[Don_Quichote]

Is that without the decline of the Cantarrel complex and the "possible" decline
of Ghawar ?

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Don_Quichote', 'I')s that without the decline of the Cantarrel complex and the "possible" decline
of Ghawar ?

[linlithgowoil]

i thought the general consensus was that by mid-late 2007 we'd be in big trouble? until then, we should be pumping around 83-84 million barrels a day on the plateau.

looks like my plan to be debt free by 2010 has failed then. thing is, i'll likely be bankrupt within 6-9 months anyway as i have no job after end of august. oh well.

[Sys1]

Actually, big troubles will come this year. 2006 if we have "luck".

Btw, get debt free is really useless. Do the opposite, as capitalism is doomed. You'll need a lot of stuffs to build a community self efficient. If you just plan to get debt free, you act like someone believing government will find solutions. Their solutions today are drill Alaska, make war in Iraq and free tax oil for business SUVs. As you can see, they are just insane.

There'll be a massive crash of world economy. No matter what are your debts, surviving will be a challenge.

[Leanan]

You know, that thought has crossed my mind. If the economy collapses, all of us who did the right thing - saved our money, stayed out of debt, invested in Roth IRAs and deferred compensation plans - will be screwed. Heck, even if we just have really bad inflation, spending your money immediately is the smart thing to do, as long as you are buying something that will be useful.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')tw, get debt free is really useless. Do the opposite, as capitalism is doomed.

[Leanan]

The thing is, many of us will be "evicted" anyway. If you can't afford gas for your car, who cares if it's repossessed? If your home or condo is so far away from your job you have to move, and everyone else is doing the same thing so you can't sell, does it matter if your mortgage is paid off or not?

[No-Oil]

I believe a combined approach to your finances is the right answer.
FWIW I have transfered my mortgage to a 15yr fixed term with the intention of repaying it over 10 if possible, even if I lose the ability to pay later, the prior overpayment will proviode a buffer. The amount is low, so once my other debts are cleared by the end of the year, any work will cover the mortage payments.

Clear all debt that you can, & then use the excess cash to buy useful things for the future, including self sufficiency systems & trading goods.
For self sufficiency, I'm building a small battery bank that can be used to run my central heating system electrics, a water storage & cleaning/filtration system. Remember you can live for a month without food & only days without clean water ! Oh & build at least a months food reserve !

Back to the subject at hand, I read an article the other day ( http://321energy.com/editorials/rubin/rubin041505.html ) that showed the authors calculated predictions on depletion, assuming his figures are correct & an avaerage 84mbpd consumption, it equates to reductions in world supply as follows;-
2006 = 4days
2007 = 1week
2008 = 2weeks
2010 = 39days

The 2010 figure is interesting, if correct, it means knocking over a months worth of supply out of the global demand & that is at todays consumption rates or a reduction to 75mbpd i.e. a 10% reduction in consumption. That is still using all the oil available on a daily basis ! Bet the price goes up more than 10% in the same period !!!!!

[OilyMon]

Having studied the graphs of the other major peak in oil production history, I have little faith that an increase in production is going to do anything to offset the decline that is going to occu, or that is already occuring. Even if it does, what difference does it make if peak oil comes now or in 5 years? Sure you may have less debt or your house paid for, but the employees of the bank are going to be going through the same tough times as you are. If the consequences are as far reaching as they are predicted to be, who's going to worry about the fact that you owed somebody money in the old system?

[Leanan]

Exactly. If you're in a position to pay off your mortgage and eliminate all your debt, fine, go ahead and do it. It might work out. But if you're not, don't stay up nights worrying about it.

Me, I don't have any real debt, but I am seriously considering cutting back on my IRA and deferred comp contributions. I have a feeling I will never see that money. Or if I do, it won't be worth much. I won't eliminate them altogether, since we may have a soft landing, but right now, it might be better to use that money to invest in tools or books or solar panels.

[tmazanec1]

No-oil:
I have read the report. What I disagree with is their assumption that depletion will be steady. The link states that the water cut in Ghawar is rising. You can only assume depletion will be horizontal by assumming Saudi Arabia does not fall off a cliff. My guess is that oil will cost more, perhaps a lot more, than $100/barrel by 2010!

[No-Oil]

tmazanec1;

I hear where your coming from, that is why I said "assuming his figures are correct". As far as I can tell from the limited info I can find on Ghawar, it is broken down into 4 main producing zones that are geologically distinct & covered by 100's of wells. The water cut news has not mentioned how many wells or zones are affected, so the info is unreliable with no comparative data to compare it to.

[RobintheDruid]

Hey Leanan, I've got plenty of debt. I could enslave my soul working all hours in a factory to pay for it, but I'm not going to. I'm going to go back to how I originally started off gardening instead. That is sell the van, sell the power tools and just do small time gardening cycling round with hand tools in my backpack.

Downsizing is the key I think. The less reliant you are on 'the state' or on gas-guzzling vehicles or machines, the better.

[Phetro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RobintheDruid', 'H')ey Leanan, I've got plenty of debt. I could enslave my soul working all hours in a factory to pay for it, but I'm not going to. I'm going to go back to how I originally started off gardening instead. That is sell the van, sell the power tools and just do small time gardening cycling round with hand tools in my backpack.

Downsizing is the key I think. The less reliant you are on 'the state' or on gas-guzzling vehicles or machines, the better.

[Tanada]

The thing to remember is Need and Want are not the same thing, all people really need are clothing, shelter, sustenance, and family/friends. Most want a whole lot more though.

[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Don_Quichote', 'I')s that without the decline of the Cantarrel complex and the "possible" decline
of Ghawar ?

[Dan1195]

Its fairly obviously those dollar estimates with those shortfalls are way underdone. Price has already been to $58 a barell with no shortfalls. 1 mbd shortfall would prob take prices north of $70 potentially much higher with so much speculation.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'T')he thing to remember is Need and Want are not the same thing, all people really need are clothing, shelter, sustenance, and family/friends. Most want a whole lot more though.