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Mr Bill speaks out

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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby max_power29 » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 07:38:31

The root of it all I think is the constant human striving to get something for nothing.

I'm no better. I would love to get everything for nothing too :(
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby FatherOfTwo » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 17:14:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'A')side from protecting widows and orphans the system now tries to protect every investor from making their own mistakes.

Well yes there is truth to that, but legislation is also rarely (never?) crafted without heavy involvement from outside parties, and more often than not it is the well connected and rich that influence that legislation. Case in point, I excitedly thought I was about to get in on a private placement for a new Alberta based o&g company with very promising technology. Here I was already to sign over my cheque when my broker asked for my proof that I was an accredited investor. (Basically - prove you earn in excess of $200K/yr or have assests in excess of $1million.) Well, I’m not quite there yet so I’m on the outside looking in, even though I had already met the minimum purchase requirements… so what the??
The standard line is that private placements are risky and they are protecting us. Well I think that is hogwash. All you need is an example like Enron. If “rookie” investors can lose their shirts on Enron and not get any compensation, I should be able to lose my shirt (or make a bundle) on a private placement.
How am I not supposed to view this as the rich only letting the rich in on these deals?
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby mmasters » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 17:52:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') know it is popular to hate big business, big government, big oil and big brother. But let's be fair. Who creates big government for example except the voters and their collective actions over time.

Sure, lets be fair to the elite because after all we live in a true democracy.

:roll:
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby cube » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 18:05:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_power29', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '.')..
That's the Long and Short of It :-D


I don't refer to ordinary "speculators", when I'm discussing market manipulators. Only the "chosen" ones who have been granted virtually unlimited leverage have the power to manipulate the markets. a lot of markets are smaller than everybody imagines too.
Is there some form of "manipulation" in the markets? Perhaps yes a little? However I disagree with you max_power29....that's not where the money is.

What is the old saying? "money makes money".

If I ever had to give a lecture about investing I'd smash everybody across their skulls until they get that ridiculous idea out of their heads. A more accurate saying would be:

"The more money you have, the more money you can lose."

You can Tattoo that message to the back of your eyelids to avoid forgetting. Having money does not make a company (now matter how big) immune to bankruptcy nor does it guarantee profits. Take a look at Amaranth

At the end of the day it is superior discipline and strategy that makes money...not money. The "market manipulators" you speak of max_power29 make their money thru superior advantages like connections and information....not outright manipulation. Perhaps these advantages are unfair or even sometimes illegal! Woes to those who believe the financial markets are a level playing field. 8)

OPEC production quotas are probably the closest thing to manipulation but even they don't have absolute power. NOBODY does. In fact OPEC quite often has great difficulty in fixing the market. Take for example the recent slide in oil prices to $50.....I don't think OPEC wanted that.
Last edited by cube on Mon 29 Jan 2007, 23:54:09, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 18:14:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') know it is popular to hate big business, big government, big oil and big brother. But let's be fair. Who creates big government for example except the voters and their collective actions over time.

Sure, lets be fair to the elite because after all we live in a true democracy.

:roll:


Thanks, McMasters, This is just the kind of tinfoil hat ,fantasy prone nonsense that people should be called on.
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 18:18:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_power29', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'A')re you a forensic accountant? If not, don't trifle with me.


Come on now Threadbear, I quite clearly stated that I was mediocre at reading statements.


I would reccomend checking out Catherine Austin Fitt's work.
She is kick ass and credible.


Yeay Catherine!!! I saw her speak just over a month ago, on Salt Spring island. She's my hero. :)

Drew--"Don't trifle with me". Gotta love that high handed attitude. Truly espresso inspired arrogance of the first order. :oops:
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 18:31:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'A')side from protecting widows and orphans the system now tries to protect every investor from making their own mistakes.

Well yes there is truth to that, but legislation is also rarely (never?) crafted without heavy involvement from outside parties, and more often than not it is the well connected and rich that influence that legislation. Case in point, I excitedly thought I was about to get in on a private placement for a new Alberta based o&g company with very promising technology. Here I was already to sign over my cheque when my broker asked for my proof that I was an accredited investor. (Basically - prove you earn in excess of $200K/yr or have assests in excess of $1million.) Well, I’m not quite there yet so I’m on the outside looking in, even though I had already met the minimum purchase requirements… so what the??
The standard line is that private placements are risky and they are protecting us. Well I think that is hogwash. All you need is an example like Enron. If “rookie” investors can lose their shirts on Enron and not get any compensation, I should be able to lose my shirt (or make a bundle) on a private placement.
How am I not supposed to view this as the rich only letting the rich in on these deals?


