[Teclo]

Just emailed my MP to bitch about peak oil

I'm writing because the government isn't always the best at recognising problems in good time, although have been getting better. Global warming has now started to be taken seriously but there is another more urgent problem developing, one which will take place on your watch so to speak! So this is part helpful tip off, part hoping to raise awareness of the issue

The problem is that of oil. Demand is beginning to overtake supply and the prices are responding accordingly. This has been called Peak Oil

The thing is the oil price rises aren't just a blip but the underlying fundamentals are the reason. The rate of oil field discovery peaked in the 60's and each year less is found so that we now burn four barrels of oil for every one discovered. It follows we can't continually increase production to meet the demand of the world, not when demand rises with GDP and the world is growing fast and emerging nations such as China and India need oil to fuel their economies and lifestyles. So the collision course between supply and demand is what is driving the oil prices, there is no mystery behind it

Some try to say that technology will solve it but unfortunately the entire world infrastructure is built around oil and oil based products. This can't be changed easily or quickly so oil shortages will occur before any transition can be made. Increased supply isn't possible because the world is maxed out. New oil projects coming on line have to first replace declines in older oil fields before adding any net global supply

What makes this situation worse is that not only is oil supply not rising any more, its predicted to start falling due to the oil peak curve discovered by American M Hubbert. In the late 50's he realised oil production follows a curve. Using this he predicted the US would peak in 1970 which it did and has fallen ever since. So others simply scaled up the model to analyse when the world would peak. After years of research the consensus is any time soon

The first indicator of world oil peak will be demand outrunning supply which is happening at the present moment
As a Brit I noticed North Sea oil peaked in 2000 and is declining about 7% a year. Around the world many other oil producing nations have also had this happen to them

I was down my local pub last night and overheard some people talking about it, so I though what about the government. Do they know? I suppose recognition would come when oil prices became so high that the issue is forced out, although that might be a PR disaster

The realistic response to having limited oil supplies means conservation combined with redirecting science/industry to seek out alternative technologies and energy sources, which will be an ongoing intensive effort. In the meantime it would be great if we could avoid any resource based military conflicts

Thanks for allowing me to bring this to your attention. The implications of peak oil are far reaching and we're a democracy so they should be debated

PS The arguments against peak oil are rapidly crumbling in the face of static supply and rising prices because they are either based on assumptions or economic theory that ignores geology but I didn't find it to be rocket science

[maverickdoc]

Good job Teclo. I find they tend to be a bit more receptive if you fax them. Persistence is the key

[aahala]

The problem is not primarily government officials are truly ignorant about declining fossil fuels. It's not pure ignorance, it's intentional ignorance.

Politicans generally want to be reelected or reappointed, and there are few volunteers to tell a widow of her husband's recent death.

[mrniceguy]

Great letter, please post any replies. If you don't get a reply you could try http://www.faxyourmp.com/ you type the message and a fax is automatically sent to your MP. I got a reply within a week http://peakoil.com/fortopic5294-15.html

[maverickdoc]

http://peakoil.com/fortopic5294-0-asc-30.html

[Wildwell]

I don't think letters should just be to MPs. How about motoring groups, pressure groups, big business, transport interests, councils and so on?