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new oil discoveries vs. depletion

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

new oil discoveries vs. depletion

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 11 Aug 2005, 19:06:32

does anyone know what the new discoveries will produce in 06 and what the decline rate will be for existing ones ? and what the shortfall will be ?
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Re: new oil discoveries vs. depletion

Unread postby gt1370a » Thu 11 Aug 2005, 21:02:07

No.
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Re: new oil discoveries vs. depletion

Unread postby Chris_B » Thu 11 Aug 2005, 22:38:33

We all ponder the same thing.
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Re: new oil discoveries vs. depletion

Unread postby clv101 » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 03:35:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armegeddon', 'd')oes anyone know what the new discoveries will produce in 06 and what the decline rate will be for existing ones ? and what the shortfall will be ?


Here's an interview with Chris Skrebowski discussing just that: http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/379

Here's a presentation by Chris Skrebowski with numbers showing new production coming on line and the rates of decline of existing fields: There's also MP3 audio of the talk: http://www.odac-info.org/PeakOilUKConfe ... edings.htm

And here's some comment by Richard Heinberg:
http://www.energybulletin.net/5686.html
"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe
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Re: new oil discoveries vs. depletion

Unread postby zceb90 » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 06:49:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armegeddon', 'd')oes anyone know what the new discoveries will produce in 06 and what the decline rate will be for existing ones ? and what the shortfall will be ?


Another presentation by Chris Skrebowski entitled 'Where Reality Meets Theory' is located here (download 'Communication PPT file): ASPO 2005 Depletion Workshop Proceedings .

Chris' presentation at this workshop was similar to his earlier (Edinburgh) presentation for which clv101 has provided the link higher up this thread.
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Re: new oil discoveries vs. depletion

Unread postby nth » Sun 14 Aug 2005, 05:29:44

Hrm... I didn't know OPEC will have that much increase. My sources contradict Chris.

Anyways, the non-opec should be right. I like to point out that these numbers are optimistic. They are based on projected production. 2005, we saw many oil fields failed to achieve projected targets. But Azerbaijian significantly exceeded projections. The only bright spot that I heard for 2005, besides Africa.

Disappointments in Russia, Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, etc....
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