best and ignore the rest (until they are eaten)' may not say much about long term evolution.
I agree with you here that survival has alot to do with attitude. And I think having an optimistic attitude can increase your chances of survival. The fact that 80% of us are optimists would seem to bear that out in reality as well.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e don't usually think of optimism as a survival skill, but that's exactly what it is. In this article, I'm going to show you precisely why it's a skill... and why it's absolutely essential for life. When you start to see optimism as the ultimate survival skill, you'll begin to deliberately improve that skill, and the rewards will be phenomenal.

By adopting an optimistic outlook on life, we can achieve more and live longer. The tendency toward certain types of reactions is real. All other things being equal, the optimist will be most likely to survive a life-threatening situation.

In fact, a study in 2004 of nearly 1,000 people found that optimists have a 23% reduction of the risk of heart disease, and a 55% reduction in all causes of death. Think about that. Just by being optimistic about your life, you reduce your risk of many different life-threatening diseases. A more recent study of nearly 100,000 women over the age of 50 found that the optimists were 30% less likely to die of heart disease.

When we think of survival skills, we usually think about things like "learning how to build a fire" or "learning how to perform CPR". We equate survival with the basic necessities of life itself — food, shelter, clothing. Survival skills are about keeping you alive. So how is optimism a survival skill? Without it, you will die. In fact, optimism is the ultimate survival skill, because it empowers every other survival skill. Imagine a pessimist trying to light a fire. Now imagine an optimist doing it.

Whether you're facing a boardroom of clients, a blank page in your book-in-progress, or someone who needs CPR, optimism is the skill that points you to the road of life.
Why Optimism is the Ultimate Survival Skill

I think maintaining a healthy optimistic attitude will go a long way to helping you in life, in good times and in bad. That doesn't mean ignoring reality and having faith everything will work out ok. That is more like idealism than optimism. The article I linked to breaks it down in more detail if you are interested. Sounds like many on this board have sharpened various other survival skills like growing your own food, etc. It might be a wise for a few to sharpen up that optimism skill as well. It might help more than you think.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 18:09:41

Stock market bears who are always betting on the stock market dropping to 1,500 do pretty badly.

I think there needs to be a distinction between people that can analyze and respond to bad results, compared to the folks who are just lost in their morbid fantasies and anxiety.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Cloud9 » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 19:16:44

The bears are betting against the FED. The stock market will be booming as long as another trillion dollars is just a mouse click away. 8O
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 19:54:30

I always loved hearing my grandmother tell me to have a beautiful day before she sent me off for school in the morning. I think it made me optimistic walking to school. I couldn't imagine my grandma telling me to have a terrible day! That's frightening but I suppose something could go wrong walking to school, as far as I'm concerned my grandma was %100 correct for sending me on my way optimistically.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby Bruce_S » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 20:03:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'T')he bears are betting against the FED. The stock market will be booming as long as another trillion dollars is just a mouse click away. 8O


And how much money are you betting on that? Certainly those who jumped into the market around March, 2009 profited handsomely from the improvement in stock values. I am not convinced that what you say is true, I still think there is downside to be waited out. Then will be the time to drop 5 or 6 figures back in.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby peripato » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 22:17:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') dunno about that. The pessimistic doomers on this website have demonstrated some of the strongest heard mentality I have seen. Try posting any positive news here and it's all: "Circle the wagons! Sunshine is trying to get threw our wall of doom and gloom!!" I guess anyone can choose to shut out news they don't want to hear.

I'd like to remind you that it was happy optimists who got us into the mess we’re in, not doomsayers.
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Re: Optimists Never Learn

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 22:35:59

That's a lot like me saying "nature will prosper when people are gone". Is that optimistic or pessimistic?

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Yes, things will go up, and they will go down.
Like the Sun and Moon.
Cycles happen, optimistic or pessimistic, it doesn't mater.
You will see this quite frequently, get used to it.
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