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No Peak in Thefts

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby Ferretlover » Thu 03 Apr 2008, 14:01:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'W')ealth that pays for schools, infrastructure, salaries, waste water treatment, and, and, and....
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The agency is using the proceeds to help finance the $443.8 million San Juan-Chama drinking water project, which will divert water from the San Juan River to a treatment plant. "


.... never mind finding the money to replace infrastructure that is intentionally damaged prematurely or stolen for its scrap value like light poles, security cameras, fire hydrants, etc....


Or, when the droughts become a normal thing and the San Juan River dries up...
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 12 Apr 2008, 11:18:27

Copper Thieves Silence Tornado Siren
Theft Of $10 Worth Of Copper Puts Residents At Risk
POSTED: 4:36 pm CDT April 8, 2008 UPDATED: 10:49 am CDT April 9, 2008
JACKSON, Miss. -- Emergency officials said someone stole $10 worth of copper from a tornado siren that is right in front of a fire station on Watkins Drive.
Residents in the Northgate Subdivision were stunned to learn Tuesday that the copper theft was the reason the siren didn’t go off during Friday’s severe weather.
"No siren and no warning," said Northgate resident James Shelby, who was working in his yard when the storms hit. "I barely made it back in my house before the trees started falling." …
No warning
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 12 Apr 2008, 14:52:51

I agree with MrBill, rework is not productive. Countries that could have used their infrastructure as a base from which to improve living standards are instead trapped in a cycle of repeating the same stage of development. No-one profits in the end, even the thieves who steal and building contractors who make a living repairing the mess end up paying for it by living in it. Pitiful short term gain masks a great loss of opportunity.

The scavenging of infrastructure can set a country back many years if it becomes widespread. Hopefully the commodity bubble will deflate faster than average incomes fall and this business will become less lucrative. The incentive offered by the market today is frightening.
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby 35Kas » Sat 12 Apr 2008, 16:22:02

Broken window fallacy all over.

Spending money to "fix" broken things is not a boom to the economy, it is a drag, because all this does is re-allocate resources from improvement/discretionary spending, into maintenance. Same thing with war and disasters etc.

It may be a good thing for the weapons manufacturers or the repairman but whoever is paying for it is ALWAYS worse off because they "waste" resources that could have been used into something useful like better infrastructure or invest it into something promising. However a more accurate way of describing this is that wealth is transfered from people into the hands of the few and in the process wealth is destroyed.

Look at this example of wealth and production being represented simply by numbers in a year:
starting: 1000 +100/yr
disaster/war destroys: 200
Repair costs: 200

1000 - 200 -200 +100 = 700

Where wealth is tractors, houses, tools, factories, energy sources, agriculture, etc which is always increasing because we use energy from the sun which is effectively infinite and unused mineral resources buried in the ground.

Like Mr. Bill said, the world wars, but specially wars in general, are negative net producers. Resources/Energy that could have been used to make/create new/better things are diverted into producing weapons that have no intrinsic productive value (ie. a bomb is only useful to destroy) and end up destroying/damaging useful assets like people and infrastructure, like power plants, bridges, windmills, more efficient engines, etc.

In summary these things are all a big WASTE of resources/energy/people/time that could have been used much more productively in other things that would bring a positive net increase in quality of life, production, entertainment, efficiency, etc.
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby The_Virginian » Sun 13 Apr 2008, 01:56:10

WWII worked out pretty well for the USA because it achieved total victory without destruction in any of the then 48 states.

It also eliminated or hamstrung much of the USA's economic rivals (UK, Germany, France, Japan, Europe, Etc. Etc. Etc.)

Refugees bringing brain power (Einstein is only one example) came to the USA in search of safety and need for vengance against the Axis powers.It allowed the USA to completely set up the economic pre-conditions for trade and finance until the advent of the EURO.