Amen. And that's exactly what they mean by the rich getting richer. Isn't it Alberta that's responsible for all the natural gas about the responsibility of the individual, to pull himself up by the bootstraps, bla blah blah. But when it comes to including the average Joe in initial offerings or private placements, they get all precious about protecting Joe. I am so abundantly sick of these people.
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 18:35:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_power29', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '.')..
That's the Long and Short of It :-D
8)

OPEC production quotas are probably the closest thing to manipulation but even they don't have absolute power. NOBODY does. In fact OPEC quite often has great difficulty in fixing the market. Take for example the recent slide in oil prices to $50.....I don't think OPEC wanted that.


The House of Saud did, but then it's not always who you know but what you know. How did this escape you, Cube?
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 03:45:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') know it is popular to hate big business, big government, big oil and big brother. But let's be fair. Who creates big government for example except the voters and their collective actions over time.

Sure, lets be fair to the elite because after all we live in a true democracy.

:roll:


Thanks, McMasters, This is just the kind of tinfoil hat ,fantasy prone nonsense that people should be called on.


Hey Jack, I am alright. Don't worry about me. While you're bitching and moaning about life being unfair and how it is all the government's fault along with big business others around you are investing wisely and making money. Tinfoil hat, fantasy prone nonsense? I am the one who is in these markets everyday risking real money. Learn how the game is played and then it won't be such a mystery to you.

MMasters. From what I gathered you are now 27-years old and yet to have claimed to work in the bowels of prestigious investment banks and trading floors (plural), and therefore know how the game works? Well, either you did not go to university or you worked a very short period on Wall Street. But either way I doubt you had access to decision makers or inside knowledge. Pehaps instead of attacking me day after day you should impress us with your knowledge of finance and banking instead.

I did get a chance to look at Behind the Looking Glass, but not all of it as I only could download it at home. From my first glance it is very Micheal Moore-esque. A lot of smoking guns, but no substance. Before I pass judgement I would like to see the whole presentation, but if you start with sugar import duties as proof of a larger conspiracy, as in the first few slides, all I can say is, very amateurish.

Father of Two wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he standard line is that private placements are risky and they are protecting us. Well I think that is hogwash. All you need is an example like Enron. If “rookie” investors can lose their shirts on Enron and not get any compensation, I should be able to lose my shirt (or make a bundle) on a private placement.


Private placements are exactly that. Private. Certain conditions apply. In general, no more than 300 investors are allowed in. A minimum investment of $150.000. And investors have to prove that they are professional investors with substantial means, and are therefore not owed the same duty of care as non-professional investors. Conditions vary by jurisdiction. A private mutual fund in BVI can have no more than 100 investors for example.

All you need is someone risking their life-savings and losing them and then the hue and cry goes up about brokers cheating people and not properly outlining all the investment risks. Of course, the investment advisor should have superior knowledge. I expect my mechanic to know how to fix my car better than I can as well.

Heck, even when the sums are large enough and the lawyers get involve they can still manage to prove that investment banks are somehow smarter than professional investment managers in a pension fund. Orange County? Gimme a break. They all know the risks they are taking, but when it blows-up in their face they have to blame somebody.

So yes, junior exploration companies are risky. Remember BRE-X? Unless you can afford to lose $150.000 on the spin of a wheel it is not the place for the faint of heart. But again, do not blame the system. Such rules and regulations were brought in by popular request by the investing public AFTER crooked stock market operators burned the widows, orphans and intellectually challenged. Greed is a powerful sales tool.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 11:42:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')MMasters. From what I gathered you are now 27-years old and yet to have claimed to work in the bowels of prestigious investment banks and trading floors (plural), and therefore know how the game works? Well, either you did not go to university or you worked a very short period on Wall Street. But either way I doubt you had access to decision makers or inside knowledge. Pehaps instead of attacking me day after day you should impress us with your knowledge of finance and banking instead.

Well I can't claim to know how it all works from being at a Goldman or Merrill so no. However being at those places and seeing the action has taken a lot of mystery out of things. I do have a degree in computer science, FWIW, and paid for it by market trading. Anyways I've looked to validate the accuracy of the historical side of things, cases like the money masters and the creature from jekyll island (book). Through inside knowledge I can confirm aspects of it. Also a little with decision makers because I've grown up around some. I have successfully introduced a number of people in finance with up to 20-30 years experience to the alternative perspective. Anyways, I think you should take a serious objective look at economic history.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') did get a chance to look at Behind the Looking Glass, but not all of it as I only could download it at home. From my first glance it is very Micheal Moore-esque. A lot of smoking guns, but no substance. Before I pass judgement I would like to see the whole presentation, but if you start with sugar import duties as proof of a larger conspiracy, as in the first few slides, all I can say is, very amateurish.

