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Jay Hanson speaks up

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby NEOPO » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 21:09:44

Go Sarah Go 8)

Compare a chart of human population from 1700 A.D. to the present to a chart of oil production along the same timeline.
Coincidence?
Genetic harmony?

I think not!!!! :-D

Yeah - we get along as long as there is a promise of more.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 21:10:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SarahC1975', '
')
Highly cooperative at killing other dumb animals who are not members of our "tribe."

Sarah C.

Let me guess: a supporter of group selection theory?
Care to take my first point which will be restated for clarity:
What happens when the original rapists/looters/killers kill everyone else?
Why don't they turn against each other leading to the eventual demise of the tribe?
Of course you might argue that this is about to happen now . And yet from the original exposition of the "genetic model of human behaviour" one would expect this to have happened long time ago.
I am still waiting for an answer .... and a mechanism for all those genes.
It appears that even more elaborate (?false) constructs are proposed in the literature to account for the genetic basis of cooperation/competition.
And yet with the sequences of the human genome known ... no one still has a clue where such genes (altruistic or non altruistic) are located or which ones they are .
Till one provides a plausible biochemical mechanism for the operation of these genes, and show how they increase reproductive fitness, naive genetic models of human behaviour are simply mental, unsupported by data constructs.
And the whole business is reminsicent of an early episode in the history of Christianity, when people gave up on everything waiting for the Apocalypse.
Last edited by EnergySpin on Sun 09 Oct 2005, 21:24:33, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby SarahC1975 » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 21:19:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') question whether the increasingly violent, lying, cheating, raping group would successfully produce more offspring which live to reproductive age than the cooperative group. This seems unlikely to me.


All members of the White or European race raise their hand.

All Native Americans raise their hand.

Why the discrepancy? Because the Whites were the better killers. Not coincidentally, their descendents (that's us) are acting in a simliar fashion this very day.

Sad but true.

Sarah C.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby Jack » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 21:31:36

All of this talk of genetics seems to be akin to sophism.

Consider:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')THACA, N.Y. -- Chimpanzees and humans share a common ancestor, and even today 99 percent of the two species' DNA is identical. But since the paths of man and chimp diverged 5 million years ago, that one percent of genetic difference appears to have changed humans in an unexpected way: It could have made people more prone to cancer.


Link

So, the key point is that the two species' DNA is 99% identical.

We don't begin to know what makes the critical difference between the two. We are not unlike Plato who described man as a featherless biped, only to have Diogenes show up with a plucked chicken which he described as Plato's man!

This suggests that no one knows - not yet anyway - whether man (or chimpanzee) is hard-wired for conflict or cooperation. Historical evidence suggests that man cooperates only to gain ascendancy over rivals.

So, genetic discussions aside, Hanson's predictions cannot be dismissed. Perhaps his genetic model is more akin to epicycles in the Ptolemaic universe than to the more accurate Newtonian mechanisms; but that does not mean that reasonable predictions can not be made.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby SarahC1975 » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 21:34:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SarahC1975', '
')
Highly cooperative at killing other dumb animals who are not members of our "tribe."

Sarah C.

Let me guess: a supporter of group selection theory?
Care to take my first point which will be restated for clarity:
What happens when the original rapists/looters/killers kill everyone else?


The tribe will break into two (or more) new tribes. Whichever tribe is more effective at eliminating the other will see its genes passed on. The other goes the way of the Dodo bird.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby rogerhb » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 21:37:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')ll of this talk of genetics seems to be akin to sophism.

Consider:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')THACA, N.Y. -- Chimpanzees and humans share a common ancestor, and even today 99 percent of the two species' DNA is identical..


So, the key point is that the two species' DNA is 99% identical.
Historical evidence suggests that man cooperates only to gain ascendancy over rivals.

So, genetic discussions aside, Hanson's predictions cannot be dismissed. Perhaps his genetic model is more akin to epicycles in the Ptolemaic universe than to the more accurate Newtonian mechanisms; but that does not mean that reasonable predictions can not be made.


I was reading the other day that chimps and gorillas only have 30 years left on this planet.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby SarahC1975 » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 21:37:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')ll of this talk of genetics seems to be akin to sophism.

Consider:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')THACA, N.Y. -- Chimpanzees and humans share a common ancestor, and even today 99 percent of the two species' DNA is identical. But since the paths of man and chimp diverged 5 million years ago, that one percent of genetic difference appears to have changed humans in an unexpected way: It could have made people more prone to cancer.


Link

So, the key point is that the two species' DNA is 99% identical.

We don't begin to know what makes the critical difference between the two. We are not unlike Plato who described man as a featherless biped, only to have Diogenes show up with a plucked chicken which he described as Plato's man!

quote]

(Wo)man is hardwired for both. Have you ever competed with somebody in school or at work? Of course you have. Have you ever cooperated with somebody in school or at work. Of course you have.

