by MrBill » Fri 05 May 2006, 04:22:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:
In this thread -
ThreadAyoob brought up an interesting idea of what happens to crude oil prices as natgas becomes more expensive or unavailable. It seems to me that this happenstance could severely affect the already high price of crude as consumers (people and nations) switched from natgas to oil for their energy needs.
e.g. if my natgas bill gets too high, I yank my NG furnace and put in an oil one.
With Gazprom stating that they are almost out of NG, this seems like we will shortly have a lot of new competition from Europe for world oil supplies.
Thoughts ?
Sorry, who has said that Russia/Gasprom are almost out of NG?
Greatest Natural Gas Reserves by Country, 2005
Of course, natural gas and heating oil are direct substitutes as are propane and other fuels. You can assume if we run out of one that there will be a switch to the other, but as both are finite sources, it will not solve the underlying problem, just excelerate the decline in the next best alternative. Any marginal increase in demand would therefore cause a marginal increase in price and increase competition for scarce supplies by all users.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
