[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')ily you are asking me to do your homework. You expect other people to believe that this gunk, which has never amounted to anything ever, is suddenly going to power your personal trips to the Shopping Mall. It didn't work at $5/barrel. What makes you think it will power up at $10.

It didn't work at $20, what makes you think it will at $40?

It still doesn't and it won't at $200.

Don't you understand. You have the burden of proof. Not me.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')on't you understand. You have the burden of proof. Not me.

[Oil-Finder]

Tony, nobody knows what future production rates from oil shale might be. They might be big, or they might be small. The fact that it hasn't produced much oil to date means little or nothing: The reason why the previous attempts to harness it went kaput is because 1) the technology to extract it at a reasonable price and quantity wasn't there, and 2) particularly in the early 80's when the last batch of interest arose, the price of oil collapsed soon afterwards. Nobody is claiming that extracting this stuff will be as cheap as extracting oil in Saudi Arabia, but in the CNN/Fortune article I linked earlier, Shell says their method can be profitable at $30/barrel. With oil around $90/barrel nowadays, it's looking good. This is probably why oil companies are investing hundreds of millions of $$ in research.

Just because something has never been done before, does not mean it will never be done. There is always a "first time" for everything - including extracting oil from shale in large quantities.

But all that is just an aside. Peakers like pstarr keep citing the claim that the energy density of oil shale is the same as that of a potato. I am asking that he provide proof of that claim. So far, he has refused to.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')ily you are asking me to do your homework. You expect other people to believe that this gunk, which has never amounted to anything ever, is suddenly going to power your personal trips to the Shopping Mall. It didn't work at $5/barrel. What makes you think it will power up at $10.

It didn't work at $20, what makes you think it will at $40?

It still doesn't and it won't at $200.

Don't you understand. You have the burden of proof. Not me.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') think that what pstarr is getting at is that those who claim, or who appear to claim, that oil shale is a significant factor in keeping the party going (and, consequently, there is no need for anyone to worry about crashing societies) really should show that oil shale projects can produce millions of barrels per day, and starting quite soon.

Whether it might eventually be profitable for some companies is not really the issue, it's more a question of what is the likely (so some percentage of the optimistic estimates) net production rate for oil from shale. It took about 30 years to get tar sands up to 1 mbpd and there seemed to be a flurry of stories last year about project delays and escalating costs. That may rise to 2 mbpd in the next decade. And I don't think that is net energy. If oil shale could double that, how would that affect a decline in conventional oil, which may start within a few years?

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')nce again oily it comes down to your blind faith two unknowns:

The first a technology that has never made a cent or produced a commercial barrel of petroleum (THAI and SAGD);

and two your belief in an economic theory has never been proven (that declining petroleum cause potatoes, oil shale, or some other stuff) to have value as the primary energy source for any industrial system.

You are a religious fanatic of a particular kind. You worship technology and free-market supply side voodooism. How quaint

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'F')reddyH you can take your company press release somewhere else. I am going to sleep.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 'S')hell says their method can be profitable at $30/barrel. With oil around $90/barrel nowadays, it's looking good. This is probably why oil companies are investing hundreds of millions of $$ in research.

Just because something has never been done before, does not mean it will never be done. There is always a "first time" for everything - including extracting oil from shale in large quantities.

But all that is just an aside. Peakers like pstarr keep citing the claim that the energy density of oil shale is the same as that of a potato. I am asking that he provide proof of that claim. So far, he has refused to.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'T')ony, heavy/xheavy/sands production is 3-mbd today and poised for an 8-mbd peak in 2030. Globally, kerogen could add 10 - 14mbd at peak to global supply in the latter half of the century.

Considering the ramp up time scale, there is little probability of these non-conventionals growing the Peak Rate. They will however dampen the decline considerably ... to about 1.4% over the next two decades.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')t's not an aside.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 'B')ig research projects on potentially huge engineering projects using new technologies takes years. Not only do they have to test the technology itself, they are probably re-testing it, making tweaks as they go along, trying new things, etc., so on, and so forth. If that weren't enough, they have to conduct environmental studies, get water rights, do a political dance with the state of Colorado, local governments and DOE, and a whole ton of other things. All this isn't something you can do overnight.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'T')ony, heavy/xheavy/sands production is 3-mbd today and poised for an 8-mbd peak in 2030. Globally, kerogen could add 10 - 14mbd at peak to global supply in the latter half of the century.

Considering the ramp up time scale, there is little probability of these non-conventionals growing the Peak Rate. They will however dampen the decline considerably ... to about 1.4% over the next two decades.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'F')orty years from now the world population will have already peaked - at about 9-Bil.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')ily you are asking me to do your homework. You expect other people to believe that this gunk, which has never amounted to anything ever, is suddenly going to power your personal trips to the Shopping Mall. It didn't work at $5/barrel. What makes you think it will power up at $10.

It didn't work at $20, what makes you think it will at $40?

It still doesn't and it won't at $200.

Don't you understand. You have the burden of proof. Not me.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'E')conomic growth requires increasing resources.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'E')conomic growth requires increasing resources.