WW II USED up a lot of the USA's Petroleum and natural resources. (Al, Zn, Fe etc. etc. etc.). And it set us up for the cold war....a further drain (Korea, Vietnam)


The current wars since WWII in are a net drain, and un-winnable by modern standards of warfare that we halfway adhere to. WAR CAN be an efficient use of resources on occasion...but it has to be done for two reasons...either (direct) survival (defensive!), or total dominance no matter who needs killing (offensive!).

Their is no in between...in between is a waste for ALL sides.
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 13 Apr 2008, 02:02:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'G')un turrets on one's house are starting to sound more attractive...
Won't do a damn thing unless there's someone manning them. And that means lotsa money.

What I don't understand is why surveillance isn't used these days. Just stick little networked wireless computers in the abandoned properties. Is $40-60/year too much to insure abandoned houses don't incur thousands of dollars worth of damages? The same goes for public works I imagine... I suppose this is just a result of inequalities manifesting themselves.
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby 35Kas » Sun 13 Apr 2008, 02:50:47

War can be good for a nation if it cripples it rivals and enables that nation to take over wealth. However, this process destroys a lot of wealth and the whole world would be better off if instead of investing in weapons and destruction, wealth was invested in wealth creating projects like research, life improvement, etc.

All the wealth ever invested in war has ever only destroyed and wasted wealth (resources, time, people, energy) that could have been put to good use.

Just a process where some people waste a lot of wealth in order to gain power/status. Thats all its ever been about, since we were underdeveloped primates, and thats what it will ever be about until we grow ever more powerful and end up all dead. Monkeys raping/killing monkeys in order to gain reproductive advantages and destroying the environmental wealth around them as they go (forests, livestock, mineral and energy resources, ecosystem, etc).
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby cube » Sun 13 Apr 2008, 07:18:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('35Kas', 'W')ar can be good for a nation if it cripples it rivals and enables that nation to take over wealth. However, this process destroys a lot of wealth and the whole world would be better off if instead of investing in weapons and destruction, wealth was invested in wealth creating projects like research, life improvement, etc......
For the Roman empire yeah I guess that made a lot of sense, but Americans were never good at profiting from wars. With the exception of the Revolutionary war, Mexican war, Spanish war ALL wars America ever fought was a net loss IMHO. Hell I think Abraham Lincoln should of just let the Confederates secede from the union, honestly. You don't have to politically control a piece of land to profit from it. Trade is more profitable then war.

A 2nd observation I've noticed is each successive war that America chooses to fight seems to be getting more questionable. The current misadventure in Iraq when viewed in a strategic / Machiavellian way is the dumbest war America ever signed up for. The cost to benefit ratio is ridiculous beyond sanity. It's like committing financial suicide and handing over the title of world super power to the next guy standing in line for free.
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby Gerben » Sun 13 Apr 2008, 09:21:33

The US didn't profit from it's wars because they chose not to. They could have enslaved the Iraqi's and taken their best lands, but they chose not to. Slave labor is a sustainable form of energy. We will soon see more profitable wars when we shake off the luxury if high morals.
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby cube » Sun 13 Apr 2008, 09:26:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'T')he US didn't profit from it's wars because they chose not to. They could have enslaved the Iraqi's and taken their best lands, but they chose not to. Slave labor is a sustainable form of energy. We will soon see more profitable wars when we shake off the luxury if high morals.
yes and no.

It's kinda difficult to profit from a war if you're firing $10,000 missiles at somebody because he's holding a $100 rifle. Military historians 100 years in the future will look back and shake their heads in utter disbelief. Maybe America will become the new France. You know ---> the nation most infamous for it's military blunders. *facepalm*
///
addon: even the "Maginot Line" looks smarter than America's current Iraqi strategy. Now that's embarrassing.
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sun 13 Apr 2008, 10:22:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'G')un turrets on one's house are starting to sound more attractive...
Won't do a damn thing unless there's someone manning them. And that means lotsa money.

Not necessarily for the future envisioned here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '[')What I don't understand is why surveillance isn't used these days. Just stick little networked wireless computers in the abandoned properties. Is $40-60/year too much to insure abandoned houses don't incur thousands of dollars worth of damages?


