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Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 13:55:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'M')aybe we can make people pay the true cost of living in vulnerable regions?

The Market will move people out of hurricane-prone areas.

Instead, we subsidize the construction of millions of plywood boxes in Hurricane Alley and then "declare a national emergency" every time someone gets hurt.

Well if you bail people out every time they make a mistake, they are going to keep making the same mistake, no?

Hurricanes are a perfect example of moral hazard.

New Orleans would NOT have been rebuilt by market forces. But if you pour enough federal tax money into a sinking hole, you can make miracles happen. :roll:


Yeah, all those rich developers 'took' the coast line and built condos for the weathy, with taxpayers money. Screw the poor ppl. :razz:


If you can't afford to live in a place. You can't afford to live in a place. MOVE. Sticking around in an overpriced neighborhood will only keep you poor. I understand it's hard to move but it's much harder to live your entire life in a place that is making you poor.

As the poor leave Florida, their numbers would decline. That would push up their wages, making them capable of affording the hurricane insurance. Economics 101.

If the rich want to waste their money building and rebuilding condos, they are free to do so...so long as they pay to rebuild it themselves. Taking federal tax money to rebuild unsustainable developments is both morally reprehensible and utterly foolish public policy.

The parts of New Orleans worth saving will be saved by the Market. The port of the city is of extremely high value. Thus, it will attract investment and stick around. The slums 10 feet below sea level are a ridiculous liability that adds nothing to the value of the city. The market would never rebuild those places. It makes far more sense to hand the poor a check and let them move to higher ground. This would benefit society (reduce liabilities) and improve social equality (lets poor people move into safer places).

It was the subsidies to development in low lying areas that created the disaster, not mother nature.

If people had to pay the true cost of living in flood plains, fewer people would live there. It's not complicated.
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 15:44:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') never understood why Americans in those places don't build proper houses with y'know, bricks 'n concrete. If I lived in hurricane alley my house would be small sustainable and built like a fortress.


Well, historically brick construction was very expensive in the South, as the bricks had to be imported from the North.

Also, many of these old homes were built before concrete block construction was developed.

Also in hurricanes, the damage doesn't really come from "blown down" houses -- it comes from flooding. What New Orleans really needed a few decades ago was a new levy system on par with what the Dutch do.

Unfortunately, the South historically hasn't had much industry, and therefore not much in the way of high quality infrastructure.

Overall, you're point is a valid one. What we really need are strict building codes. It *is* possible to build a hurricane proof home on a barrier island.. it's also much more expensive. And as we all know, home Developers are capitalists -- they want to make the most money possible with the least amount of money invested..

It's also impractical to have every building in a flood zone built on stilts. Much of the city of Tampa is in a flood zone, and if a hurricane ever comes up the bay it would be a real mess.
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 18:46:01

The insurance companies are freaking out because they insure based on long term averages. But those averages are all going nuts. Every year there is a new 100 or 500 ...year event, sometimes happening year after year or every other year in the same place.

I have no particular sympathy for most insurance companies since they are generally slime bags.

But this is not a surprising development, even though they should pay back all those payments people have been making to them for years.

New Orleans is absolutely unique but also absolutely doomed. It isn't just below sea level--it's sinking. Meanwhile, ocean levels are rising and storms are getting more intense and more frequent. Talk about a prescription for disaster. If the levies had been properly maintained and upgraded, Katrina should not have had such devastating effects. But eventually a storm would hit just the right way at just the right strength to swamp the place. And it will happen again. I think some of the lowest parts need to be abandoned and turned into parks now, with full compensation to the residents. Then there needs to be some plan to move the rest of the city steadily to some location that is not quite so precarious.
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby Blacksmith » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 18:58:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', ' ') It *is* possible to build a hurricane proof home on a barrier island.. it's also much more expensive.


Only if you can find some way of stabilizing the barrier island.
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby AgentR » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 20:57:55

When you build million dollar mansions in an area that is well suited for $20,000 shacks on stilts; what do people expect ?
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby pedalling_faster » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 22:06:03

you know, if State Farm honors all their existing contracts, without committing any bad faith actions, they'd be doing better than a lot of other companies, like Unum Provident.

i'd rather see an insurance company get realistic about the extent of what they can & can't cover, rather than see them collect premiums and then say, "oh, we don't cover that." (basically what happens in a bad faith case.)
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby Denny » Fri 30 Jan 2009, 23:20:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', 'y')ou know, if State Farm honors all their existing contracts, without committing any bad faith actions, they'd be doing better than a lot of other companies, like Unum Provident.

i'd rather see an insurance company get realistic about the extent of what they can & can't cover, rather than see them collect premiums and then say, "oh, we don't cover that." (basically what happens in a bad faith case.)


Yes.