It's ok, I didn't post it. But may be better to judge the whole thing instead of the cover, it's thought to reach a larger audience so it starts with some simple concepts and builds.
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 11:48:59

Yes, I want to read and digest it all. There is no use dismissing it out of hand. That would just weaken my position. Of course, when I get home at night about the last thing I feel like doing is plowing through a 65-page+ power point presentation to make notes or to prepare a rebuttal. Oh well.

Thanks for the comments. It does get pretty adversarial in here sometimes, and it is hard to remember the point is to talk about common issues like hydro-carbon depletion.
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby drew » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 19:43:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'D')rew--"Don't trifle with me". Gotta love that high handed attitude. Truly espresso inspired arrogance of the first order. :oops:


At least you have a sense of humour!

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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby firestarter » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 20:24:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')
I did get a chance to look at Behind the Looking Glass, but not all of it as I only could download it at home. From my first glance it is very Micheal Moore-esque. A lot of smoking guns, but no substance. Before I pass judgement I would like to see the whole presentation, but if you start with sugar import duties as proof of a larger conspiracy, as in the first few slides, all I can say is, very amateurish.




I linked it. It is not amateurish at all. Actually it's very well done, considering the complexity of the issue he attempts to dissect, and the broad audience he hopes to reach. As a trader, yourself, I figured you'd benefit from it more than the average Joe, and could likewise critique--for our benefit also-- where warranted. While Byrne doesn't occupy quite the stature of a Warren Buffet, he isn't exactly a lightweight either.



Patrick Byrne CEO of Overstock.com and writer/narrator of Behind The Looking Glass
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 03:35:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')
I did get a chance to look at Behind the Looking Glass, but not all of it as I only could download it at home. From my first glance it is very Micheal Moore-esque. A lot of smoking guns, but no substance. Before I pass judgement I would like to see the whole presentation, but if you start with sugar import duties as proof of a larger conspiracy, as in the first few slides, all I can say is, very amateurish.




I linked it. It is not amateurish at all. Actually it's very well done, considering the complexity of the issue he attempts to dissect, and the broad audience he hopes to reach. As a trader, yourself, I figured you'd benefit from it more than the average Joe, and could likewise critique--for our benefit also-- where warranted. While Byrne doesn't occupy quite the stature of a Warren Buffet, he isn't exactly a lightweight either.



Patrick Byrne CEO of Overstock.com and writer/narrator of Behind The Looking Glass


So then I must have gotten mixed-up then. mmasters posted The Money Masters, which is a different presentation than this one? Okay, then I really need to go completely through it before I comment further. Thanks for the link. Cheers.
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby mmasters » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 13:09:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')o then I must have gotten mixed-up then. mmasters posted The Money Masters, which is a different presentation than this one? Okay, then I really need to go completely through it before I comment further. Thanks for the link. Cheers.

Money masters isn't a presentation but a documentary.

See http://www.themoneymasters.com

or search it on youtube, video.google
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 13:37:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')o then I must have gotten mixed-up then. mmasters posted The Money Masters, which is a different presentation than this one? Okay, then I really need to go completely through it before I comment further. Thanks for the link. Cheers.

Money masters isn't a presentation but a documentary.

See http://www.themoneymasters.com

or search it on youtube, video.google
thanks. will do. cheers
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 16:29:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') know it is popular to hate big business, big government, big oil and big brother. But let's be fair. Who creates big government for example except the voters and their collective actions over time.

Sure, lets be fair to the elite because after all we live in a true democracy.

:roll:


Thanks, McMasters, This is just the kind of tinfoil hat ,fantasy prone nonsense that people should be called on.


Hey Jack, I am alright. Don't worry about me. While you're bitching and moaning about life being unfair and how it is all the government's fault along with big business others around you are investing wisely and making money. Tinfoil hat, fantasy prone nonsense? I am the one who is in these markets everyday risking real money. Learn how the game is played and then it won't be such a mystery to you.

.


