by DesuMaiden » Sat 10 Jan 2015, 12:29:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', 'T')he greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
Dr. Bartlett got it right. RIP Al
And this shortcoming might result in our extinction if we keep on exponentially growing in consumption and population.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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DesuMaiden
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by dolanbaker » Sat 10 Jan 2015, 18:53:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', 'T')he greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
Dr. Bartlett got it right. RIP Al
And this shortcoming might result in our extinction if we keep on exponentially growing in consumption and population.
Population growth will continue while the resources are available to sustain that growth, recent population counts appear to show that the exponential growth has stopped and growth is starting to take a more linear track.
But that is a global figure, if you look closer at local trends, many areas still have an exponential growth pattern and others are either static or declining. Recent migration has muddied the figures somewhat as without migration, many western European countries would actually have declining populations.
The planet is far from a level playing field, countries that have seen the largest population growth in the past couple of decades are the ones that will suffer catastrophic consequences first in the event of a major reduction in that countries ability to feed its people. That also means that there are many places in the world that are a VERY long away from suffering a catastrophic collapse of any kind, at most they'll be forced to share their commute to work.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
by DesuMaiden » Sat 10 Jan 2015, 21:01:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', 'T')he greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
Dr. Bartlett got it right. RIP Al
And this shortcoming might result in our extinction if we keep on exponentially growing in consumption and population.
Population growth will continue while the resources are available to sustain that growth, recent population counts appear to show that the exponential growth has stopped and growth is starting to take a more linear track.
But that is a global figure, if you look closer at local trends, many areas still have an exponential growth pattern and others are either static or declining. Recent migration has muddied the figures somewhat as without migration, many western European countries would actually have declining populations.
The planet is far from a level playing field, countries that have seen the largest population growth in the past couple of decades are the ones that will suffer catastrophic consequences first in the event of a major reduction in that countries ability to feed its people. That also means that there are many places in the world that are a VERY long away from suffering a catastrophic collapse of any kind, at most they'll be forced to share their commute to work.
You are right. The collapse will be worst in some places than others.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
by DesuMaiden » Sat 10 Jan 2015, 21:40:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') think the US, New Zealand, Australia will be mostly fine while Europe, Middle East, China, Central America, will be very bad on the down slope of peak oil.
Why do you say that?
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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by DesuMaiden » Sat 10 Jan 2015, 23:51:18
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') think the US, New Zealand, Australia will be mostly fine while Europe, Middle East, China, Central America, will be very bad on the down slope of peak oil.
Why do you say that?
Positive proportion of arable land to population, called Real Density.
This place lists all 195 countries, So the US is among the best 5% (number 12) Australia is Number 1, Russia 6, New Zealand is 29.
Wouldn't want to be in China 124, Britain 130, Japan 166, South Korea 167 or anywhere in the Middle East. Is it any surprise that Egypt 165 is in a rebellion. Too many people, too hot, and ex-OPEC.
Population density is also very important. Countries with very high population density will also be in trouble when peak oil strikes because there would be less room for growing food. Let me repeat what Michael Ruppert said "Local food production is perhaps key to survival in the collapse of industrial civilization". Canada should also be a good place for surviving peak oil because it has a low population density and a good Real Density ratio.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
by DesuMaiden » Sun 11 Jan 2015, 00:10:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'I') read somewhere that various U.S. towns and cities only have a few days' worth of food, medicine, fuel, etc., due to a JIT system. The same likely applies to much of the global economy.
What does JIT stand for? Also the collapse of industrial civilization would mean food supplies will be cut off from pretty much everywhere.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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by DesuMaiden » Sun 11 Jan 2015, 00:27:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')esu, you should visit the link.
Real Density is more useful than simple Population Density measure. It measure arable land. So a country may have low population density but no arable land. Another country may have many many many many many man ypeople but all the open land is arable. No mountains, no deserts, just cropland.
Desu JIT is "Just In Time" manufacturing.
Or JIT food production. Modern supermarkets in America have no storage space. No warehouse. Everything is in route all the time. The trucks stop and so does your dinner.
Most countries with high populations tend to have high density of arable land. Countries with low populations tend to have low densities of arable land. You can only have a high population if you have a lot of arable land.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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