Sarah C.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby seldom_seen » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 21:41:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SarahC1975', 'A')ll members of the White or European race raise their hand.

All Native Americans raise their hand.

Why the discrepancy? Because the Whites were the better killers. Not coincidentally, their descendents (that's us) are acting in a simliar fashion this very day.

Sad but true.

Were they better killers or did they just have better killing technology? American Indians are by and large much better hunters than Europeans.

You're also discounting the role that disease played. You have provided a very simplistic view of European conquest of N. America. I would reccomend reading Guns Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 21:52:28

Jack the discussions about genetic are not irrelevant because in his reasoning the predictions appear them as an inevitable conclusion of his genetic behavioural model.
It is only if the genetic model is correct that the conclusions are true (and inevitable).

If the genetic model is incorrect,then there is no guarantee that his conclusions/predictions will be verified or not because No reasonable conclusions can be drawn from a wrong model . A false statement implies all other statements (true or false).
If the model is wrong one is left reasoning about his own system of beliefs which existed before the model was created wich puts us back to square one: a thermonuclear fuckfest extravaganza is only of the possible outcomes but not the only one and various people give different degrees of possiblity to this outcome. I do not know ... but if one holds this statement to be 100% certain given a wrong model, then one is not defending it on the basis of reason but on the basis of faith.

Closing note: It is interesting that you used the epicycle example. This is a n example of totally wrong model; it is not like the relation of Newtonian mechanics to Quantum Physics where the former is an approximation to the later. I wonder what Freud would have said :roll:
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby Jack » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 22:46:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'C')losing note: It is interesting that you used the epicycle example. This is a n example of totally wrong model; it is not like the relation of Newtonian mechanics to Quantum Physics where the former is an approximation to the later.


Of course it is an incorrect model. That is precisely why I chose it. Note that it gives reasonably accurate predictions with some flaws.

This is to illustrate that even if the details of Hanson's model are flawed, as you propose, the model may give useful information.

Since fundamental issues - i.e., which genetic switches cause the differences between chimpanzee and human - are undefined, I contend that we do not yet have a genetic analog of Newtonian mechanics in hand.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby SarahC1975 » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 22:53:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SarahC1975', 'A')ll members of the White or European race raise their hand.

All Native Americans raise their hand.

Why the discrepancy? Because the Whites were the better killers. Not coincidentally, their descendents (that's us) are acting in a simliar fashion this very day.

Sad but true.

Were they better killers or did they just have better killing technology? American Indians are by and large much better hunters than Europeans.
reccomend reading Guns Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond.


Is there a difference? The Whites figured out a way to use the resources available to them to create better killing technology. Instead of labeling them "the best killers" we can label them "the best exploiters of resources used to kill."

Alternatively, you could label them "those most willing to kill" or those "most enthusiastic to kill." Hypothetically speaking, even if they weren't as good at it from a purely technical standpoint, their willingness or enthusiasm for it produced the same result.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 22:57:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'C')losing note: It is interesting that you used the epicycle example. This is a n example of totally wrong model; it is not like the relation of Newtonian mechanics to Quantum Physics where the former is an approximation to the later.


Of course it is an incorrect model. That is precisely why I chose it. Note that it gives reasonably accurate predictions with some flaws.

This is to illustrate that even if the details of Hanson's model are flawed, as you propose, the model may give useful information.

Since fundamental issues - i.e., which genetic switches cause the differences between chimpanzee and human - are undefined, I contend that we do not yet have a genetic analog of Newtonian mechanics in hand.

And clock that has stopped ticking will show the correct time twice a day.
What are the prediction it has given so far?
I have not seen them .... he ran for the hills 4 years ago and he started posting out of the blue a few weeks ago.
And why isn't anyone answering the questions I asked about his "model"?
I said at the beginning that genetic science aside, his models leads to self-contradictory conclusions .... IMHO it is like saying we will never run out of oil. An obviously incorrect model, but it has too generated correct predictions. Jack I think you might be a cornocupian .....
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby Jack » Sun 09 Oct 2005, 23:40:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'J')ack I think you might be a cornocupian .....


Tut, tut. There's no need to get nasty. 8)
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 10 Oct 2005, 08:55:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SarahC1975', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') question whether the increasingly violent, lying, cheating, raping group would successfully produce more offspring which live to reproductive age than the cooperative group. This seems unlikely to me.


All members of the White or European race raise their hand.

All Native Americans raise their hand.

Why the discrepancy? Because the Whites were the better killers. Not coincidentally, their descendents (that's us) are acting in a simliar fashion this very day.

Sad but true.

Sarah C.