I would suspect it would depend on how many times the little network thingys were stolen from the abandoned properties! :lol:
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 00:11:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'G')un turrets on one's house are starting to sound more attractive...
Won't do a damn thing unless there's someone manning them. And that means lotsa money.
Not necessarily for the future envisioned here.
Ah, well then, in that future your turrets are likely to become scrap metal thanks to much cheaper RPGs. :-D $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '[')What I don't understand is why surveillance isn't used these days. Just stick little networked wireless computers in the abandoned properties. Is $40-60/year too much to insure abandoned houses don't incur thousands of dollars worth of damages?
I would suspect it would depend on how many times the little network thingys were stolen from the abandoned properties! :lol:Ah, yes. Because if someone enters the home the police wouldn't be alerted. :lol: They're networked for a reason.... :-D
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby Ferretlover » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 00:37:27

No fair picking on my gun turret...and with RPGs! [smilie=5eek.gif]
And, I'll bet someone, somewhere knows how to get around those wireless thingys! I'm sure there are people whose entire reason for living is to hack into everything! :P
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 06:04:55

Fer sure, but they'll probably be doing more interesting work than helping people scavenge housing for stuff to sell on the black market.
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 15:29:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'W')hat I don't understand is why surveillance isn't used these days. Just stick little networked wireless computers in the abandoned properties. Is $40-60/year too much to insure abandoned houses don't incur thousands of dollars worth of damages?

Local government does not have the money. This is not going to be done by the same offices now cutting staff and services to avoid bankruptcy. Empty houses don't pay tax, you see? Affording them protection for the benefit of a bank at remaining taxpayers' expense is not going to happen. Whoever foreclosed can pay for private security out of their own pocket. If they are not doing it, maybe there is no net gain.
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 18:24:59

It shouldn't be up to local government, since the builder, and whoever owns the house after they do, are the ones who should be concerned, at least initially, about houses being looted. If the builder/whoever doesn't install surveillance at around ~.1% of the overall construction costs, and down the lines ends up loosing thousands or tens of thousands in re-purposed building materials, then that's their goof.

Granted, it would be nice if government stepped in to help protect assets, but unlike other governments, the level of corruption present in ours precludes this IMO. Not to say that other governments aren't corrupt, just that they aren't as corrupt as ours. :-D
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 18:27:58

Sure, houses have alarm systems as standard. It's just that no-one reacts to them even when a neighbourhood is fully occupied, and once they are deactivated, that's that. I doubt foreclosed people or key mailers bother setting it when they leave either.
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 03:50:49

Alarms are for the occupants AFAIK. These would be used before someone bought the house, or after it was foreclosed.
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 04:26:24

When we lived in the Ukraine many years ago, and we were being targeted by organized criminals, the first thing they stole was the surveillance camera! Needless to say relying on the police was an exercise in hope over experience. The same when our apartment in Moscow was robbed during the day. Despite a high security door they got in quite easily. They found everything. They looked in places I would not even think to hide stuff? A cautionary lesson for anyone considering storing precious metals at home to think about. We filed a report with the police for insurance reasons, but with about 11.000 burglaries per year on average it was clear that the underpaid and understaffed police simply did not have the resources to deal with the crime problem.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')City Crime Statistics

Jan. 1 - Dec. 28*

Crime: Total - Solved

Murder: 782 - 431

Assault: 1,416 - 911

Robbery: 13,394 - 4,611

Rape: 327 - 243

Theft (total): 47,449 - 12,631

Apartment burglaries: 11,072 - 860

Car theft: 9,947 - 250

*Statistics for September were not available because the police's chief directorate is still collecting numbers from several precincts for that month. Compiled figures for car accidents, suicides, missing persons and discovered bodies were also unavailable.


Source: Moscow police
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Re: No Peak in Thefts

Unread postby Ferretlover » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 09:41:35

Many years ago, when we lived in Manhattan, KS (Go Wildcats!), there was a rash of burglaries. It seems the criminals took metal detectors with them and were able to find things that had been hidden quite easily.
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