by copious.abundance » Mon 11 Jul 2011, 18:58:32
There's a good reason why the release hasn't had an effect on prices yet (aside from the initial shock) ...
None of the oil has been released yet. In fact they just finished signing the contracts today. Most of the oil won't be delivered until next month.
LINK$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Energy Department said that it is working with other agencies to streamline deliveries and that some companies had requested early delivery of the oil, in July, rather than in August, as had been planned. About 7 million barrels of crude could be delivered in July, with the remainder in August, a source said, adding that companies are still finalizing arrangements.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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by babystrangeloop » Wed 27 Jul 2011, 20:08:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2011/06/30/markets/oil_prices/chart_ws_commodity_energy_oil.top.png[/img]
Oil prices rising a week after SPR release
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Oil prices have surged in the last few days and are now less than a dollar from where they were when President Obama made the controversial decision to tap the nation's strategic reserve last Thursday.
On Thursday, West Texas Intermediate crude edged lower to $94.27 a barrel. But that's still nearly $5 higher than last week, when prices fell over 4% following the oil release announcement.
(snip)
Oil's stubborn refusal to trend lower since the United States and other industrialized nations announced they would flood the oil market with 60 million barrels of fuel over the next 30 days is raising questions over what's driving the market -- fundamentals or pure speculation?http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/30/markets/oil_prices/Huh, so the cooperative worldwide release of oil reserves only bought us a week.
Also note how CNN posits the question whether oil's "stubbornness" is due to speculators or "fundamentals." I'd say both -- speculators AND peak oil. The two go hand in hand.
Oh, it's so "AFTER", so very "AFTER" that it's still going on and on.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]
DOE: 1.77 Million Barrels Of SPR Oil-Sale Crude Shipped As Of ThursdayBy David Bird / DOW JONES NEWSWIRES / July 22, 2011
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- A total of 1.77 million barrels of crude oil sold under the U.S. emergency sale has been shipped from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of Thursday, the Energy Department said.
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) received 750,000 barrels, while Plains All American Pipeline LP's (PAA) Plains Marketing LP got 520,000 barrels and Shell Trading (US) Co., a unit of Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA, RDSA.LN), received 500,000 barrels.
Deliveries scheduled for the week of July 17-23 total 4.52 million barrels, the data show, with 8.74 million barrels set for delivery in July. The remaining 21.9 million barrels will be shipped in August. ...
And guess what? The price of oil is finally dropping too.OK, so ICE Brent is still $118 and OPEC ORB is $113 but WTI dropped to $97
by babystrangeloop » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 06:44:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('babystrangeloop', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('babystrangeloop', '
')And guess what? The price of oil is finally dropping too.
OK, so ICE Brent is still $118 and OPEC ORB is $113 but WTI dropped to $97
OK, so ICE Brent is still $116 and OPEC ORB is $113 but WTI dropped to $94
OK, so ICE Brent is still $105 and OPEC ORB is $103 but WTI dropped to $83
So is the SPR release the cause?
by Outcast_Searcher » Mon 08 Aug 2011, 07:03:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('babystrangeloop', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('babystrangeloop', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('babystrangeloop', '
')And guess what? The price of oil is finally dropping too.
OK, so ICE Brent is still $118 and OPEC ORB is $113 but WTI dropped to $97
OK, so ICE Brent is still $116 and OPEC ORB is $113 but WTI dropped to $94
OK, so ICE Brent is still $105 and OPEC ORB is $103 but WTI dropped to $83
So is the SPR release the cause?
I don't see how it has anything to do with it -- seriously.
It was well under ONE DAY of global supply. And the price of crude rose for awhile after it came out, showing the market's complete disdain.
Recently, there has been SIGNIFICANT evidence of a global (especially western first world) economic slowdown. A slowdown which could easily become a recession, or at least minimal growth for many months -- or years.
The cumulative impact on crude's demand from this change in economic outlook COMPLETELY dwarfs the size of the SPR release.
And despite all the claims to the contrary, as a whole -- the oil market definitely DOES look ahead and tries to forecast likely future supply/demand balances, and then the price shifts accordingly.
I'm a guy who believes in the power of markets. I'm sure others, who believe primarily in the power of government, and want to suppress markets (like "evil" oil speculators for example) will have different views.
...
(FWIW, I don't see Chindia, the rest of the third world, or the lack of cheap crude oil sources changing, longer term. To me, when the price of crude drops far enough, good oil stocks become buying opportunities for the patient investor. Cornies will have a different view, of course).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
by babystrangeloop » Fri 12 Aug 2011, 07:58:34
That was a really, really long week. All the way from Friday July 01, 2011 to Friday August 12, 2011
Because now it's really after the SPR release and now the price of oil is actually rising.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]
US delivers 14.2 million barrels, 46%, of SPR crude sale: DOEMeghan Gordon / Platts / August 11, 2011
About 14.2 million barrels of light sweet crude has left US emergency stockpiles, almost half the amount put up for sale in June from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the Department of Energy said Thursday.
... Of the total 30.64 million barrels sold, 8.74 million barrels were delivered in July. Buyers plan to pick up the remaining 21.9 million barrels in August.
The third-ever presidentially directed SPR release was part of a coordinated move by the International Energy Agency to tap global reserves to make up for shortfalls in Libyan supplies. The US contributed about half of IEA's release of 60 million barrels. ...
46% being "about half"
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]
Barclays: First gains in crude oil prices since S&P’s downgrade of US long term debtCommodityOnline / August 11, 2011
... On the inventory front, the overall reduction in stocks continued despite the SPR releases continuing to work its way through the data. Last week saw another 2.5 mb of SPR release; yet the Crude Oil and products inventory overhang over the five-year average reduced by 5.5 mb with the bulk of the reduction coming from the crude inventory overhang, which fell by 4.2 mb to 14.9 mb.
The total SPR release over the last three weeks has now totalled 9.3 mb, and over the same time period, crude inventories have fallen by 2.5 mb, indicating the severe pace of tightening in the market had there not been an SPR release. ...
So anyone who questioned the impact of the SPR release and has provided no supporting evidence is a
liar.
