[Ranglepung]

The world GDP is 59 590 000 000 000 USD (source: CIA factbook)
The world produces 82 000 000 barrels a day (give or take).

After the math, it seems we use about 3,52% of the worlds total spending power on oil a year, with 70 USD a barrel.
It's probably less, as I'm not certain military funds are included in the GDP figure.

Isn't this a rather small figure when we consider the importance of the product?
How big a percentage is reasonable?
If we surmise that 10% should be spent, we get approximately 200 USD a barrel.
Is that unreasonable?
And is 10% enough to break the world economy?
It really shouldn't be, but I can see it happen, as that 7% difference has to come from somewhere.
And that won't be from the owners pockets.

[TorrKing]

Interesting thoughts, but I doubt this holds water. World GDP is a made up number and it includes things like services (at least GDP normally does). A lot of things are included that perhaps shouldn't be and some important things may be left out.

Without something to calculate against (we don't know of any competitors to the world as a whole, do we?), money value becomes an irrelevant size. While oil, on the other hand is a size more or less written in stone.

Torjus Gaaren

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ranglepung', 'T')he world GDP is 59 590 000 000 000 USD (source: CIA factbook)
The world produces 82 000 000 barrels a day (give or take).

After the math, it seems we use about 3,52% of the worlds total spending power on oil a year, with 70 USD a barrel.
It's probably less, as I'm not certain military funds are included in the GDP figure.

Isn't this a rather small figure when we consider the importance of the product?
How big a percentage is reasonable?
If we surmise that 10% should be spent, we get approximately 200 USD a barrel.
Is that unreasonable?
And is 10% enough to break the world economy?
It really shouldn't be, but I can see it happen, as that 7% difference has to come from somewhere.
And that won't be from the owners pockets.

[Doly]

I can see the terms you are thinking in. You think: if oil gets more expensive, up to 10%, maybe we won't be able to produce some luxury items (whatever comprises the top 7%), and that's unpleasant, but hardly the end of the world.

But that sort of reasoning is flawed. To put a clearer example: food production is a small percentage of GDP (about 6%, I think). But if food production disappeared, the rest of the GDP would disappear as well.

When oil gets more expensive, some manufacturing stops being profitable and is done less and less. This causes a reduction in real GDP (that is, GDP corrected for inflation). It's hard to calculate how much more expensive oil would need to be to cause a drastic reduction on global GDP. But you can be fairly sure that if oil went up to $200 a barrel, it wouldn't be 10% of the GDP. It would be more than that, maybe 20%. And that looks a lot closer to breaking the economy.

[Russian_Cowboy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ranglepung', 'T')he world GDP is 59 590 000 000 000 USD (source: CIA factbook)

[Ranglepung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')But that sort of reasoning is flawed. To put a clearer example: food production is a small percentage of GDP (about 6%, I think). But if food production disappeared, the rest of the GDP would disappear as well.

[killJOY]

Interpretation of figures whose authenticity you can't verify is a bitch.

It could mean simply that MORE of our GDP hinges on even less oil.

"Blood only makes up x% of our body mass, you know."

Or should we say, "Our body mass is dependent on a mere x% of blood."

Take away just a little bit of that x and you have hypovolemia.

The high prices recently are nothing. There hasn't been an actual shortfall of oil yet (as in 1979, when there was a 9% shortfall).

The fun has yet to begin. Let's see how that GDP does when x begins its long, unending decline.

Maybe everything will be fine.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ranglepung', 'T')he world GDP is 59 590 000 000 000 USD (source: CIA factbook)
The world produces 82 000 000 barrels a day (give or take).

After the math, it seems we use about 3,52% of the worlds total spending power on oil a year, with 70 USD a barrel.
It's probably less, as I'm not certain military funds are included in the GDP figure.

Isn't this a rather small figure when we consider the importance of the product?
How big a percentage is reasonable?
If we surmise that 10% should be spent, we get approximately 200 USD a barrel.
Is that unreasonable?
And is 10% enough to break the world economy?
It really shouldn't be, but I can see it happen, as that 7% difference has to come from somewhere.
And that won't be from the owners pockets.