[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '
')I doubt we will see a run on Barclays over the recent rumours. The media speculation has been too vague. Northern Rock was a real story. This is a case of wait-and-see, there will be many more like it. If a real story gets going, watch out. And remember that once a run starts, the bank is already dead. There is no regret to be had in joining in.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'S')eems they've now also set a maximum transfer limit of £1000/day from their current accounts. Sneaky!

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'I')t could some people rent payments a bit akward.....

[Grifter]

I believe there's more to come. What has been reported is only up until october.

Might be totally off the mark here but it seems like barclays may be acting in a similar way to oil companies when they discover large reserves of oil. They wait and increase their reserve figures over time.

In a similar way, a bank could discover large losses and then only account for them over time. If their turnover grows over comming years they can offset the losses slowly against their increased profit.

So next month I expect they will find another large sum for writedown and then again the month after. If everything continues as normal (economic growth) then problem solved if it all holds together long enough.

But what do I know? Only that something funny is going on with them.

[IslandCrow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grifter', 'I') believe there's more to come.

[IslandCrow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HydroLuver', 'Y')ou are assuming a 100% loss on all mortgages. That is not the case.

[Twilight]

The rumours of collapse were just that, rumours, and possibly market manipulation - see this.

Remember though that while not bad, these write-downs are to date. The value of those bonds continues to fall and they will inflict further losses as they do. Even AAA is toilet paper, ratings agencies are being implicated in this mess. The losses up there have only just begun.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Robert Peston, BBC Business Editor', 'H')ere is its retained exposure:

1) £3.8bn of exposure to “high grade” collateralised debt obligations linked to sub-prime, where the four-month write-downs seem to have been of the order of 16%;
2) £1.2bn of mezzanine exposure linked to sub-prime, where the write-downs have been of the order of 25%;
3) £5.4bn of “whole” sub-prime loans and a trading book of sub-prime loans and CDOs, which seems to have been written down 7%;
4) Minimal exposure to SIVs and SIV-lites of £700m, where the write-down has been 9%.

Could the value of all that stuff fall further? Of course.

However, if I have some residual anxiety about Barclays it is about its £7.3bn exposure to the private-equity deals carried out at the peak of the market in the spring of this year.

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