$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')k guys and gals, listen up. I just finished looking at the Fed's weekly H.3 report, which you can find here:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/
Normally, this is a pretty boring report, but not this time. Scroll down to Table 2 and look at the last entry, for August 29. What do we find? This:
Date total(2) nonborrowed required
29p 43313 41754 42253
Look at that line real hard. Does anything strike you as unusual? Give up? What you are looking at is that nonborrowed reserves are LOWER than required reserves!. Notice the difference: $499 Million. If you scroll down to Table 3, which is the same data but adjusted for changes in reserve requirements, you will see the difference is EXACTLY $500 million dollars.
Hmm...where have we seen that $500 million figure before? Oh yeah, four banks borrowed $500 million each. The story we were told was that they wanted to 'remove the stigma of borrowing at the discount window' so others wouldn't feel so bad if they had to do it.
I call BULLSHIT on that story. Here is the way I see it. Somebody was in serious SHIT here, possibly one of these four, perhaps it was CFC, the ultimate destination of the funds (as per rumors). So, they had to go to the discount window. But what if the market sniffs out who it was and it gets plastered all over CNBC? Instant panic! The stock market would have sold off immediately. So, they hatched a plan. What if more than one bank gets a loan at the window, and you make this all public? You effectively hide the troubled institution, and no suspicions arise from keeping it all quiet. You even sell the story that it's a GOOD thing to borrow from the discount window.
I also wondered how often this happens so I downloaded the data from the St. Louis Fed website and ran a query. This showed the last time this happened was July 1988. It used to happen a lot before that time, presumably because the discount rate was lower than the Fed funds rate and banks just borrowed there instead. We also had the S&L debacle. So this is very unusual, especially now with the discount rate much higher than the Fed Funds Rate. Now, the only reason to use the discount window is if no bank will loan to you in the overnight market. Sure, the Fed can do repos, but what if you don't have the right collateral? The discount window accepts a greater variety of collateral, including CMOs, and boat loans.
Maybe I'm reading too much into this. Perhaps. What bothers me most is that the four banks claimed they didn't need the loans. That's bullshit, someone did need them because they were running low on reserves! Their claim that they could have gotten loans elsewhere is also bullshit. When the banking system does not have enough reserves to satisfy requirements, they can't loan out any money, and the CP market was essentially shut down!
So, what do you guys think? Am I losing it? Or is this some serious shit?






Roccman.