Who is bitching and moaning about life, MrBill? We are just pointing out some of the loopy assumptions that underly your view of the economic-political realm. Your skills as a financial wizard are limited if you have faulty knowledge or flawed perspective, about what power is and how it is used and misused. You are like a gifted architect/engineer who doesn't understand the ground he's building on.
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 01 Feb 2007, 04:49:10

threadbare wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho is bitching and moaning about life, MrBill? We are just pointing out some of the loopy assumptions that underly your view of the economic-political realm. Your skills as a financial wizard are limited if you have faulty knowledge or flawed perspective, about what power is and how it is used and misused. You are like a gifted architect/engineer who doesn't understand the ground he's building on.


That is a good analogy by the way. ; - )

I think we have to step back and regain some objectivity. Let us not view the whole world through a US-concentric lens. America has some problems that, if not unique, are at least acute there like excessive executive pay that is now 800 times more than the minimum wage versus some 80 times some 30-years ago. Those kind of abuses of power cannot and should not be defended.

Also, if American voters want to focus on social-political issues come election time instead of economic-political issues that is their right, I suppose? Who am I to doubt that Hilary Clinton will not solve America's problems of its future unfunded liabilities?

You're Canadian and so am I. We can readily see that some of the worst abuses of power in America are not nearly as acute in Canada. Many Canadian politicians come not from a monied elite, but from surprisingly humble origins. I think their views more closely reflect the average Canadians point of view even though Canadians still love to bitch about politics as much as anyone.

As for political scandals we have had enough of them, but when I compare them to other countries political abuses of power and corruption are exposed sooner and the punishment is meted out quicker. Many a politician has seen the end of their career over fiddling travel expenses or patronage, and when I compare that to many countries, not even large scale fraud goes punished and is instead seen as a political attack instead. Simply, Canadians, like Scandinavians, hold their political leaders to a much higher standard.

Feel free to disagree with me, but I have lived and worked in a lot of different countries with different political systems, and although I criticize Ottawa, too, I also see that our political landscape is a gentler, kinder place, so to speak. Of course, the taxes are far too high, but that is a different debate.

So even comparing Canada's market economy with greater social protection and more generous welfare support to the USA we can see that Canada looks more like the EU's social-democratic model than the US' free market economy. It could be a whole lot better. But it does not have some of the worst short-comings either.

Because I have no understanding of power and how it is used and abused I can only use comparative analysis. But thankfully some wealth & quality of life measurements do support some of my anecdotal insights. Also the good folks at Transparency International tend to support my ideas on wealth & poverty of nations and their correlation with poor governance, excessive bureaucracy, corruption and incompetence.

Rating Countries for the Happiness Factor

That is why I am working on my PhD and write articles on risk management in emerging markets. Because I see a direct link between poverty and poor governance. Again using comparative analysis I can compare and contrast Singapore, Taiwan, S. Korea and Hong Kong whos economies have grown 12-20 notches in country rankings in the past 20-years versus countries like Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria and the Ukraine who have dropped 12 to 23 notches over the same period of time.

Source: World Bank based on 5-year average of GDP in constant dollars.

Spot the oil producers with high levels of corruption and compare them to business friendly governments that focus on manufacturing exports. All have their problems, none are perfect, but only by using objective measurements and hard data can you seperate out fact from opinion.

But feel free to disagree with me. I am sure those rankings have nothing to do with the use and abuse of power in those countries, and are more likely due to some other conspiracies, neo-colonialism or the downside of globalization. I am sure there are many alternative explanations? ; - )
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby shakespear1 » Thu 01 Feb 2007, 06:09:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Spot the oil producers with high levels of corruption and compare them to business friendly governments that focus on manufacturing exports. All have their problems, none are perfect, but only by using objective measurements and hard data can you separate out fact from opinion. ')

Completely agree with this. This is what I have seen in the Oil Patch. Take Argentina. Sure it had/has Oil&Gas but it also has/had other industries which were not completely tied to the O&G business. Socialy is is rather balanced. Today less so but then no one is perfect. Compare this to Venezuela and you see just the opposite. Lots of poor, small middle class in a country full of Oil&Gas. :) :)
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Re: Mr Bill speaks out

Unread postby shakespear1 » Thu 01 Feb 2007, 06:19:44

Wow, it is interesting that Danemark came out on top of the most happy places. Why? Because I recall reading many years ago in US press criticism of their social wealth fare system. There was belief amongst US economic experts that they would eventually need to abandon it if they were to survive.

Dire forecasts were also directed toward Malaysia and it seems it is also holding up.

I guess the moral of the story is that if you care for your own you will be a winner in the end. :) :)
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