by go5star » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 20:12:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:
Here's the most important part from that Rand study :
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')urrently, no organization with the management,
technical, and financial wherewithal to develop oil shale resources has announced its
intent to build commercial-scale production facilities. A firm decision to commit
funds to such a venture is at least six years away because that is the minimum length
of time for scale-up and process confirmation work needed to obtain the technical
Summary xi
and environmental data required for the design and permitting of a first-of-a-kind
commercial operation. At least an additional six to eight years will be required to
permit, design, construct, shake down, and confirm performance of that initial commercial
operation. Consequently, at least 12 and possibly more years will elapse
before oil shale development will reach the production growth phase. Under high
growth assumptions, an oil shale production level of 1 million barrels per day is
probably more than 20 years in the future, and 3 million barrels per day is probably
more than 30 years into the future.
It's good that you have optimism about your new project, but the time for all this was 30 years ago, when all were warned the first time. I also find it highly questionable that NO ONE in almost 40 years of work has found a way to make this an effective process. It makes absolutely ZERO sense to use more energy to develop oil resources than they would eventually produce in the end. This seems to be a recurring theme with shale oil. First it was, it'll be viable when oil is $8 a barrel, and then $20 a barrlel, then $ 40 a barrel. This argument is getting real old, and it's because people are too stupid to understand the concepts of thermodynamics (entropy especially).
3 mbd isn't going to do a damn bit of good in 30 years when we will need 30 mbd in about 10 years. Good luck with your project. Make sure they don't pay you in dollars.

Congratulations, you just bought into a study/paper that would not have received anything more than a D in any college across the nation. Believe the Rand study do you? I guess you believe it when they say that oil will be $50.00 a barrel in 2025. Or perhaps you believe it when they use calculations that they don't disclose regarding the costs of Shell Oil's new process. Our projected breakeven isn't $70.00 as Rand suggests but is around $13.00 per barrel. I'm glad that you are big enough to understand big words such as thermodynamics and entropy. Do you understand big words such as plastic, fertilizer, filters? Then you'll know that coal doesn't do real great making such things.. Perhaps you'll know that solar and wind don't do crap for making 99.99 percent of cars, boats, trains, tractors, farm equipment, generators or anything else go. You obviously haven't read my earlier posts explaining our project. You obviously know everything there is to know about energy in all its forms and its prospects. I used to build/sell computers and at the time and a megabyte of memory was $50.00. Now a megabyte of memory equivalent is only 10 cents. In 1991 nobody would have predicted such a drop and would have argued that there theoretical limits to the progress to be made. So genius, if you can extract 5+ barrels of oil from $31.00 worth of coal and $10 worth of shale is that an energy negative process? What if from that same process you also produce 2357 kilowatt hours of electricity? Golly not only that but you get CO2 that you can sell to pump into oil wells nearby to increase production as well as sulfur. Wow, you now have 4 tons of spent shale that has been processed cleanly enough for use as road base, aggregrate or cement extender. Bummer, only $650.00 worth of saleable product from $31.00 in coal. Of course there are related shale mining costs and plant costs and we only net $400M+ per plant out of $800M+ of revenue but yes those are dollars. Keep living in the 70's but I think most people have noticed things have changed since then.