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PeakOil is You

Insane! Oil is not going to run out!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Insane! Oil is not going to run out!

Unread postby common_sense » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 15:38:07

Oil is not going to run out.

Simple fact is that we've done mostly land drilling, with some offshore drilling.

Even in this insane scenario we completely run out in twenty years, there is still the fact we can drill in the oceans.

Oh, right, you forgot about the oceans.

Further, you fail to take into account that in the next ten years we'll have viable alternative fuel sources.

Jesus Christ. I'm tired of this paranoid, end of the world crap. You folks are almost as bad as the nuclear war people.
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Re: Insane

Unread postby Motel » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 15:46:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('common_sense', 'O')il is not going to run out.

Phew.

Now that you've posted with this deep analogy everyone can breathe easy.
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Re: Insane

Unread postby lutherquick » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 15:48:57

Peak oil isn't about running out, it's about no growth of oil production... and later the contraction of output... peak is more about the end of growth...

True there will be alternatives, but nothing stores energy like oil, and does not need advanced tech to use it (compared to fusion)...

They say in 1 minute there is enough solar energy hitting the earth to power all man kinbd of 1 year...

I say nice, but what kind of infrustructure will you need to capture it...

Anyway, Peak Oil should be compared to a car tachometer, for the last 25 years we aproched the red line, then the last 10 years we are in the red line... point is, you can do it for a short time, after awhile you must back out of the red line or the system collpases...

Well, that's peak oil, we took too much out, over the edge for too long... now we need to back off or kill the fields...

There will be oil 150 years from now, but it will be a trickle... And I don't have faith the man will find a way before the panic... We will survive but as usual, a dollar too later and a dollar short...

Fusion, solar, wind, wave tech will all happen, but after some wars and some more stupid moves by more delusional presidents like Bush backed by the idiots who think oil will flow at a high rate forever...
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Re: Insane

Unread postby smiffy » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 15:53:18

sometimes its just a case of connecting all the dots.
You obviously cannot connect them?

senarios: 1. very little spare capacity
senarios: 2. Iran
senarios: 3. bad hurricane season gulf of mexico 2006
senarios: 4. Terror attack on oil facility in kuwait or saudia
senarios: 5. continued tensions in nigeria
senarios: 6. more attacks on Iraqi oil facilitys.
senarios: 7. massive tactical strike by Israeli air force on Iran (they will take us all with them, Israelis always told me whilst in Israel, they said: if we go, your coming with us!!!)
senarios:8. Run on US dollar (all hell breaks loose).

keep dreaming buddy, your fucked like the rest of us.
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Re: Insane

Unread postby jdumars » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 15:53:34

Please don't feed the trolls.

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Re: Insane

Unread postby KrellEnergySource » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 15:56:39

Was this sarcasm or your real thoughts?

The US land based oil IS used up, for all practical purposes. Would we be drilling even offshore if oil was plentiful on-shore?

If oil isn't going to run out because there's oil under the ocean, then surely you recognize that there would come a day when such oil would be used up...same as the land and then offshore oil? And how much would that ocean oil cost, assuming we have the ability to engineer and deploy whatever infrastructure would be needed to tap into that deep water oil?

Or are you saying that the average middle aged person has nothing to worry about? What about our young children and those yet to be born from our young children?

These past two years, we have gone from where the energy bills for homeowners have grown from painful to unmanageable. Many people are spending money on their gasoline and energy bills that used to be used for 'discretionary' spending that supports entire sectors of our economy, such as tourism and home improvement for 'fashion's' sake.

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Re: Insane

Unread postby Karl » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:17:29

It takes more than religious faith to believe that things are going to continue as they are.

Having displayed that faith perhaps the Apostle Paul's words are appropriate 'Eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we die'
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Re: Insane

Unread postby lateStarter » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:21:49

Do you know what is really insane? Oil crosses over 70 and the DOW is up around 200. The human race never ceases to amaze me. I hope that I manage to hold on for a few more years... The show should be (what is the word I'm looking for - astounding and yet extremely sad at the same time)... Hmm?
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Re: Insane

Unread postby clueless » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:32:44

Come on - I am supposed to be the clueless one !

A simple minded person should easily be able to figure this out. What separates the "American Consumer" from the rest of the world is the amount of hydrocarbons he consumes. Since the "American Consumer" is intent on having third world labor makes his things and loan him money to buy these things, the third world laborer will have US dollars to buy more things the "American Consumer" is intent on selling his lifestyle for. So, in effect, the "American Consumer" is digging his own grave, and we all get to sit back and watch it happen.

In short, in the near term anyway, the end is probably not at hand. What is at hand is the end of the "American Consumers" way of life. In the long term, unless they can figure out how to run tractor trailers and farm machinery on seawater, the world is in for some serious problems.

Keep a good eye on the Airlines and Automakers - That is the direction the "American Consumer" is heading...
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Re: Insane

Unread postby lateStarter » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:35:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Karl', 'I')t takes more than religious faith to believe that things are going to continue as they are.

