[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'Y')es, and my friend talked a lot about how they were doing that, and the challenges and insanity involved, during that time. 1-2 year lag is what he says now, and I believe him. He said he is expecting rapid declines because of all the production going offline now, and that if demand rebounds it is going to be a nightmare because of that lag, and that there's no way we will ever get back to late 2005 levels again.

[AirlinePilot]

Gee look what has happened since mid 2008? Make sure you look at ALL the data IN CONTEXT Oily. It matters, it really does.

[AirlinePilot]

I'm not saying we CANT turn it back on quickly. What I'm saying is there are numerous indicators now and coming which do not point to the likleyhood that it will happen rapidly. Not in light of the decline we may already be experiencing. I tend to believe that decline is here. if you dont believe that point, than I can see how you may think we are still in BAU which may result in a rapid ramp up when demand signals return to growth.

I just cant share that opinion right now.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') OF,
We are not talking about Stocks, we are talking about what is happening right now with production and how that changes moving forward in light of present and likely future economic and financial markets.

[AirlinePilot]

Stocks are increasing because demand has come back and due to the contango which has existed since last fall. It got quite profitable since around Jan of this year. Also the refining margins were pretty dreadful until recently which had a further stockpiling effect due to reluctant refiners. Do you not read pup55's thread each week?? That's why stocks are large. Again, give it some time, it will be self correcting. The production dropoff is not commensurate with demand, its about price.

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'I')t's not just the rig workers getting laid off. High paid young engineers are losing jobs, too. The quarterly retention bonuses and competition between companies for talent of a couple of years ago are a thing of the past. Now they are lucky to have jobs at all.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'S')tocks are increasing because demand has come back.

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'S')tocks are increasing because demand has come back.

[AirlinePilot]

Poor choice of words OF, my fault. By that statement I meant demand has fallen. Please also publish the other contributory reasons in my post. Cherry picking is a really low form of debate. If you had bothered to read the entire sentence you'd see it was purely a mistake of word choice on my part. Instead of attacking you could have just as easily asked me a simple question for clarification. Just something to ponder.


AAA,

No sweat man, I got quite a thick skin

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')he last time we had a significant decline in world oil consumption in the early 80's, it took at least 5 years for consumption to get back to its pre-decline levels.

[copious.abundance]

TheDude, have you forgotten the new CAFE standards?
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/uptospe ... -deba.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Department of Transportation set the combined fuel economy standard for the 2011 model year at 27.3 miles per gallon. That would be an increase of two miles per gallon from the 2010 industry average for cars and light trucks, which include pickups and sport utility vehicles, according to the government.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'P')lease also publish the other contributory reasons in my post. Cherry picking is a really low form of debate.

[TheAntiDoomer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')othing analogous can be done this time around for fuel switching for electricity; for vehicles (Pickens Plan) this will likely stay in its niche, judging from the paltry size of the AFV fleet, which shows little sign of skyrocketing any time soon.

[shortonoil]

AirlinePilot said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tocks are increasing because demand has come back and due to the contango which has existed since last fall. It got quite profitable since around Jan of this year. Also the refining margins were pretty dreadful until recently which had a further stockpiling effect due to reluctant refiners. Do you not read pup55's thread each week?? That's why stocks are large. Again, give it some time, it will be self correcting. The production dropoff is not commensurate with demand, its about price.

[copious.abundance]

Some people still don't get it.

To say that the present crashed prices and high stocks exist because of a contango ignores the question: Why is there a contango?

There is a contango because there is a near-term glut of supply on the market (see OECD stocks chart above). The contango exists because of the glut. The glut does not exist because of the contango.

[shortonoil]

Oily said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome people still don't get it.

To say that the present crashed prices and high stocks exist because of a contango ignores the question: Why is there a contango?

There is a contango because there is a near-term glut of supply on the market (see OECD stocks chart above). The contango exists because of the glut. The glut does not exist because of the contango.

[AirlinePilot]

I get it Short, You put it succintly and clearly as usual. I fail to see how folks conitnue to completely avoid, or act as if they are blind to the greater events in the world economies. I agree there appears that on the near term horizon a large dislocation in the bond market is going to occur and the situation we are currently in becomes markedly worse. The million dollar question though is at what point does the meager decline in global demand become outstripped by natural decline and our inability to afford going after the more expensive and difficult to refine oil.

All this stuff going on at the moment is the preamble to that greater problem. Folks like OF cant even see past the current economic issues let alone what it means to go into permanent production decline amidst a completely reshaped banking and lending world.

I truly do get it.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]Oily said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome people still don't get it.

To say that the present crashed prices and high stocks exist because of a contango ignores the question: Why is there a contango?

There is a contango because there is a near-term glut of supply on the market (see OECD stocks chart above). The contango exists because of the glut. The glut does not exist because of the contango.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'A')re you shitting me dude? Last time I looked half the hulking vehicles on the road were SUVs. You mean to tell me replacing those SUV's with Hybrids/PHEVs/hell even corollas and yaris's wont make a ginormous difference?

[shortonoil]

AirlinePilot said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he million dollar question though is at what point does the meager decline in global demand become outstripped by natural decline and our inability to afford going after the more expensive and difficult to refine oil.