[o2ny]

Just saw this on msnbc:

Oil Spike Won't Cause Oil Shocks of Past

No mention of PO but instead dismissing high oil prices as purely demand driven when compared to supply shocks of 70's and 80's:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he biggest difference now, economists say, is that this surge in oil prices is driven by soaring demand for oil, not a sudden cutoff in supplies as occurred with the previous oil shocks.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('o2ny', 'J')ust saw this on msnbc:

Oil Spike Won't Cause Oil Shocks of Past

No mention of PO but instead dismissing high oil prices as purely demand driven when compared to supply shocks of 70's and 80's:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he biggest difference now, economists say, is that this surge in oil prices is driven by soaring demand for oil, not a sudden cutoff in supplies as occurred with the previous oil shocks.

[MicroHydro]

1% decline a year won't rock the world, but wait until we get into 8-10% annual declines by the end of the decade. Then people will be singing a different tune.

[dukey]

if the media turned round and went
peak oil is near and the economy will get absolutely and utterly fucked

all hell would break loose
what would investors do if they actually .. realised this ?
etc etc .. ;p

as far as i an concerned its count down to melt down

[o2ny]

This brings up the question of how aware currently are professional investors about the PO crises (or the media for that matter)? Obviously people who read this board are factoring PO into their investment choices in a big way. But if the investment community at large is generally unaware of and/or chooses not to believe in PO, then we'd have to think this recent run up in oil was caused purely by current market forces and not really by any speculation on PO getting priced in. Which would be kind of scary.

I met a guy at a party a few weeks ago who said he was some kind of commodities broker- I asked him what he thought about the price of oil. He basically gave me a non-answer like 'I don't deal in oil futures' which led me to believe he hadn't even thought about it or heard about it. IMO PO is the event of our lifetimes and this guy- who's virtually in the eye of the storm- has no opinion. Is this the norm? what is the consensus among the 'pro' investors.

[DantesPeak]

In addition to some good commnets above, there are some financial and fundemental reasons why the energy price shockwave hasn't affected the economy much - that is within the US:

Economy Outruns Energy Price Shockwave in Second Quarter

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ositive comments about the second quarter GDP in the press show that the financial industry still misunderstands the effect and implications of the energy price shockwave.

While the efforts of the US consumer to get ahead of the encroaching energy shockwave have been valiant, they will not be able to keep outrunning it much longer.

Only by a combination of raiding consumers' savings and an increase in national borrowing (through the current account deficit), did the US achieve an economic gain in the second quarter. The personal savings rate plunged to a microscopic 0.2% from a revised average of 1.8% in 2004. The drop in the savings rate accounts for the sluggish M2 money supply growth, which has been growing only about 2.5% over the last six months. Inflation adjusted money supply, now negative, is considered a reliable leading indicator of economic activity by the Conference Board.

[Lehyina]

From the msnbc article:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')People forget that energy just isn't as big relative to the economy as it was 25 years ago," he said, referring to the conservation that has occurred to cut energy usage by both consumers and businesses.