$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', 'I') remember years ago when oil prices would drop. The production and exploration workers would be hurting, but jobs would ramp up in the petro-chemical industry because their feed stock would get cheaper. It isn't that way any more. The world wide depression is slowing the purchase of almost everything, and cheap feed stocks won't push plastic toys out the door any more.
Starting to get interesting.
PeakOil is You
Oil workers becoming depressed and suicidal due to oil glut
Re: Oil workers becoming depressed and suicidal due to oil g
by Hawkcreek » Tue 15 Dec 2015, 19:10:06
(Red font above, mine).
Just because economic doomers are feeling depressed does NOT mean a global depression is underway.
1). Global growth has been relatively modest, but consistently growth since 2009.
2). Growth is and has been generally occurring in many broad areas, both geographic and by economic sector. (Examples: GDP, oil, and global air miles traveled).
3). As Ayn Rand said, words have precise meanings.
4). Growth rates of countries change as countries' economies evolve. For example, China is slowing down and India has been accelerating. Overall, global BAU growth has generally continued, and outside the world of zerohedge, is generally forecast to continue over time.
If you mean you'd like to see higher rates of growth, say that. But looking at the overall statistics by five year intervals, 2011-2015 wasn't that far off the typical average growth. The more doomers on this site say things like "we're in a global economic depression", the less credibility they have re economic data. It reminds me of Cid Yama complaining about the "massive starvation" in America, as though there were no food stamp program.
For example, on global economic growth (all these hits were easily found in the first page of a Google search on the topic, such as "global economic growth rate"):
global economic growth, generally:
http://www.worldeconomics.com/papers/Gl ... ef21.paper
global growth broken out by country:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
World oil demand:
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
Global passenger air miles traveled:
http://www.statista.com/statistics/1935 ... er-demand/
I'm NOT saying global society isn't in trouble if things don't change, nor that BAU growth is sustainable over the long run. However, just making stuff up doesn't teach us anything.
Boy, that was a long response to one sentence that you disagreed with. Come on, what are you really trying to say?
If you swallow the official government statistics, you are probably right.
Problem is - I don't.
I believe we have much more inflation in this country than our government says (and that lack of real loss is figured into all of their other statistics).
I believe that if you count official GDP as a measure of health, without discounting purely financial activities, you aren't showing an accurate picture of growth.
I believe that wages and savings have gone down in the past 30 years.
I believe that we have nearly as many people on welfare and food stamps than we had in the last great depression.
I believe that if you use Ayn Rand as a source for anything, you are showing a lot more about yourself than you probably want to.
Do I have pretty official statistics to back up my beliefs? No, I don't - but I will continue to believe what I see, over what I am told by people with an agenda to support.
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
John Prine
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Re: Oil workers becoming depressed and suicidal due to oil g
by ennui2 » Tue 15 Dec 2015, 19:46:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')Just because economic doomers are feeling depressed does NOT mean a global depression is underway.
...
Overall, global BAU growth has generally continued, and outside the world of zerohedge, is generally forecast to continue over time.
...
The more doomers on this site say things like "we're in a global economic depression", the less credibility they have re economic data.
...
I'm NOT saying global society isn't in trouble if things don't change, nor that BAU growth is sustainable over the long run. However, just making stuff up doesn't teach us anything.
')Just because economic doomers are feeling depressed does NOT mean a global depression is underway.
...
Overall, global BAU growth has generally continued, and outside the world of zerohedge, is generally forecast to continue over time.
...
The more doomers on this site say things like "we're in a global economic depression", the less credibility they have re economic data.
...
I'm NOT saying global society isn't in trouble if things don't change, nor that BAU growth is sustainable over the long run. However, just making stuff up doesn't teach us anything.
What a GREAT post!
This is exactly my stance regarding where we are on the doomer-scale too, and yet I've been branded a corny and a troll for it. But it's nice to see I'm not alone, just maybe the loudest dissenting voice.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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ennui2 - Permanently Banned
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Re: Oil workers becoming depressed and suicidal due to oil g
by ennui2 » Tue 15 Dec 2015, 19:51:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', '
')If you swallow the official government statistics, you are probably right.
Problem is - I don't.
')If you swallow the official government statistics, you are probably right.
Problem is - I don't.
The problem with doomer rebuttals like this is that when the facts seem to paint a picture they don't like, there's really nowhere to go besides some mixture of conspiratorial thinking (like above) and simple ad-homs (shooting the messenger). This is the equivalent of where Donald Trump went after Obama produced his birth-certificate. If you keep doubling-down and doubling-down you're basically waving the flag of bias and ignorance, forcing a narrative frame around the world whether it's accurate or not. This is the worst thing anyone can possibly do if they want to be taken seriously outside of the echo chamber, which isn't really high on doomer priorities since they're already marginalized back under the noise-floor of society.
The wiser approach would be to just admit to being wrong (which nobody ever does) and moderate your viewpoints. So maybe doom won't happen tomorrow and maybe all those thousands of dollars of canned goods in the pantry won't be needed anytime soon. But there's such a sunk investment in TEOTWAWKI happening right around the corner that this moderation of viewpoint just can't happen. If it did, then there's really little reason to keep coming here and discussing the issues. Which is what all the active posters wound up doing--leaving. So that's selection bias at work. The only ones left here are those who, by and large, are in denial of reality.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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