Culture. Not genetics.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby MacG » Mon 10 Oct 2005, 09:42:08

Nobody has mentioned memetics here yet? The second replicator. Suggested by Dawkins already in -76. Susan Blackmore's "The Meme Machine" provide a good review of what has been done since then. The theory of memetics manage to explain quite a lot which genetics fail to explain. There are serious reasons to belive that human genes has been in the back seat the last 150 000-200 000 years, while the second replicator -memes- has been in the drivers seat.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 10 Oct 2005, 09:51:22

Nobody has mentioned it because we're busy arguing about genetics! But I agree with you McG, memes are as important as genes, in human societies. Certainly modern society promotes "me first!" memes over cooperative memes, even though these "me first!" memes probably won't be successful in the long run. Without a massive infrastructure to support them, "me first!" individuals will have a hard time surviving unless they can learn to cooperate.
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby Doly » Mon 10 Oct 2005, 10:26:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')ithout a massive infrastructure to support them, "me first!" individuals will have a hard time surviving unless they can learn to cooperate.


You are oversimplfying here. Even the most selfish people often cooperate with others, if they understand that it's in their own self interest. And the most extreme of selflessness would drive somebody to neglect themselves, which isn't very pro-survival either. I find that a good balance between selfishness and selflessness is what gives people the best chances of survival.

And don't forget that it's the actions, not the reasons behind the actions, what build your future. (In other words, the guy that cooperates because it's in his own selfish interest gets the same reward as the guy that cooperates for the love of cooperation.)
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby EnergySpin » Mon 10 Oct 2005, 10:34:49

I do have a problem digesting memetics which certain people might dismiss as nitpicking. The theory of memetics is a theoretical tool devised by Dawkins along the lines of Mendelian genetics . Mendel Hypothesized that genes exist (no one knew about DNA) as hidden variables in statistical models that described his plant breeding experiments .
It took 50-60 years before they were given a physical basis (i.e. the work of Avery in the pneumoniococcus in the 40s).
The problem with memes is that by definition no such straightforward physical basis seems to exist. Hence at best "memes" have an epistemological and not an ontological basis i.e. they allow us to think about the natural world but do not exist in the real world (which is different than genes sicne they do have both these aspects).

This is not to be interpreted as an attack against the persistence or the influence of cultural norms over genes in certain circumstances. In fact I can think of at least one cultural practise that is manifesting it self with 100% certainty in succesive generations i.e. circumcision in Jews and certain other religious groups. There are other genes (genetic hemochromatosis for example) which even if present do not necessarily lead to the disease (the technical term is incomplete penetrance).
If one were to follow a naive genetic determinism (ala JH) he or she would have to conclude that genes harbour a gene that creates the behaviour of male circumcision whereas genetic hemochromatosis would be given a genetic or a non-genetic basis.
As it stands ... solutions to the equation gene+environment = behaviour
will be probably never be obtained in a clear form. We are complex systems, interacting in a complex world. It is foolish to assume that one could reduce everything to a small set of guiding principles. At the very best he or she can only arrive to heuristics . But heuristics and other approximative methods are only valid in a small domain. Walk out of the domain and you are saying non-sense
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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby EdF » Mon 10 Oct 2005, 16:14:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '.')..
The logical fallacy is claiming that the behavior of bacteria in a laboratory setting is comparable to human behavior. This error is called "reasoning by analogy" and is not much different than magical thinking.
...


bart,

I agree with everything in your message except this bit - what Hnason is doing is reasoning by example, rather than by analogy. To reason by analogy is to reason on the basis of similar relationships to their contexts of the things being compared (rather than apparent similarities of the objects themselves). It's stronger than the example you gave, and is not what Hanson is doing here. It's also not magical thinking, though it appears to approach it at times.

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Re: Jay Hanson speaks up

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 10 Oct 2005, 16:28:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')ithout a massive infrastructure to support them, "me first!" individuals will have a hard time surviving unless they can learn to cooperate.


You are oversimplfying here. Even the most selfish people often cooperate with others, if they understand that it's in their own self interest. And the most extreme of selflessness would drive somebody to neglect themselves, which isn't very pro-survival either. I find that a good balance between selfishness and selflessness is what gives people the best chances of survival.

And don't forget that it's the actions, not the reasons behind the actions, what build your future. (In other words, the guy that cooperates because it's in his own selfish interest gets the same reward as the guy that cooperates for the love of cooperation.)


Cooperation doesn't require selflessness, and I never said it did. Nope, never did. Cooperation can be entirely selfish. If I get along with others, and help them, they will likely help me in turn. This is different from what I'm referring to as "me first!" behavior which doesn't take into account how others will respond. Killing someone because you're angry with them or just feel like it, the ultimate in "me first" behavior, isn't likely to encourage others to support you.
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