[Casimir]

If oil prices continue to rise, subsitution will occur and dependence on oil will fall. At the same time production will fall. So in 100 years oil prices should fall to zero as nobody will need oil anymore. The real strategic issue now is natural gas, not so much oil

[Permanently_Baffled]

If substitution works, why hasnt something replaced natural gas in the US?

Faulty logic perhaps?

Erm.......

[Casimir]

Because gas is still cheap and economical. If prices become too high people will move on. Tress do not reach the skys .... commodity prices are generally mean reverting

[ashurbanipal]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause gas is still cheap and economical. If prices become too high people will move on.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Casimir', 'B')ecause gas is still cheap and economical. If prices become too high people will move on.

[ejacob3]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Casimir', 'I')f oil prices continue to rise, subsitution will occur and dependence on oil will fall. At the same time production will fall. So in 100 years oil prices should fall to zero as nobody will need oil anymore. The real strategic issue now is natural gas, not so much oil

[Raxozanne]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Casimir', 'I')f oil prices continue to rise, subsitution will occur and dependence on oil will fall. At the same time production will fall. So in 100 years oil prices should fall to zero as nobody will need oil anymore. The real strategic issue now is natural gas, not so much oil

[Permanently_Baffled]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Casimir', 'B')ecause gas is still cheap and economical. If prices become too high people will move on. Tress do not reach the skys .... commodity prices are generally mean reverting

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

You think the laws of supply and demand trump the laws of physics, it's the exact opposite.

Good luck.

[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Casimir', 'I')f oil prices continue to rise, subsitution will occur and dependence on oil will fall. At the same time production will fall. So in 100 years oil prices should fall to zero as nobody will need oil anymore. The real strategic issue now is natural gas, not so much oil

[gt1370a]

This is a classic misunderstanding of supply and demand. When commodity prices get high, (1) supply goes up, (2) demand goes down, or (3) alternatives become avaiable. It is not necessary that all 3 happen, it can be only one of them or some combination. It doesn't look like supplies will go up significantly in the near term, and may actually start to decrease. Alternatives have limited viability, as is the subject of probably 50% of the posts on this board. That leaves demand going down. Yes, demand will have to go down. The market will work. But what that means is unemployment, starvation, freezing, and conflict. In 100 years, the price of oil may be zero because there will probably be no effective use for oil anymore, and the stuff that's left won't be retrievable by low-tech means.

If you don't believe this, tell me - why didn't they find a substitute for trees on Easter Island? Why didn't the Anasazi find a substitute for water? The market doesn't demand that substitution will happen, it is just one possible outcome.

[chris-h]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Casimir', 'I')f oil prices continue to rise, subsitution will occur and dependence on oil will fall. At the same time production will fall. So in 100 years oil prices should fall to zero as nobody will need oil anymore. The real strategic issue now is natural gas, not so much oil

[Falconoffury]

I think Casimir is right, but there won't be that many people left alive by the time we stop using oil.

[elroy]

You can't forget oil isn't just used for fuel and heating, but also for chemical plants and other stuff. So I doubt it would drop that much.

[cube]

welcome to the board Casimir

There's much to learn here if you stick around.

[deconstructionist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', 'Y')ou think the laws of supply and demand trump the laws of physics, it's the exact opposite.

Good luck.

[ubercynicmeister]

In a sort of twisted sense, this may be correct - how high does the Price Of Oil have to rise before the demand is forced downwards?

US$1000 per barrel?

US$2000 per barrel?

Higher?

Even a "vital" commodity like Oil cannot be purchased by everyone if prices reach that level.

The problem is that once the Oil Price falls (no matter how high the price gets), the Freemarket Fundamentalists will insist that "everything's now OK, we can go back to our previous lifestyle (etc etc)"

This is the same group of people who are mysteriously silent when the Price of Oil rises.

The Freemarket will solve the problems?

Perhaps, but maybe not in the way that is meant: the Freemarket is sucking the life out of our Society, much like the vampires they are. I suppose "death" is a Market Driven Alternative. Especially if you can't afford to heat your own home, in a cold Winter - or keep food in cool storage in a hot Summer.

Think about it.

[Barbara]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem is that once the Oil Price falls (no matter how high the price gets), the Freemarket Fundamentalists will insist that "everything's now OK, we can go back to our previous lifestyle (etc etc)"

[Doly]

Just in case the above post wasn't clear enough: Think what happens when there is less supply than demand of food. It happens all the time in Africa. Eventually, it's true that demand of food falls down. It's called famine.

Of course, oil isn't as necessary as food. But you may find that by the time there is demand destruction, a hell of a lot of things have gone down the sink.