Having displayed that faith perhaps the Apostle Paul's words are appropriate 'Eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we die'


Sorry, but those are not the words of Paul. He was 'quoting' a prevalent attitude at the time (maybe Epicureans). In other words, forget about anykind of afterlife - just do it (Nike)!
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Re: Insane

Unread postby clueless » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:38:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'D')o you know what is really insane? Oil crosses over 70 and the DOW is up around 200. The human race never ceases to amaze me. I hope that I manage to hold on for a few more years... The show should be (what is the word I'm looking for - astounding and yet extremely sad at the same time)... Hmm?


It is not insane if you control the government printing press, how much cash do you think the US government has stashed in offshore accounts to shore up the stock market ? We are in the midst of a Hitler like propoganda war which purpose is to create the biggest transfer of wealth in the history of the world. Bushy can't sell his war with Iran/Iraq if the "American Consumer" is losing all his money in the stock market can he ?
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Re: Insane

Unread postby Pops » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:39:12

<Pops slaps forehead>

Cripes! The oceans! Forgot all about those!

:lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('common_sense', 'Y')ou folks are almost as bad as the nuclear war people.


Yea all that bs about total war!
Hell, any thinking person knows that the best answer global warming is nucalr winter - Rush'll tel you that!

what a bunch of tree hugging babies.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Insane

Unread postby skeptic » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:43:38

"Oil is not going to run out."
Therefore there must be an infinite supply of it. Sounds reasonable. Not.

"Oh, right, you forgot about the oceans."
Er, No. Theres no point in drilling into the ocean unless one is drilling into a sedimentary basin of the correct age. Do you understand anything about oil formation? Plate tectonics? Seafloor spreading? There isnt a lot of the ocean thats WORTH drilling into. Its not as if oilfields are evenly distributed in the surface of the earth like blueberries in a muffin, just waiting to be discovered. They arent. The distribution is highly uneven and restricted to highly specific circumstances. We know what those are.

"Further, you fail to take into account that in the next ten years we'll have viable alternative fuel sources."
We know what they are and approximately how quickly they can be ramped up. Are you suggesting that other energy sources that we dont yet know about will magically appear?

"Jesus Christ. I'm tired of this paranoid, end of the world crap. You folks are almost as bad as the nuclear war people."
Your reactions to other peoples opinions are your problem. Learn to relax a little... letting yourself get wound up like this is bad for your health. I suggest you consult a psychiatrist about what is obviously a problem for you.

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" There is No Sanity Clause"
Chico Marx

Hmm.. I cant decide whether you are genuinely ignorant or a troll. I expect subsequent posts will tell. Welcome to the pleasuredome.
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Re: Insane

Unread postby dissimulo » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:45:16

Step 1 is denial. Feeling angry yet?
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Re: Insane

Unread postby clueless » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:46:42

What's a Troll ?
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Re: Insane

Unread postby TWilliam » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:51:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('common_sense', 'O')il is not going to run out.


No, it won't. But it will eventually reach the point where it requires more energy to extract than what is recovered, at which point extraction will cease, since no one in their right mind is going to spend two barrels of oil to recover one.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('common_sense', 'S')imple fact is that we've done mostly land drilling, with some offshore drilling.

Even in this insane scenario we completely run out in twenty years, there is still the fact we can drill in the oceans.

Oh, right, you forgot about the oceans.


Uhh... no, we haven't. You, on the otherhand, have apparently done zero research on the matter. If you had you would understand that deepwater drilling is a) exceedingly difficult and b) prohibitively expensive (and will only become moreso as energy prices continue to rise).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('common_sense', 'F')urther, you fail to take into account that in the next ten years we'll have viable alternative fuel sources.


You fail to understand that most so-called "alternatives" are in fact derivatives. No cheap oil means no cheap "alternatives".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('common_sense', 'J')esus Christ. I'm tired of this paranoid, end of the world crap. You folks are almost as bad as the nuclear war people.


Jesus Christ. I'm tired of idiotic pronouncements from people who know jack shit about what they speak of. Spend a year + researching these things like a great many of the folks on this site have done, then maybe you'll have something to say worth hearing.
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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Re: Insane

Unread postby Grifter » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:55:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'W')hat's a Troll ?


They lurk arround a message board for a while, think of an outrageous argument full of holes and await the torrent.

I don't know really either :P
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Re: Insane

Unread postby clueless » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 16:57:35

Why are there so many references to Jesus Christ ?
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Re: Insane

Unread postby Pops » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 17:02:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', 'P')lease don't feed the trolls.


Yea but it’s good for a laugh with the unlimited supply of oil up a buck today because no one thought about the oceans.


Clueless, the term troll comes from a fishing method where a bored and dejected fisherman drags a dead and smelly red herring through the water hoping something will take the bait and liven up his otherwise blissfully ignorant existence.

That opinion of course is no reflection on you Mr. or Ms. Common. :wink:
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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