An insurer is in essence a well educated gambler. A gambler can, and should, fold when the time is right. Others will take its place at the right price.
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby DJSNOLA » Sat 31 Jan 2009, 01:17:30

Ill take living in Nola anyday over cities in the middle of a desert; i.e. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tuscon, Etc
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Sat 31 Jan 2009, 01:49:39

I thought if you didn't have insurance, you couldn't own a home.

If all of the insurance companies pulled out, wouldn't that mean that everyone if florida was be kicked out of their homes?
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 31 Jan 2009, 01:55:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'I') thought if you didn't have insurance, you couldn't own a home.

If all of the insurance companies pulled out, wouldn't that mean that everyone if florida was be kicked out of their homes?


No. It would just mean that a bank wouldn't loan you money on it. So...you can own exactly as much house as you can afford to own, and possibly lose, outright.
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby katkinkate » Sat 31 Jan 2009, 07:14:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..What do you propose, abandoning California and the entire Southeast?


They should build for hurricanes (SE) and earthquakes (W). Buildings not designed to withstand L5 hurricane or a L8 earthquake should have higher insurance premiums or no insurance. When they are destroyed, rebuilding to the higher standards should be mandatory. The houses are lost because the building industry cut corners on standards to maximise their profit and no-one is holding them accountable.
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby MarkJ » Sat 31 Jan 2009, 08:10:11

The problem with many modern building codes isn't the codes, but the lack of multiple thorough inspections & enforcement of codes and licensing.

Many important things like fastener type/size/coatings, nailing schedules, hurricane ties/clips/fasteners, foundation ties are often overlooked.

We often use 2X to 3X times the nails other builders use on a similar sized project. Where they use small diameter bright finish clipped head nails, we often use 2X to 3X times the nails, plus we use larger diameter round-head, cement coated, galvanized or ring shank nails.

We don't live in an area noted for high winds, but we use hurricane ties/clips, heavier roof sheathing, better/more ice/water barrier, heavier dimensional shingles etc.

Of course the biggest challenge for developers and spec home builders is finding customers willing to pay substantially more money for a better quality home.Generally speaking, buyers don't place a great deal of value on anything covered by earth, concrete, drywall, sheathing, nor anything hidden in the basement, utility closet or mechanical room until it fails.

People often brag about granite, marble, tile, hardwood etc, but they generally don't brag about their soil quality, drainage, footings, basement waterproofing, concrete quality/thickness, sheathing, vapor/water/ice barriers, flashing, ventilation, electrical, plumbing, fasteners, brackets, hardware, adhesives, sealants etc.

Since many people hire a general contractor or builder to build a custom home, they have nobody to blame but themselves if they decide to spend more money on land, square footage and luxury features than build quality.
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Re: Just Like A Bad Neighbor - State Farm Dumps You

Unread postby Byron100 » Sat 31 Jan 2009, 09:59:46

The Florida homeowner insurance crisis is not a new one. It started way back in 1992 when Hurricane Andrew roared through southern Dade, destroying tens of thousands of homes. It wasn't long after that before the smaller insurance companies went under, and the larger companies such as State Farm realized they had kept their rates far too low for too long.

So they started raising the rates. When I bought my house in near Ft. Lauderdale in 1994, my homeowner's rate was about $600, a bit less than I'm paying now. Of course, I had to take out flood insurance to the tune of $400, so I was a paying about a grand for insurance that first year. Each year after that, it went up, and the rate of increase actually accelerated around the turn of the century. My rates soared past a $1000, then $1500, and then cracked the $2000 barrier a couple years before we sold. At the time of sale, I think we were paying $2400 for watered-down insurance (5% deductible, etc), while the flood was around $450. Had we stayed one more year longer, we'd had to pay another 20-25% on top of that. Ouch!

Tyler is right - if an area is too expensive to live in, MOVE. Boy, that was the smartest move I ever made...LOL. Came up to Atlanta and found out I could insure a house bigger than the one in Ft. Lauderdale for the amazing sum of $630 a year, no flood needed. I thought I had died and gone to heaven...hehe.

If a Cat 5 were to ever hit South Florida head-on, it would mean the end of private homeowner's insurance. This would devastate the real estate market to the point that approximately 40% of Florida's population would have to move out of the state - as so few people would be able to afford to own a house without a mortgage - and there simply wouldn't be enough rentals to take up the slack. They might end up passing a law stating that mortgage companies could no longer require hurricane insurance coverage for existing note holders, but there would be no new mortgages written, that's for sure...LOL.

When it comes down to it, Florida is going to have to revert to a backwater, low-population state dominated by cheapo (i.e. disposable) $20,000 shacks for snowbirds to winterover in, as opposed to the massively over-developed nightmare it is today.

I, for one, can't wait for that to happen. Bring on the Cat 5s! :twisted:
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