by MrBill » Fri 08 Sep 2006, 03:05:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'M')r. Bill,
Do you agree with Mogambo that gold and silver are good investments?
buy low, sell high, trite advice, I know, but it works...
I do believe in much of what TGM says, and he is entertaining, but behind his humourous fascade is some serious homework and analysis. I agree about the money supply issue. That is something I missed when interest rates were headed lower and we flirted with recession after the Dot.Con crash. I was SO DUMB I actually sold my house in London thinking we might be in for a global recession, and of course as we all know, housing prices only went up with interest rates going down. Why? That additional money supply finding its way into housing prices and other assets as well as jobs. If folks have jobs they can service their mortgages and if interest rates are even lower, so much the better. I am the loser!
But I actually owned gold at $285 an ounce back in 1998, but it was costing me $1 dollar per month to roll it over. That is $96 an ounce for the last 8-years. A lot of money for an asset that does not produce income. And for at least part of that time inflation looked like it was going lower not higher, so the hedge against inflation was not necessary. Of course, post-9/11 that dynamic changed, but ALL commodity prices benefited, not just gold and silver from those low interest rates, stimulative fiscal policy and loose monetary policies from the FED and the BOJ.
So I guess what many miss when they read his rants is that he is promoting saving and getting out of debt first, and then he is advocating buying gold, silver and oil as a hedge against rising inflation and a falling dollar. I cannot recommend someone skip the saving and getting out of debt parts to buy gold and silver first and foremost. It should be a part of your investment portfolio which also includes your primary residence, bought and paid for, as well as income generating assets. YOu can then hedge that income against inflation after you have earned it.
But over time, I have become more pessimistic about the whole US economy and the state of the union to be sure. Bad news for me as I am paid in dollars. I can hedge against a falling dollar, but each month my salary will be worth less. Meanwhile the Canadian dollar has leaped 40% in the past few years as real-estate prices in my home Alberta have climbed. And I am under-invested. That is of more immediate concern to me than gold and silver prices, but they are linked to be sure.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.